2811 Medlin Rd · East Mountain, TX 75645

$244,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 301 Days on market

Built 1998 $292/sqft · 109% above area Est $250k · at est. ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Set on a serene 8.5-/+ acre tract along Medlin Road in East Mountain, conveniently located between Gilmer and Longview, this well-maintained 1998-built double-wide mobile home offers spacious and comfortable country living. The home features a generous layout, including a huge living room perfect for entertaining or relaxing, and an oversized master bedroom with ample space for a sitting area or home office. Step outside and enjoy peaceful mornings or quiet evenings on either the front or side porch, surrounded by nature. A two-car carport provides covered parking, and a small barn adds extra storage or space for animals or hobbies. With plenty of open land and mature trees, this property combines privacy, functionality, and charm—ideal for those looking to enjoy rural life with convenience to town.

Key facts

• Huge living room
• Two-car carport
• Front or side porch

Tags

• 8.5 ACRE TRACT
• DOUBLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• HUGE LIVING ROOM
• OVERSIZED MASTER BEDROOM
• FRONT OR SIDE PORCH
• TWO-CAR CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-610 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (36.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (44.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (44.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#522 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,020 (44.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.67%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,173
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: -2.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $94,549
• Equity at exit: $220,625

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $309,024
• Equity at exit: $475,787

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75645

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 14.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,674/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $156,633

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Set on a serene 8.5-/+ acre tract along Medlin Road in East Mountain, conveniently located between Gilmer and Longview, this well-maintained 1998-built double-wide mobile home offers spacious and comfortable country living. The home features a generous layout, including a huge living room perfect for entertaining or relaxing, and an oversized master bedroom with ample space for a sitting area or home office. Step outside and enjoy peaceful mornings or quiet evenings on either the front or side porch, surrounded by nature. A two-car carport provides covered parking, and a small barn adds extra storage or space for animals or hobbies. With plenty of open land and mature trees, this property combines privacy, functionality, and charm—ideal for those looking to enjoy rural life with convenience to town.

2. 2026-02-24
   listed $244,900 Active
3. 2026-02-05
   price $244,900 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Set on a serene 8.5-/+ acre tract along Medlin Road in East Mountain, conveniently located between Gilmer and Longview, this well-maintained 1998-built double-wide mobile home offers spacious and comfortable country living. The home features a generous layout, including a huge living room perfect for entertaining or relaxing, and an oversized master bedroom with ample space for a sitting area or home office. Step outside and enjoy peaceful mornings or quiet evenings on either the front or side porch, surrounded by nature. A two-car carport provides covered parking, and a small barn adds extra storage or space for animals or hobbies. With plenty of open land and mature trees, this property combines privacy, functionality, and charm—ideal for those looking to enjoy rural life with convenience to town.

4. 2025-10-10
   status Active 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Set on a serene 8.5-/+ acre tract along Medlin Road in East Mountain, conveniently located between Gilmer and Longview, this well-maintained 1998-built double-wide mobile home offers spacious and comfortable country living. The home features a generous layout, including a huge living room perfect for entertaining or relaxing, and an oversized master bedroom with ample space for a sitting area or home office. Step outside and enjoy peaceful mornings or quiet evenings on either the front or side porch, surrounded by nature. A two-car carport provides covered parking, and a small barn adds extra storage or space for animals or hobbies. With plenty of open land and mature trees, this property combines privacy, functionality, and charm—ideal for those looking to enjoy rural life with convenience to town.

5. 2025-09-24
   status Pending 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Set on a serene 8.5-/+ acre tract along Medlin Road in East Mountain, conveniently located between Gilmer and Longview, this well-maintained 1998-built double-wide mobile home offers spacious and comfortable country living. The home features a generous layout, including a huge living room perfect for entertaining or relaxing, and an oversized master bedroom with ample space for a sitting area or home office. Step outside and enjoy peaceful mornings or quiet evenings on either the front or side porch, surrounded by nature. A two-car carport provides covered parking, and a small barn adds extra storage or space for animals or hobbies. With plenty of open land and mature trees, this property combines privacy, functionality, and charm—ideal for those looking to enjoy rural life with convenience to town.

6. 2025-08-20
   price $249,900 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Set on a serene 8.5-/+ acre tract along Medlin Road in East Mountain, conveniently located between Gilmer and Longview, this well-maintained 1998-built double-wide mobile home offers spacious and comfortable country living. The home features a generous layout, including a huge living room perfect for entertaining or relaxing, and an oversized master bedroom with ample space for a sitting area or home office. Step outside and enjoy peaceful mornings or quiet evenings on either the front or side porch, surrounded by nature. A two-car carport provides covered parking, and a small barn adds extra storage or space for animals or hobbies. With plenty of open land and mature trees, this property combines privacy, functionality, and charm—ideal for those looking to enjoy rural life with convenience to town.

7. 2025-07-21
   price $269,900 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Set on a serene 8.5-/+ acre tract along Medlin Road in East Mountain, conveniently located between Gilmer and Longview, this well-maintained 1998-built double-wide mobile home offers spacious and comfortable country living. The home features a generous layout, including a huge living room perfect for entertaining or relaxing, and an oversized master bedroom with ample space for a sitting area or home office. Step outside and enjoy peaceful mornings or quiet evenings on either the front or side porch, surrounded by nature. A two-car carport provides covered parking, and a small barn adds extra storage or space for animals or hobbies. With plenty of open land and mature trees, this property combines privacy, functionality, and charm—ideal for those looking to enjoy rural life with convenience to town.

8. 2025-07-08
   listed $279,900 Active 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Set on a serene 8.5-/+ acre tract along Medlin Road in East Mountain, conveniently located between Gilmer and Longview, this well-maintained 1998-built double-wide mobile home offers spacious and comfortable country living. The home features a generous layout, including a huge living room perfect for entertaining or relaxing, and an oversized master bedroom with ample space for a sitting area or home office. Step outside and enjoy peaceful mornings or quiet evenings on either the front or side porch, surrounded by nature. A two-car carport provides covered parking, and a small barn adds extra storage or space for animals or hobbies. With plenty of open land and mature trees, this property combines privacy, functionality, and charm—ideal for those looking to enjoy rural life with convenience to town.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$3,674
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,315
• − Management: −$1,315
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$11,929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,863
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — East Mountain

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #522
• US rank: #10263

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,511

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.93%
• Current HPI: 319.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — LAAR
• 2026-02-24 Listed $244,900 GTAR
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $244,900 LAAR
• 2025-10-10 Relisted — LAAR
• 2025-09-24 Pending — LAAR
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $249,900 LAAR
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $269,900 LAAR
• 2025-07-08 Listed $279,900 LAAR

Property tax history

-92.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $184 · -92.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.