1038 Church Ave · Johnstown, PA 15901

$12,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · — sqft · Other · 38 Days on market

Built 1910 ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Buy fix or Hold or sit a mobile manufacturer home here city water/sewer for connections. Address 1038 Church Ave Johnstown PA 15901. Call 272-253-3586

Key facts

• Built 1910
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($859 rent vs $12k).
• Recommended offer: $12k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 65.8% vs local median 15.0% in Johnstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#363 in PA, #3,168 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greater Johnstown SD (urban): math 9% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #509 of 539 in PA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $83 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $360 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($12k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $11,640 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 65.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 212.69%
• DSCR: 10.46
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.71×
• Total profit: $35,998
• Equity at exit: $1,789

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.88×
• Total profit: $80,240
• Equity at exit: $1,038

Cash invested: $3,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15901

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $859 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$63
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$15 /mo · $180/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $105

Max offer price $12,000

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,000
• Closing costs: $360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
520 Woodvale Ave Unit 522 Johnstown, PA	2.0	1.0	—	$700	—	43d	1	0.68mi
350 Market St Unit 102 Johnstown, PA	2.0	1.0	—	$820	—	43d	1	0.80mi
412 Oak St Unit 1 Johnstown, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$900	$0.82	43d	1	0.98mi
541 Ash St Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	—	$925	—	43d	1	1.15mi
114 Clarion St Unit 1 Johnstown, PA	2.0	1.0	—	$1,100	—	43d	1	1.24mi
114 Clarion St Unit 2 Johnstown, PA	3.0	2.0	—	$950	—	43d	1	1.24mi
906 Lemon St Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1128	$750	$0.66	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $12,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $12,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $12,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $12,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $12,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $12,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $12,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $12,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $12,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $12,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $12,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $12,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $12,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $12,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $12,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $12,000 Active 128-char remark
17. 2026-03-07
    listed $15,000 Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (151 chars)

    Buy fix or Hold or sit a mobile manufacturer home here city water/sewer for connections. Address 1038 Church Ave Johnstown PA 15901. Call 272-253-3586

18. 2004-06-06
    soldstatus $13,500
19. 1979-08-01
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$672
• − Property taxes: −$180
• − Insurance: −$60
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$824
• − Management: −$824
• − Depreciation: −$349
• Taxable income: $7,396
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,775
• After-tax cash flow: $5,371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greater Johnstown SD
• NCES district ID: 4210950
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,890
• Composite: 13.25/100
• National rank: #9550
• State rank: #509 of 539 in PA

Livability — Johnstown

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #3168

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnstown, PA
• City population: 30,791
• Population (ZIP): 3,466

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.41%
• Current HPI: 92.1212
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $12,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $12,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-03-07 Listed $15,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2004-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records
• 1979-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,108 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.