7602 Avenue J · Houston, TX 77012

$285,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,824 sqft · Townhouse · 164 Days on market

Built 2025 2,500 sqft lot $156/sqft · at area comps Est $285k · at est. ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-In Ready GEM with Exceptional Features, including a BALCONY and a 2-CAR GARAGE---This 2025 New-Construction Townhome in the popular, rapidly growing Magnolia Park neighborhood was designed and built with attention to detail. The LOWEST-PRICED new build in the area. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and best of all, no history of flooding or power outages making this a RARE find at this price point. A true steal! Enjoy the convenience of living just minutes from Downtown Houston, with easy access to major highways and nearby attractions and with a short walk to public transportation. Nearby attractions include; stadiums, Texas Medical Center, Houston Zoo, universities, Hobby Airport, The Galleria, and more. Don't miss out on this incredible value--schedule your showing today before it's gone!

Key facts

• Balcony
• New construction
• Nearby attractions

Tags

• BALCONY
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• NO HISTORY OF FLOODING
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS
• NEARBY ATTRACTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-179 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,710 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,000
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7606 Avenue J	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,824 (0%)	1mo	$285,000	$156	99
7047 Avenue E	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,668 (-9%)	2mo	$250,000	$150	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-46,435
• Equity at exit: $54,288

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-45,096
• Equity at exit: $45,384

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77012

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,493

Max offer price $259,162

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7334 Texas St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,200	$1.23	43d	1	0.61mi
2203 Pearl St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,570	$1.21	14d	1	1.15mi
6403 Avenue C Unit 1019625P Houston, TX	2.0–8.0	1.0–4.0	1232	$3,466	$2.81	2d	2	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 164 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,000 Active 154 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $285,000 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $285,000 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-04-08
    price $285,000 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Move-In Ready GEM with Exceptional Features, including a BALCONY and a 2-CAR GARAGE---This 2025 New-Construction Townhome in the popular, rapidly growing Magnolia Park neighborhood was designed and built with attention to detail. The LOWEST-PRICED new build in the area. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and best of all, no history of flooding or power outages making this a RARE find at this price point. A true steal! Enjoy the convenience of living just minutes from Downtown Houston, with easy access to major highways and nearby attractions and with a short walk to public transportation. Nearby attractions include; stadiums, Texas Medical Center, Houston Zoo, universities, Hobby Airport, The Galleria, and more. Don't miss out on this incredible value--schedule your showing today before it's gone!

13. 2026-03-30
    price $299,900 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Move-In Ready GEM with Exceptional Features, including a BALCONY and a 2-CAR GARAGE---This 2025 New-Construction Townhome in the popular, rapidly growing Magnolia Park neighborhood was designed and built with attention to detail. The LOWEST-PRICED new build in the area. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and best of all, no history of flooding or power outages making this a RARE find at this price point. A true steal! Enjoy the convenience of living just minutes from Downtown Houston, with easy access to major highways and nearby attractions and with a short walk to public transportation. Nearby attractions include; stadiums, Texas Medical Center, Houston Zoo, universities, Hobby Airport, The Galleria, and more. Don't miss out on this incredible value--schedule your showing today before it's gone!

14. 2026-02-14
    price $312,000 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Move-In Ready GEM with Exceptional Features, including a BALCONY and a 2-CAR GARAGE---This 2025 New-Construction Townhome in the popular, rapidly growing Magnolia Park neighborhood was designed and built with attention to detail. The LOWEST-PRICED new build in the area. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and best of all, no history of flooding or power outages making this a RARE find at this price point. A true steal! Enjoy the convenience of living just minutes from Downtown Houston, with easy access to major highways and nearby attractions and with a short walk to public transportation. Nearby attractions include; stadiums, Texas Medical Center, Houston Zoo, universities, Hobby Airport, The Galleria, and more. Don't miss out on this incredible value--schedule your showing today before it's gone!

15. 2026-02-06
    price $314,000 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Move-In Ready GEM with Exceptional Features, including a BALCONY and a 2-CAR GARAGE---This 2025 New-Construction Townhome in the popular, rapidly growing Magnolia Park neighborhood was designed and built with attention to detail. The LOWEST-PRICED new build in the area. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and best of all, no history of flooding or power outages making this a RARE find at this price point. A true steal! Enjoy the convenience of living just minutes from Downtown Houston, with easy access to major highways and nearby attractions and with a short walk to public transportation. Nearby attractions include; stadiums, Texas Medical Center, Houston Zoo, universities, Hobby Airport, The Galleria, and more. Don't miss out on this incredible value--schedule your showing today before it's gone!

16. 2026-02-03
    price $324,700 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Move-In Ready GEM with Exceptional Features, including a BALCONY and a 2-CAR GARAGE---This 2025 New-Construction Townhome in the popular, rapidly growing Magnolia Park neighborhood was designed and built with attention to detail. The LOWEST-PRICED new build in the area. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and best of all, no history of flooding or power outages making this a RARE find at this price point. A true steal! Enjoy the convenience of living just minutes from Downtown Houston, with easy access to major highways and nearby attractions and with a short walk to public transportation. Nearby attractions include; stadiums, Texas Medical Center, Houston Zoo, universities, Hobby Airport, The Galleria, and more. Don't miss out on this incredible value--schedule your showing today before it's gone!

17. 2026-01-05
    listed $334,900 Active 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Move-In Ready GEM with Exceptional Features, including a BALCONY and a 2-CAR GARAGE---This 2025 New-Construction Townhome in the popular, rapidly growing Magnolia Park neighborhood was designed and built with attention to detail. The LOWEST-PRICED new build in the area. With 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and best of all, no history of flooding or power outages making this a RARE find at this price point. A true steal! Enjoy the convenience of living just minutes from Downtown Houston, with easy access to major highways and nearby attractions and with a short walk to public transportation. Nearby attractions include; stadiums, Texas Medical Center, Houston Zoo, universities, Hobby Airport, The Galleria, and more. Don't miss out on this incredible value--schedule your showing today before it's gone!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,176
• − Management: −$2,176
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$7,103
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,705
• After-tax cash flow: $-438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 16,780

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 92% Two or more races 35% Black 5% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.08%
• Current HPI: 274.5729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $312,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $314,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $324,700 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $334,900 HARMLS