11758 W Kesler St · West Odessa, TX 79764

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2008 0.42 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedrooms/2 bathrooms, open concept, fireplace and sequestered master bedroom. Built in 2008, this home is situated on a spacious . 42 acre lot! No HOA. Home has it's own well and septic. Also features a separate shop, a carport, gated property and a shop in the back. Elected as real property, this home offers great flexibility for financing. Schedule your showing with your favorite Realtor today!

Key facts

• Separate shop
• Open concept
• Carport

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• FIREPLACE
• SEQUESTERED MASTER BEDROOM
• SPACIOUS LOT
• SEPARATE SHOP
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $391 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,026 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.05%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-5,177
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $27,195
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79764

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $581/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,387

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $495	-5% $443	+0% $391	+5% $338	+10% $286
Rent	-10% $242	-5% $316	+0% $391	+5% $465	+10% $539
Rate	-1.0pp $484	-0.5pp $438	base $391	+0.5pp $343	+1.0pp $294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-30
   days on market $185,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-04-13
   status Active 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   Charming 3 bedrooms/2 bathrooms, open concept, fireplace and sequestered master bedroom. Built in 2008, this home is situated on a spacious . 42 acre lot! No HOA. Home has it's own well and septic. Also features a separate shop, a carport, gated property and a shop in the back. Elected as real property, this home offers great flexibility for financing. Schedule your showing with your favorite Realtor today!

3. 2026-04-13
   price $185,000 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   Charming 3 bedrooms/2 bathrooms, open concept, fireplace and sequestered master bedroom. Built in 2008, this home is situated on a spacious . 42 acre lot! No HOA. Home has it's own well and septic. Also features a separate shop, a carport, gated property and a shop in the back. Elected as real property, this home offers great flexibility for financing. Schedule your showing with your favorite Realtor today!

4. 2026-03-28
   historical 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   Charming 3 bedrooms/2 bathrooms, open concept, fireplace and sequestered master bedroom. Built in 2008, this home is situated on a spacious . 42 acre lot! No HOA. Home has it's own well and septic. Also features a separate shop, a carport, gated property and a shop in the back. Elected as real property, this home offers great flexibility for financing. Schedule your showing with your favorite Realtor today!

5. 2026-03-28
   listed $200,000 Active 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   Charming 3 bedrooms/2 bathrooms, open concept, fireplace and sequestered master bedroom. Built in 2008, this home is situated on a spacious . 42 acre lot! No HOA. Home has it's own well and septic. Also features a separate shop, a carport, gated property and a shop in the back. Elected as real property, this home offers great flexibility for financing. Schedule your showing with your favorite Realtor today!

6. 2013-04-16
   soldstatus
7. 2008-07-08
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $581 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,805/yr (+$234/mo · 483.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$581
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,806
• − Management: −$1,806
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,715
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$412
• After-tax cash flow: $4,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Odessa

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1026
• US rank: #18223

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Odessa, TX
• City population: 61,683
• Population (ZIP): 26,805

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 37% Two or more races 17% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 45% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.67%
• Current HPI: 238.7065
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $185,000 ODMLS
• 2026-03-28 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $200,000 ODMLS
• 2013-04-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $581 · +34.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.