3111 Hickory Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33543

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 185 Days on market

Built 1988 4,488 sqft lot Est $149k · 11% over $217/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FRONT GLASSED IN FLORIDA ROOM: and side screen porch with laundry/storage at one end and work shop at the other end. Neat, clean and being sold mostly furnished. 2 bedroom, 2 bath, front kitchen with breakfast bar, separate dining area with built in china buffet and separate office/craft room. Beautiful master bedroom and bath separated by French doors, with large walk in closet and walk in shower. French doors leading out to the lovely front glassed in Florida room. New HVAC 2022. Two-car side by side carport and additional parking pad leaves plenty of room for guests to stop by. Gated community close to home store, shopping, eateries, nail salon and gym. Easy commute to Tampa and not far from Wiregrass Town Center and Sam's. NO lot rent here and the low monthly fee covers grass cutting, water, sewer, trash collection, the use of 2 pools, 2 clubhouses and so much more. No age restriction in this community and larger pets ok with some breed restrictions. Neat and tidy community.

Key facts

• Updated showers
• Laminate flooring
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED SHOWERS
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR TRIM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre; Lot size approx. 0.1 acre; Clubhouse and community pool available
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Association: RealManage; Monthly association fee $217; Association amenities: gated community, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, spa/hot tub; Association fees cover: pool, private road, recreational facilities, sewer, trash; Association approval required; On-site property manager; Pets allowed (max 25 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property; One level; Faces east; In county, paved lot
• Construction: Metal frame with vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closet(s); Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 638 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.30%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3145 Hickory Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+4%)	1mo	$155,000	$135	90
34135 Brown Byu	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (-2%)	10mo	$160,000	$148	76
3141 Great Oak St	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,226 (+11%)	1mo	$125,000	$102	75
3010 Whispering Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (0%)	15mo	$172,000	$156	72
3045 Shady Creek Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,214 (+10%)	6mo	$130,000	$107	70
34121 Tree Lake Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	988 (-10%)	9mo	$118,000	$119	67
34313 Countryside Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-6%)	16mo	$139,900	$135	62
3041 Short Leaf St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,170 (+6%)	11mo	$157,500	$135	59
34645 Lily Ln	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-4%)	10mo	$127,500	$121	52
34701 Morning Glory Gln	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-4%)	16mo	$165,000	$156	44
34616 Morning Glory Gln	0.68mi	2/2.0	960 (-13%)	8mo	$53,000	$55	40
3741 New River Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+13%)	13mo	$260,000	$208	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-11,998
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,933
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33543

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $772/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$217
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,538

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3030 Beaver Creek Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	15d	1	0.28mi
2516 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	24d	1	0.70mi
2415 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,300	$1.68	5d	1	0.73mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	17d	1	0.74mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,849	$1.35	12d	1	0.74mi
2407 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,849	$1.35	24d	1	0.74mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	24d	1	0.79mi
2358 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	3d	1	0.79mi
2308 Alee Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,825	$1.33	17d	1	0.80mi
2264 Paravane Way Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,000	$1.46	24d	1	0.87mi
34142 Polacca Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,100	$1.53	24d	1	0.88mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	24d	1	0.93mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,999	$1.46	22d	1	0.93mi
2191 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$1,900	$1.38	11d	1	0.93mi
2187 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1373	$1,945	$1.42	15d	1	0.94mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	1.03mi
2085 Hallier Cv Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.5	1373	$2,200	$1.60	5d	1	1.04mi
36232 Lanier Oaks Pt , FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,700	$1.28	24d	1	1.27mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,284	$1.82	12d	71	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $217 · $2,604/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolgymsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $165,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 167 DOM
14. 2025-12-15
    listed $165,000 Active
15. 2022-12-29
    soldstatus $139,000
16. 2022-12-08
    soldstatus $139,000 Closed 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    FRONT GLASSED IN FLORIDA ROOM: and side screen porch with laundry/storage at one end and work shop at the other end. Neat, clean and being sold mostly furnished. 2 bedroom, 2 bath, front kitchen with breakfast bar, separate dining area with built in china buffet and separate office/craft room. Beautiful master bedroom and bath separated by French doors, with large walk in closet and walk in shower. French doors leading out to the lovely front glassed in Florida room. New HVAC 2022. Two-car side by side carport and additional parking pad leaves plenty of room for guests to stop by. Gated community close to home store, shopping, eateries, nail salon and gym. Easy commute to Tampa and not far from Wiregrass Town Center and Sam's. NO lot rent here and the low monthly fee covers grass cutting, water, sewer, trash collection, the use of 2 pools, 2 clubhouses and so much more. No age restriction in this community and larger pets ok with some breed restrictions. Neat and tidy community.

17. 2022-11-17
    status Pending 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    FRONT GLASSED IN FLORIDA ROOM: and side screen porch with laundry/storage at one end and work shop at the other end. Neat, clean and being sold mostly furnished. 2 bedroom, 2 bath, front kitchen with breakfast bar, separate dining area with built in china buffet and separate office/craft room. Beautiful master bedroom and bath separated by French doors, with large walk in closet and walk in shower. French doors leading out to the lovely front glassed in Florida room. New HVAC 2022. Two-car side by side carport and additional parking pad leaves plenty of room for guests to stop by. Gated community close to home store, shopping, eateries, nail salon and gym. Easy commute to Tampa and not far from Wiregrass Town Center and Sam's. NO lot rent here and the low monthly fee covers grass cutting, water, sewer, trash collection, the use of 2 pools, 2 clubhouses and so much more. No age restriction in this community and larger pets ok with some breed restrictions. Neat and tidy community.

18. 2022-11-14
    listed $139,900 Active 995-char remark

    Show marketing remark (995 chars)

    FRONT GLASSED IN FLORIDA ROOM: and side screen porch with laundry/storage at one end and work shop at the other end. Neat, clean and being sold mostly furnished. 2 bedroom, 2 bath, front kitchen with breakfast bar, separate dining area with built in china buffet and separate office/craft room. Beautiful master bedroom and bath separated by French doors, with large walk in closet and walk in shower. French doors leading out to the lovely front glassed in Florida room. New HVAC 2022. Two-car side by side carport and additional parking pad leaves plenty of room for guests to stop by. Gated community close to home store, shopping, eateries, nail salon and gym. Easy commute to Tampa and not far from Wiregrass Town Center and Sam's. NO lot rent here and the low monthly fee covers grass cutting, water, sewer, trash collection, the use of 2 pools, 2 clubhouses and so much more. No age restriction in this community and larger pets ok with some breed restrictions. Neat and tidy community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $772 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$598/yr (+$50/mo · 77.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$772
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − HOA: −$2,604
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$322
• After-tax cash flow: $3,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wesley Chapel, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 40,648
• Household income: $107,349
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.13%
• Current HPI: 263.2513
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.37%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+17.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-08 Sold (MLS) $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-14 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $772 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.