516 Hill Cir · Centerton, AR 72719

$230,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,015 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1994 8,276 sqft lot Est $218k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Available for showings February 15th - 9:00-12:00 only. This charming, well-maintained home sits on a quiet cul-de-sac with a spacious backyard surrounded by mature trees that offer both shade and privacy. Inside, you'll find large windows that flood the space with natural light, complementing the open floor plan. The 1-car garage is equipped with plenty of built-ins, providing ample storage. Located just minutes from parks, trails, and restaurants, this home is perfect for investors or first-time buyers looking for a move-in ready option. With a newer HVAC, it's a solid choice for anyone seeking both comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Open concept
• Central location

Tags

• CENTRAL LOCATION
• CUL-DE-SAC
• LARGE WINDOWS
• OPEN CONCEPT
• LARGE BACKYARD
• NEW WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee assessed monthly; Community features: park, shopping, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Driveway; Aggregate surface; 1 covered space
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Phone available; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Single-story; 25+ years old
• Construction: Brick and Masonite exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Partial privacy wood fencing; Located on a cul-de-sac; City lot, level; Near park; Shared paved road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Plumbed for ice maker; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Laminate; Simulated wood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic; Ceiling fan(s); Storage; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.9% in Centerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#11 in AR, #3,194 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Bentonville School District (urban): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #3 of 238 in AR (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 465 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,282 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,225
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
516 Hill Cir	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+2%)	15mo	$209,950	$202	81
129 Southland St	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,062 (+5%)	2mo	$239,900	$226	77
228 N C St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,014 (-0%)	5mo	$199,900	$197	75
303 Southland St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	923 (-9%)	6mo	$207,750	$225	69
516 Gene Cir	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	923 (-9%)	9mo	$200,000	$217	64
116 Southland St	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,046 (+3%)	22mo	$230,000	$220	63
371 Southland	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	910 (-10%)	15mo	$196,000	$215	61
200 Sun Meadow Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+10%)	6mo	$243,000	$218	56
394 W 1st St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,072 (+6%)	8mo	$220,000	$205	55
211 Sun Meadow Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,116 (+10%)	6mo	$225,000	$202	54
202 Township Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,162 (+14%)	17mo	$235,000	$202	46
312 N B St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,149 (+13%)	20mo	$245,000	$213	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.87% appreciation · 0.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-30,066
• Equity at exit: $56,957

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-34,269
• Equity at exit: $61,043

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72719

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,623 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,695/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,827

Max offer price $201,517

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-31	-5% $-96	+0% $-161	+5% $-226	+10% $-291
Rent	-10% $-289	-5% $-225	+0% $-161	+5% $-97	+10% $-33
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-103	base $-161	+0.5pp $-221	+1.0pp $-281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
182 E 2nd St Centerton, AR	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,650	$1.12	15d	1	0.62mi
1002 Applewood Cir Centerton, AR	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,750	$1.20	25d	1	0.73mi
501 E Centerton Blvd Centerton, AR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$1,292	$1.55	15d	25	0.75mi
616 Sadie Ln Centerton, AR	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	25d	1	0.76mi
440 N Brookfield Dr Centerton, AR	3.0	2.0	1279	$1,495	$1.17	22d	1	0.79mi
440 Spicewood Trl Centerton, AR	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,575	$1.11	25d	1	0.82mi
1389 W Centerton Blvd Centerton, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	980	$1,500	$1.53	15d	16	0.86mi
650 Appleridge Dr Centerton, AR	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,300	$1.12	25d	1	0.87mi
662 Appleridge Dr Centerton, AR	2.0	2.0	1182	$1,300	$1.10	25d	1	0.89mi
720 Appleridge Dr Centerton, AR	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	15d	1	0.97mi
221 Williams Ct Bentonville, AR	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,725	$1.22	25d	1	1.01mi
251 Graystone Cir Centerton, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,225	$0.94	25d	1	1.04mi
249 Graystone Cir Unit 251 Centerton, AR	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,225	$1.09	25d	1	1.04mi
231 Graystone Cir Centerton, AR	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,225	$1.09	22d	1	1.04mi
813 Valley Oaks Ln Centerton, AR	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,595	$1.10	25d	1	1.05mi
6604 SW Dignity Ave Bentonville, AR	3.0	3.0	1430	$1,550	$1.08	15d	1	1.07mi
811 Meadowlands Dr Centerton, AR	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,225	$0.83	25d	1	1.08mi
901 Valley Oaks Ln Centerton, AR	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,595	$1.10	25d	1	1.09mi
820 Boardwalk Ave Bentonville, AR	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	25d	1	1.10mi
840 Boardwalk Ave Bentonville, AR	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,465	$1.33	25d	1	1.11mi
830 Ventnor Ave Bentonville, AR	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,350	$1.23	22d	1	1.11mi
831 Ventnor Ave Bentonville, AR	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,525	$1.39	25d	1	1.12mi
156 Copper Oaks Dr Centerton, AR	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,550	$1.36	25d	1	1.12mi
860 Ventnor Ave Bentonville, AR	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,350	$1.23	25d	1	1.13mi
861 Ventnor Ave Bentonville, AR	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,350	$1.23	25d	1	1.14mi
830 Massachusetts Ave Bentonville, AR	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,718	$1.37	25d	1	1.15mi
881 Ventnor Ave Centerton, AR	3.0	2.5	1250	$1,550	$1.24	25d	1	1.15mi
841 Tennessee Ave Bentonville, AR	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,640	$1.31	25d	1	1.15mi
831 Massachusetts Ave Bentonville, AR	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,718	$1.37	25d	1	1.16mi
840 States Ave Bentonville, AR	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,624	$1.48	25d	1	1.17mi
890 Tennessee Ave Bentonville, AR	3.0	2.5	1250	$1,595	$1.28	22d	1	1.18mi
860 States Ave Bentonville, AR	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,718	$1.37	25d	1	1.18mi
891 States Ave Bentonville, AR	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,718	$1.37	25d	1	1.21mi
960 Ventnor Ave Centerton, AR	3.0	2.5	1250	$1,750	$1.40	25d	1	1.22mi
931 States Ave Bentonville, AR	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,718	$1.37	25d	1	1.23mi
821 Arctic Ave Bentonville, AR	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,726	$1.38	25d	1	1.24mi
803 SW Green World St Bentonville, AR	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,695	$1.19	25d	1	1.24mi
261 Copper Oaks Dr Centerton, AR	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,425	$1.07	25d	1	1.24mi
263 Copper Oaks Dr Centerton, AR	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,425	$1.07	25d	1	1.25mi
1031 Kentucky Ave Bentonville, AR	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	25d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $230,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   remarks 524-char remark
4. 2026-06-14
   listed $230,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,695 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,695 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,695
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$6,062
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,455
• After-tax cash flow: $-480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bentonville School District
• NCES district ID: 0503060
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,721
• Composite: 51.85/100
• National rank: #1661
• State rank: #3 of 238 in AR

Livability — Centerton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #3194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centerton, AR
• County: Benton County · 259,241 people
• City population: 19,701
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 19,701
• Household income: $113,542
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 374.0

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.87%
• Current HPI: 320.376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.64%
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+253.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $230,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $209,950 Public Records
• 2025-03-20 Sold (MLS) $209,950 NWARMLS
• 2025-02-21 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $209,950 NWARMLS
• 2025-01-03 Listed $210,000 NWARMLS
• 2023-09-21 Rental Removed $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-03 Listed for Rent $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-29 Rental Removed $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-20 Listed for Rent $1,100 APPFOLIO
• 2020-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-27 Sold (MLS) $130,000 NWARMLS
• 2020-07-08 Listed $140,000 NWARMLS
• 2016-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $98,700 Public Records
• 2016-10-20 Sold (MLS) $98,700 NWARMLS
• 2016-08-31 Listed $105,000 NWARMLS
• 2001-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,695 · +10.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.