25 Carsdale Dr · Montgomery, NJ 08502

$1,599,900

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 5,034 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1994 1.87 ac lot $318/sqft · 10% above area Est $1453k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A rare architectural statement in the heart of Belle Mead! This exceptional NORTH EAST stone-front Center Hall Colonial blends timeless elegance with dramatic timber-frame design on a private cul-de-sac setting surrounded by preserved farmland and wooded views. Defined by soaring cathedral ceilings with exposed beams, walls of floor-to-ceiling windows, and a striking fireplace centerpiece, the home is filled with extraordinary natural light and an unmistakable sense of scale. Designed for both grand entertaining and everyday comfort, the expansive floor plan offers oversized, airy living spaces throughout, including a private first-floor den or office, an inviting loft retreat, and a flexible layout ideal for extended living or guest accommodations. The sunken living room with wet bar creates a sophisticated gathering space, while the beautifully appointed eat-in kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a center island with additional seating. Brand-new carpeting throughout enhance the home's move-in-ready appeal while preserving its unique architectural character and warmth. The seamless connection between indoor and outdoor living continues onto an expansive Trex deck overlooking serene woods, and Montgomery Township's preserved open landscape. A walkout basement with direct outdoor and garage access complete with plumbing rough-in for a future bath offers exceptional flexibility and future potential. Additional highlights include radiant heating, rear-facing solar panels for enhanced energy efficiency, expansive front and rear yards, and an unparalleled setting that combines privacy, architectural presence, and lifestyle appeal in one truly one-of-a-kind residence.

Key facts

• Cathedral ceilings
• Center hall colonial
• Exposed beams

Tags

• STONE-FRONT
• CENTER HALL COLONIAL
• PRIVATE CUL-DE-SAC
• TIMBER-FRAME ARCHITECTURE
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• EXPOSED BEAMS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached side-entry garage with inside access and garage door opener; Three garage spaces; Private parking
• Utilities: Well water; Private septic tank; Underground utilities; Natural gas for heating, cooling fuel and hot water
• Home design: Detached single-family home; North-facing main entrance
• Construction: Stone and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Window features include bay/bow windows, skylights and wood frames; Built in excellent condition (year built source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Private asphalt driveway; Above- and below-grade exterior structures; Walkout-level, partially finished full basement with interior, garage and outside entrances

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Wall oven; Stainless steel appliances; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Gourmet kitchen layout with island and eat-in area
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Wood floors; Partially carpeted
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms total (three full baths on the first upper level; one full bath on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heating fueled by natural gas; Central air conditioning with multiple units; Ceiling fans; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Jetted tub and walk-in shower in bathrooms; Breakfast area and eat-in gourmet kitchen with island; Open floor plan with family room off kitchen; Double/dual staircase; Exposed beams and beamed, vaulted, cathedral, and 2-story ceilings; Recessed lighting and skylights; Crown moldings; Wet/dry bar; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Store/office; Carpet and wood floors; Ceiling fans; Wood and log wall accents; Water treatment system
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Main floor laundry location

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $699 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.49M (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.49M (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Montgomery Township School District (rural): math 59% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #15 of 472 in NJ (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Hill Elementary School (813 students, 6% FRL); Montgomery Upper Middle School (math 55% / reading 77%, grade A-, #19 of 431 statewide, top 5%, 790 students, 5% FRL); Montgomery High School (math 52% / reading 75%, grade B-, #47 of 399 statewide, top 12%, 1,603 students, 4% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 678 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Somerset County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $785k; list at $1.60M implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,485,900 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.87%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,452,800
• List price: $1,599,900
• Delta: 10.13%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-214,536
• Equity at exit: $238,550

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-128,641
• Equity at exit: $138,330

Cash invested: $447,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08502

• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,390
• Tax from tax record: −$1,983 /mo · $23,798/yr
• Insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,120
• Net cashflow: $699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,975

Max offer price $1,599,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,604	-5% $1,152	+0% $699	+5% $246	+10% $-207
Rent	-10% $-475	-5% $112	+0% $699	+5% $1,286	+10% $1,873
Rate	-1.0pp $1,504	-0.5pp $1,106	base $699	+0.5pp $284	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $399,975
• Closing costs: $47,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1377 Canal Rd Unit 1336814P Princeton, NJ	5.0	4.0	4499	$14,859	$3.30	45d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,599,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,599,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,599,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,599,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,599,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on marketlisting id $1,599,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,599,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,599,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,599,900 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,599,900 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,599,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,599,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,599,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,599,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1,599,900 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $1,599,900 Active 1728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1739 chars)

    A rare architectural statement in the heart of Belle Mead! This exceptional NORTH EAST stone-front Center Hall Colonial blends timeless elegance with dramatic timber-frame design on a private cul-de-sac setting surrounded by preserved farmland and wooded views. Defined by soaring cathedral ceilings with exposed beams, walls of floor-to-ceiling windows, and a striking fireplace centerpiece, the home is filled with extraordinary natural light and an unmistakable sense of scale. Designed for both grand entertaining and everyday comfort, the expansive floor plan offers oversized, airy living spaces throughout, including a private first-floor den or office, an inviting loft retreat, and a flexible layout ideal for extended living or guest accommodations. The sunken living room with wet bar creates a sophisticated gathering space, while the beautifully appointed eat-in kitchen features stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a center island with additional seating. Brand-new carpeting throughout enhance the home's move-in-ready appeal while preserving its unique architectural character and warmth. The seamless connection between indoor and outdoor living continues onto an expansive Trex deck overlooking serene woods, and Montgomery Township's preserved open landscape. A walkout basement with direct outdoor and garage access complete with plumbing rough-in for a future bath offers exceptional flexibility and future potential. Additional highlights include radiant heating, rear-facing solar panels for enhanced energy efficiency, expansive front and rear yards, and an unparalleled setting that combines privacy, architectural presence, and lifestyle appeal in one truly one-of-a-kind residence.

17. 2026-05-12
    historical $1,599,900 1728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1141 chars)

    This EXCEPTIONAL NORTH EAST Stone-Front Center Hall Colonial tucked away on a private cul-de-sac in Belle Mead blends timeless elegance with dramatic timber-frame architecture, soaring cathedral ceilings, exposed beams, and stunning wooded views. Filled with natural light, the expansive layout offers oversized living spaces, a private first-floor office, loft retreat, and flexible accommodations ideal for entertaining or extended living. The sunken living room with wet bar and the beautifully updated eat-in kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and center island create inviting gathering spaces throughout. Brand-new carpeting enhances the home's move-in-ready appeal while preserving its warmth and architectural character. An expansive Trex deck overlooks preserved open space and serene woods, while the walkout basement with garage access and plumbing rough-in for a future bath offers endless potential. Additional highlights include radiant heating, rear-facing solar panels, expansive front and rear yards, and a truly one-of-a-kind setting that combines privacy, comfort, and architectural distinction.

18. 2026-05-12
    listed $1,599,900 Active 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1141 chars)

    This EXCEPTIONAL NORTH EAST Stone-Front Center Hall Colonial tucked away on a private cul-de-sac in Belle Mead blends timeless elegance with dramatic timber-frame architecture, soaring cathedral ceilings, exposed beams, and stunning wooded views. Filled with natural light, the expansive layout offers oversized living spaces, a private first-floor office, loft retreat, and flexible accommodations ideal for entertaining or extended living. The sunken living room with wet bar and the beautifully updated eat-in kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and center island create inviting gathering spaces throughout. Brand-new carpeting enhances the home's move-in-ready appeal while preserving its warmth and architectural character. An expansive Trex deck overlooks preserved open space and serene woods, while the walkout basement with garage access and plumbing rough-in for a future bath offers endless potential. Additional highlights include radiant heating, rear-facing solar panels, expansive front and rear yards, and a truly one-of-a-kind setting that combines privacy, comfort, and architectural distinction.

19. 2018-02-09
    soldstatus $785,000
20. 2018-02-05
    soldstatus $785,000 Closed
21. 2018-02-05
    soldstatus $785,000 Sold
22. 2018-02-05
    soldstatus $785,000 Sold
23. 2017-12-14
    historical
24. 2017-12-02
    historical Contingent - Other
25. 2017-10-05
    listed $799,000 Active
26. 2017-10-05
    listed $799,000 Active
27. 2017-10-05
    listed $799,000 Active
28. 2017-09-05
    historical
29. 2017-03-27
    listed $799,000
30. 1992-06-03
    soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $23,798 · $1,983/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $31,818 · $2,651/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,020/yr (+$668/mo · 33.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $178,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,619
• − Property taxes: −$23,798
• − Insurance: −$8,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,265
• − Management: −$14,265
• − Depreciation: −$46,543
• Taxable loss: −$18,181
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,363
• After-tax cash flow: $12,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3410590
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $152,313
• Composite: 64.96/100
• National rank: #506
• State rank: #15 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Montgomery

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,081

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 356,675 people
• By 2030: 367,194 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 386,571 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 401,708 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 438,898 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 448,170 · +25.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 46% White 42% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Subsaharan African 3% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Other Indo-European 14% Other Asian/Pacific 14% Chinese 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.8pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.00%
• Current HPI: 242.4984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1130.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $1,599,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $1,599,900 CJMLS
• 2026-05-12 Coming Soon $1,599,900 CJMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $1,599,900 GSMLS
• 2018-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $785,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-05 Sold (MLS) $785,000 TREND
• 2018-02-05 Sold (MLS) $785,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-05 Sold (MLS) $785,000 GSMLS
• 2017-12-14 Delisted — GSMLS
• 2017-12-02 Contingent — TREND
• 2017-10-05 Listed $799,000 TREND
• 2017-10-05 Listed $799,000 GSMLS
• 2017-10-05 Listed $799,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-09-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-03-27 Listed $799,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1992-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $23,798 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.