Shipton Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

$307,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,877 sqft · SingleFamily · 408 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Shipton is a beautifully designed single-story home that combines thoughtful functionality with elegant simplicity. With 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 1,877-1,913 square feet of open-concept living space, this home offers the flexibility growing families need and the style today's homeowners love.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 407 days

🏗️ New construction. The $307,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $349,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $308k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1084 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 408 days — a 12% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $267,594 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 408 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.73%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,990
• List price: $307,990
• Delta: -12.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
280 Bright Alcove Ct	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,866 (-1%)	2mo	$311,990	$167	78
725 Grand Dale Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,106 (+12%)	0mo	$340,990	$162	72
237 Bright Alcove Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,975 (+5%)	0mo	$324,990	$165	68
466 Wonder Gardens Aly	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,875 (-0%)	0mo	$324,960	$173	66
201 Bright Alcove Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,002 (+7%)	0mo	$319,990	$160	65
656 Lakepointe Blvd	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,935 (+3%)	1mo	$343,990	$178	65
444 Silent Pond Park	0.37mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,699 (-10%)	1mo	$278,990	$164	59
754 Hart Leaf Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,631 (-13%)	1mo	$341,990	$210	57
468 Tender Smt	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,649 (-12%)	0mo	$276,990	$168	54
295 Bright Alcove Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,608 (-14%)	2mo	$309,990	$193	52
327 Brookview Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,731 (-8%)	3mo	$295,700	$171	50
1195 Little Hills Way	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,131 (+14%)	3mo	$344,990	$162	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-76,080
• Equity at exit: $52,185

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-91,075
• Equity at exit: $30,261

Cash invested: $97,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 192 active · 77 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.5 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $318,995 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 135 d
• This list price: 35% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 1084
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,676 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,250/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,062

Max offer price $305,898

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-63	-5% $-184	+0% $-305	+5% $-426	+10% $-547
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-410	+0% $-305	+5% $-199	+10% $-93
Rate	-1.0pp $-128	-0.5pp $-216	base $-305	+0.5pp $-395	+1.0pp $-488

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,498
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	184d	1	0.17mi
759 Gentle Bird Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2400	$2,500	$1.04	115d	1	0.37mi
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,275	$2.25	0d	62	0.39mi
241 Bright Alcove Ct Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$2,500	$1.17	10d	1	0.41mi
257 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,500	$1.16	134d	1	0.46mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,322	$2.03	0d	13	0.47mi
208 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,500	$1.15	37d	1	0.54mi
208 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,350	$1.08	5d	1	0.54mi
344 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2353	$2,600	$1.10	134d	1	0.56mi
402 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2114	$2,195	$1.04	73d	1	0.57mi
209 Little Bridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,200	$1.15	10d	1	0.61mi
368 Lake Bluff Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2300	$2,700	$1.17	84d	1	0.62mi
621 Cherish Day Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,045	$1.45	104d	1	0.66mi
610 Overlook Pt Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,000	$1.22	10d	1	0.67mi
670 Parkside Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1981	$2,300	$1.16	2d	1	0.70mi
248 Braves Way Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1748	$2,400	$1.37	10d	1	0.73mi
179 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,495	$1.38	110d	1	0.73mi
1060 Happy Holly Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1353	$1,997	$1.48	78d	1	0.75mi
1060 Happy Holly Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$1,997	$1.39	71d	1	0.75mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	134d	1	0.75mi
469 Waters Ridge Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2096	$3,200	$1.53	0d	1	0.80mi
756 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1592	$2,100	$1.32	10d	1	0.82mi
117 Community Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.5	2356	$2,600	$1.10	165d	1	0.84mi
566 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2447	$2,850	$1.16	0d	1	0.85mi
566 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2447	$2,850	$1.16	3d	1	0.85mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	184d	1	0.87mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	165d	1	0.88mi
772 Soar Sky Way Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1861	$2,350	$1.26	25d	1	0.88mi
275 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1831	$1,889	$1.03	49d	1	0.88mi
239 Tallgrass Dr Lavon, TX	5.0	3.0	2394	$3,500	$1.46	184d	1	0.89mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	184d	1	0.89mi
609 Nature Stroll Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,995	$1.30	65d	1	0.92mi
383 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,500	$1.01	184d	1	0.94mi
600 Blooming Glade Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	134d	1	0.95mi
361 Silver Springs Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2466	$2,295	$0.93	184d	1	0.95mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	50d	1	0.95mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	29d	1	0.95mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	73d	1	0.95mi
856 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,000	$1.20	10d	1	0.96mi
649 Lightheart Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	38d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $307,990 Active 408 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $307,990 Active 407 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $307,990 Active 406 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $307,990 Active 405 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $307,990 Active 404 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $307,990 Active 402 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $307,990 Active 401 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $307,990 Active 400 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $307,990 Active 399 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $307,990 Active 398 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $307,990 Active 397 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $307,990 Active 396 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $307,990 Active 395 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $307,990 Active 394 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $307,990 Active 393 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $307,990 Active 392 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $307,990 Active 391 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $307,990 Active 390 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $307,990 Active 389 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $307,990 Active 388 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $307,990 Active 387 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $307,990 Active 386 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $307,990 Active 385 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $307,990 Active 384 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $307,990 Active 383 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $307,990 Active 382 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $307,990 Active 381 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $307,990 Active 380 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $307,990 Active 379 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $307,990 Active 378 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $307,990 Active 377 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $307,990 Active 376 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $307,990 Active 375 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $307,990 Active 374 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $307,990 Active 373 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $307,990 Active 372 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $307,990 Active 371 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $307,990 Active 370 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $307,990 Active 369 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $307,990 Active 368 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $307,990 Active 367 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $307,990 Active 366 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $307,990 Active 365 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $307,990 Active 364 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $307,990 Active 363 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $307,990 Active 362 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $307,990 Active 361 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $307,990 Active 360 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $307,990 Active 359 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $307,990 Active 358 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,250
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,569
• − Management: −$2,569
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$9,813
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,355
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,301/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,385–$28,155 screening

The Shipton Plan in Lavon, TX is a well-maintained single-story home with good curb appeal and interior condition, ready for minor cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures the HVAC system is functioning properly and energy-efficient, attracting renters. ↑
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and increase the property's value. ↑
• Resale Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Roof inspection — Ensures the roof is in good condition and provides peace of mind for potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $306,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $306,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $306,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-26 Listed $305,990 Zillow