302 19th St SW · Rochester, MN 55902

$259,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1962 0.29 ac lot Est $318k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rambler in a convenient Rochester location with easy access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. The main level offers three bedrooms, hardwood floors throughout, and a bright layout with multiple areas for seating and dining plus beautiful front windows that bring in great natural light. The lower level adds excellent flexibility with a bedroom, a den/flex space, living space, and a kitchenette—creating strong potential for a separate living area. With rear parking in addition to the garage and driveway, this property also offers duplex-style potential for the next owner as well.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1962

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 car); Asphalt driveway
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One level (with lower level/basement); Main-level entry with lower-level finished space
• Construction: Block construction; Foundation area listed; Finished basement
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.287 acres; Lot dimensions about 107 x 118 x 107 x 118

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Wall oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Kitchen window
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary on main floor; additional bedrooms on main and lower levels)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bathroom; Three-quarter bathroom in basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement; Divided bedroom floor plan; Main floor primary bedroom; Natural woodwork; Kitchen window; Water softener (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Washer/Dryer hookup; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.5% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayo Senior High (math 42% / reading 65%, grade C-, #104 of 471 statewide, top 22%, 1,862 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 31% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $228,714 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.48%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,500
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2018 Edgewood Ct SW	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,858 (+2%)	6mo	$325,000	$175	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-39,711
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-40,398
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55902

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,287 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,952/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,174

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1508 2nd Ave SW Rochester, MN	2.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	43d	1	0.52mi
1441 Salem Rd SW Rochester, MN	3.0	2.0	1842	$2,900	$1.57	43d	1	1.31mi
814 7th Ave SW Unit back Rochester, MN	3.0	1.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	43d	1	1.44mi
801 6th Ave SW Rochester, MN	3.0	2.5	2160	$2,500	$1.16	21d	1	1.46mi
705 1st Ave SW Rochester, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	1135	$3,148	$2.77	13d	91	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-10
   listed $259,900 Active
4. 2026-04-08
   historical $259,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,952 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,952 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$2,952
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,196
• − Management: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$3,316
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$796
• After-tax cash flow: $1,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 26,464
• Household income: $120,611
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 728.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 11% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.29%
• Current HPI: 252.3502
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Listed $259,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $259,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,952 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.