409 Chestnut St · Tarkio, MO 64491

$15,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 786 sqft · Other public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1920 6,011 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor special in Tarkio, MO property is a blank canvas ready for your vision. Perfect for the first-time flipper or a buy-and-hold investor looking for an affordable entry point in a tight-knit community. Bring your contractor and your creativity — the upside is yours. Priced for a quick sale, so don't wait. All information including square footage, lot size, and room count is deemed reliable but not guaranteed — buyer to verify all details and perform their own due diligence prior to submitting an offer.

Key facts

• 6,011 sq ft lot
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed by Realty of America; Directions: From downtown Tarkio, head on Main St to Chestnut St; turn onto Chestnut St to 409 — property will be on your left/right.
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Water: Rural/other; Sewer: Unknown
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Agent-reported above-grade living area: 786; Bungalow style
• Construction: Composition roof; Other construction materials; Estimated age: 101 years or more
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 6,011 square feet

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating specified; No cooling specified; Other heating/cooling features noted
• Interior features: Bungalow floor plan; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($816 rent vs $15k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#234 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkio R-I (rural): math 35% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #250 of 535 in MO (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $61 of equity ($104 loan paydown + $-43 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Atchison County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $15,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 49.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 154.96%
• DSCR: 7.89
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.07×
• Total profit: $33,914
• Equity at exit: $4,141

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.05×
• Total profit: $75,800
• Equity at exit: $4,810

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64491

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $816 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $208/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $129

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $551	-5% $547	+0% $542	+5% $538	+10% $534
Rent	-10% $478	-5% $510	+0% $542	+5% $575	+10% $607
Rate	-1.0pp $550	-0.5pp $546	base $542	+0.5pp $538	+1.0pp $535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $15,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $15,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $15,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 513-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   listed $15,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $208 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $208 · $17/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$208
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$783
• − Management: −$783
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $6,665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,600
• After-tax cash flow: $4,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkio R-I
• NCES district ID: 2929940
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,665
• Composite: 38.26/100
• National rank: #8557
• State rank: #250 of 535 in MO

Livability — Tarkio

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #11461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tarkio, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,642

Population outlook (Atchison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,684 people
• By 2030: 4,353 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 3,768 · -19.6%
• By 2050: 3,299 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 2,495 · -46.7%
• By 2100: 1,835 · -60.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atchison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.8) · D 19.5% · R 79.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.4pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -59.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.8 2020: R+58.1 2016: R+55.8 2012: R+42.3 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.29%
• Current HPI: 162.0795
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $15,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $208 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.