5306 Rexford Way · Larkfield-Wikiup, CA 95043

$259,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Manufactured · 42 Days on market

Built 1985 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully refreshed 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in an all-age park in Northwest Santa Rosa. Updated prior to the current owner's purchase in 2024, this home offers a newer roof, dual-pane windows, stylish kitchen with updated cabinets and appliances, newer flooring, newer furnace & water heater, and modern lighting. The covered front deck creates a welcoming outdoor space to relax and unwind. Centrally located near everyday conveniences, this move-in ready home combines comfort, style, and convenience.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Updated cabinets
• Newer flooring

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• UPDATED CABINETS
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• NEWER FLOORING
• NEWER FURNACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,019
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Covered parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide
• Construction: Sunwood make; Manufactured by Skyline Homes; Wood skirting
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Located in Redwood Village (manufactured home park)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s); Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted living room ceiling; Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.1% in Larkfield-Wikiup — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,230 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.36%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5306 Rexford Way	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,150 (0%)	1mo	$255,000	$222	99
5306 Rexford Way #56	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,150 (0%)	19mo	$228,000	$198	83
5318 Huckleberry Way	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (-4%)	8mo	$135,000	$123	77
5300 Rexford #5300	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+8%)	6mo	$145,000	$116	75
5308 Rexford Way	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+8%)	12mo	$187,000	$150	70
5241 Whispering Crk	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,224 (+6%)	2mo	$191,000	$156	58
5215 Gayle Dr	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	9mo	$175,000	$156	56
50 Plymouth Way	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	11mo	$156,000	$139	53
612 Colonial Park Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	10mo	$165,000	$138	51
541 Colonial Park Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+0%)	18mo	$115,000	$100	50
216 Colonial Park Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,060 (-8%)	12mo	$150,000	$142	42
634 Colonial Park Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-13%)	7mo	$118,000	$118	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $44,186
• Equity at exit: $116,458

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $139,245
• Equity at exit: $179,475

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95043

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,523 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $382	-5% $293	+0% $203	+5% $114	+10% $24
Rent	-10% $4	-5% $104	+0% $203	+5% $303	+10% $403
Rate	-1.0pp $334	-0.5pp $269	base $203	+0.5pp $136	+1.0pp $68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
193 Airport Blvd E Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	967	$2,760	$2.85	13d	1	0.19mi
5256 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 31 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,200	$2.32	14d	1	0.25mi
5252 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 20 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	14d	1	0.26mi
5223 Old Redwood Hwy Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$3,200	$3.50	13d	1	0.38mi
5209 Old Redwood Hwy Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	1014	$2,450	$2.42	22d	1	0.42mi
211 Shiloh Rd Windsor, CA	2.0	1.0	814	$3,095	$3.80	14d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-26
   historical Contingent (Show)
3. 2026-04-09
   listed $259,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,422
• − Management: −$2,422
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$1,791
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$430
• After-tax cash flow: $2,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home has been updated with a newer roof, dual-pane windows, and modern appliances, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and protects the siding
• Both Replace the front door — Improves security and enhances curb appeal
• Both Install new outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and protects the siding ↑
• Both Replace the front door — Improves security and enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Install new outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Larkfield-Wikiup

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Larkfield-Wikiup, CA
• City population: 45,570
• Population (ZIP): 673

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Serbian 5% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — BAREIS
• 2026-04-26 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $259,000 BAREIS