1003 8th St · Shallowater, TX 79363

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,614 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1945 7,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Centrally located in Shallowater, this home offers a practical layout with modern updates throughout. Following a comprehensive refresh in 2021, the interior features a galley-style kitchen with updated cabinetry and countertops, durable wood-look vinyl flooring, and a bright and open living and dining area. Both bathrooms have been modernized with updated vanities and tile work. The property sits on a generous lot with a large, fenced backyard providing plenty of outdoor space and a detached workshop. While the home has been lived-in and enjoyed since its renovation, it provides a solid foundation for a buyer looking to add their own final touches in a quiet, established neighborhood. This home is a great entry point into the Shallowater ISD.

Key facts

• Galley-style kitchen
• Updated countertops
• Updated cabinetry

Tags

• GALLEY-STYLE KITCHEN
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• UPDATED COUNTERTOPS
• WOOD-LOOK VINYL FLOORING
• BRIGHT OPEN LIVING AREA
• MODERNIZED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#207 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Shallowater ISD (town): math 73% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #18 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.24%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $97,236
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $278,459
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79363

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,315/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $203	+0% $158	+5% $113	+10% $68
Rent	-10% $33	-5% $95	+0% $158	+5% $221	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $199	base $158	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1406 15th St Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,600	$1.03	15d	1	0.62mi
1408 15th St Unit B Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,600	$1.03	15d	1	0.63mi
1403 17th St Unit 1 Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,700	$1.10	15d	1	0.72mi
1405 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,525	$1.17	15d	1	0.73mi
1407 17th St Unit A Shallowater, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,500	$1.15	22d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $160,000 Pending 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,000 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-02-12
    listed $160,000 Active 753-char remark

    Show marketing remark (753 chars)

    Centrally located in Shallowater, this home offers a practical layout with modern updates throughout. Following a comprehensive refresh in 2021, the interior features a galley-style kitchen with updated cabinetry and countertops, durable wood-look vinyl flooring, and a bright and open living and dining area. Both bathrooms have been modernized with updated vanities and tile work. The property sits on a generous lot with a large, fenced backyard providing plenty of outdoor space and a detached workshop. While the home has been lived-in and enjoyed since its renovation, it provides a solid foundation for a buyer looking to add their own final touches in a quiet, established neighborhood. This home is a great entry point into the Shallowater ISD.

17. 2020-09-10
    soldstatus
18. 2020-09-09
    soldstatus 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Cute bungalow home with 1940's charm, New light and bright windows line the expanded living room. Kitchen renovations in progress, granite tops coming soon. Huge master bedroom with updated bath stall shower and tile flooring, 2 additional bedrooms and updated hall bath with tub shower. All hard surface flooring. Single car garage with new door and opener coming soon. Located in the heart of Shallowater. Completion in about 3 weeks

19. 2020-06-24
    listed $139,000 435-char remark

    Show marketing remark (435 chars)

    Cute bungalow home with 1940's charm, New light and bright windows line the expanded living room. Kitchen renovations in progress, granite tops coming soon. Huge master bedroom with updated bath stall shower and tile flooring, 2 additional bedrooms and updated hall bath with tub shower. All hard surface flooring. Single car garage with new door and opener coming soon. Located in the heart of Shallowater. Completion in about 3 weeks

20. 2014-11-17
    soldstatus
21. 2010-07-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,315 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$613/yr (+$51/mo · 26.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,315
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$167
• After-tax cash flow: $2,065/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shallowater ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839870
• Math proficiency: 73% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $57,288
• Composite: 59.69/100
• National rank: #903
• State rank: #18 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shallowater

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #207
• US rank: #5236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shallowater, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,831

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 20%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.76%
• Current HPI: 289.7445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $160,000 LARMLS
• 2020-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-09 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2020-06-24 Listed $139,000 LARMLS
• 2014-11-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,315 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.