44 Herkimer Rd · Utica, NY 13502

$249,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,236 sqft · MultiFamily · 144 Days on market

Built 1950 Good condition 3,978 sqft lot $112/sqft · at area comps Est $243k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Location, Location, Location! Prime high-visibility property located in a busy commercial area surrounded by the North Utica Shopping Center, Aldi, and Byrne Dairy. The building has been recently remodeled and converted from a dental office into versatile office space suitable for a range of business, residential, or investment uses. The second floor includes a one-bedroom apartment. Furniture on both floors will remain, offering a convenient, move-in-ready opportunity.

Key facts

• Recently remodeled
• 3,978 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• RECENTLY REMODELED
• VERSATILE OFFICE SPACE
• ONE-BEDROOM APARTMENT
• MOVE-IN-READY OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 7.7% in Utica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,453/mo this rent would consume 72% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1604% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $219,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.16%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,337
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: 2.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $23,303
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $102,587
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13502

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$725
• Net cashflow: $1,001

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,174	-5% $1,087	+0% $1,001	+5% $915	+10% $828
Rent	-10% $728	-5% $864	+0% $1,001	+5% $1,137	+10% $1,274
Rate	-1.0pp $1,127	-0.5pp $1,064	base $1,001	+0.5pp $936	+1.0pp $870

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$3,452
Total (2 units)			$3,453

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Patriot Cir Utica, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1451	$2,375	$1.64	44d	6	0.42mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,900 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-02-26
    price $249,900 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Location, Location, Location! Prime high-visibility property located in a busy commercial area surrounded by the North Utica Shopping Center, Aldi, and Byrne Dairy. The building has been recently remodeled and converted from a dental office into versatile office space suitable for a range of business, residential, or investment uses. The second floor includes a one-bedroom apartment. Furniture on both floors will remain, offering a convenient, move-in-ready opportunity.

18. 2026-01-26
    listed $289,900 Active 475-char remark

    Show marketing remark (475 chars)

    Location, Location, Location! Prime high-visibility property located in a busy commercial area surrounded by the North Utica Shopping Center, Aldi, and Byrne Dairy. The building has been recently remodeled and converted from a dental office into versatile office space suitable for a range of business, residential, or investment uses. The second floor includes a one-bedroom apartment. Furniture on both floors will remain, offering a convenient, move-in-ready opportunity.

19. 2024-12-06
    historical
20. 2024-12-05
    historical
21. 2024-10-23
    status Pending
22. 2024-10-01
    listed $179,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,315
• − Management: −$3,315
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $8,540
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,050
• After-tax cash flow: $9,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This multi-family property is in good condition with recent cosmetic updates, making it a move-in-ready investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint improves aesthetics and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint improves aesthetics and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica City School District
• NCES district ID: 3629370
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,834
• Composite: 29.01/100
• National rank: #6613
• State rank: #562 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Utica, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,037
• Household income: $57,835
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1604.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 368.3955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+39.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $249,900 CNYIS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $289,900 CNYIS
• 2024-12-06 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-12-05 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-10-23 Pending — CNYIS
• 2024-10-01 Listed $179,000 CNYIS