12721 W Greenway Rd · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,344 sqft · Land public records · 248 Days on market

Built 2015 $28/sqft · 91% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is located in Rosewood Estates, a gated community! Home is only 10 years old and move-in-ready! Great for first-time homebuyers, families, or an investment opportunity! Call or text to set up a time to see this wonderful home in El Mirage! Things we love: Large bathtub in master bath, 3 bedrooms, all-electric kitchen appliances, shed in yard, hardwood floor in main area of the house, two large porches, covered carport.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Shed in yard
• Covered carport

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• LARGE BATHTUB IN MASTER BATH
• SHED IN YARD
• HARDWOOD FLOOR IN MAIN AREA
• TWO LARGE PORCHES
• COVERED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.6% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.21%
• DSCR: 4.70
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,821
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -81.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $63,698
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.43×
• Total profit: $135,168
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,166 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $1,262

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13029 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$1,860	$0.95	1d	1	0.39mi
13007 W Mandalay Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	2178	$2,095	$0.96	24d	1	0.42mi
12537 W Redfield Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	24d	1	0.42mi
12830 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	2179	$2,145	$0.98	1d	1	0.56mi
13217 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	1d	1	0.59mi
13186 W Gelding Cir Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1691	$1,899	$1.12	2d	1	0.67mi
12731 W Tasha Dr #1 Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	3010	$1,395	$0.46	18d	1	0.74mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	1795	$1,300	$0.72	3d	1	0.79mi
12204 W Ocotillo Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$1,949	$0.92	23d	1	0.79mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,145	$1.01	18d	1	0.83mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,145	$1.01	1d	1	0.83mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	24d	1	0.85mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	24d	1	0.86mi
14973 N 135th Dr Unit 1546409P Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1797	$3,122	$1.74	12d	1	0.92mi
13440 W Gelding Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2102	$2,235	$1.06	5d	1	0.92mi
13391 W Crocus Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.5	2102	$2,195	$1.04	5d	1	0.93mi
15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,869	$1.14	43d	1	0.95mi
12530 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1615	$2,075	$1.28	24d	1	0.97mi
12530 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1615	$1,830	$1.13	5d	1	0.97mi
13402 W Fargo Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1987	$2,595	$1.31	24d	1	0.98mi
13402 W Fargo Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1987	$4,000	$2.01	43d	1	0.98mi
15204 N El Frio Ct El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1978	$2,019	$1.02	2d	1	0.99mi
13034 W Ash St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2108	$2,281	$1.08	2d	1	1.03mi
13409 N 127th Dr El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1691	$2,249	$1.33	5d	1	1.04mi
14948 N 136th Ln Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	2120	$2,224	$1.05	44d	1	1.10mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	24d	1	1.10mi
12410 W Pershing St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.5	1776	$1,700	$0.96	5d	1	1.19mi
12541 W Myer Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.5	1794	$1,885	$1.05	5d	1	1.22mi
14815 N Tonya Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$2,040	$1.24	43d	1	1.22mi
13658 W Fargo Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,100	$1.09	5d	1	1.24mi
13709 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1883	$2,150	$1.14	43d	1	1.30mi
13709 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1883	$2,200	$1.17	5d	1	1.30mi
13005 N 129th Dr El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1785	$1,999	$1.12	1d	1	1.31mi
12901 N 127th Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,815	$1.12	5d	1	1.40mi
16198 N 137th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1883	$2,100	$1.12	5d	1	1.40mi
16206 N 137th Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1883	$2,045	$1.09	5d	1	1.41mi
13857 W Ironwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1627	$1,900	$1.17	24d	1	1.41mi
16112 N 138th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1883	$1,950	$1.04	18d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 248 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 247 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 246 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 245 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 243 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $65,000 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 230 DOM
14. 2025-11-29
    price $75,000 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is located in Rosewood Estates, a gated community! Home is only 10 years old and move-in-ready! Great for first-time homebuyers, families, or an investment opportunity! Call or text to set up a time to see this wonderful home in El Mirage! Things we love: Large bathtub in master bath, 3 bedrooms, all-electric kitchen appliances, shed in yard, hardwood floor in main area of the house, two large porches, covered carport.

15. 2025-10-13
    listed $95,000 Active 451-char remark

    Show marketing remark (451 chars)

    This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is located in Rosewood Estates, a gated community! Home is only 10 years old and move-in-ready! Great for first-time homebuyers, families, or an investment opportunity! Call or text to set up a time to see this wonderful home in El Mirage! Things we love: Large bathtub in master bath, 3 bedrooms, all-electric kitchen appliances, shed in yard, hardwood floor in main area of the house, two large porches, covered carport.

16. 2008-08-20
    historical
17. 2008-06-25
    listed $39,900
18. 2001-11-01
    historical
19. 2001-08-23
    historical
20. 2001-07-21
    listed $60,000
21. 2001-07-21
    listed $60,000
22. 1996-02-14
    soldstatus $1,815,000
23. 1993-10-15
    soldstatus $600,000
24. 1992-03-30
    soldstatus $1,097,250
25. 1992-01-02
    soldstatus $1,525,000
26. 1985-10-01
    soldstatus $300,000
27. 1985-10-01
    soldstatus $300,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,080
• − Management: −$2,080
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $15,003
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,601
• After-tax cash flow: $11,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-75.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $75,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-10-13 Listed $95,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2008-08-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-06-25 Listed $39,900 ARMLS
• 2001-11-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2001-08-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2001-07-21 Listed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2001-07-21 Listed $60,000 ARMLS
• 1996-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $1,815,000 Public Records
• 1993-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $600,000 Public Records
• 1992-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $1,097,250 Public Records
• 1992-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $1,525,000 Public Records
• 1985-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 1985-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $34,164 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.