6850 SE 88 Ln · Newberry, FL 32693

$219,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,910 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2021 0.28 ac lot $115/sqft · 10% above area Est $198k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

COUNTRY BUT NOT ACRES! This 5 year old home is 5 minutes to Newberry but in Gilchrist Co. It is just over 1/4 of an acre. Chickens and dogs are welcome! It is a Farm House Style 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a wheel chair ramp accessibility. Shiplap siding was installed inside to enhance the Farm House Style and to help feature the enormous kitchen with a huge gas range and hood and an island that is 10 x 4 and easily seats 4-6 guests. All the kitchen cupboards have custom drawers. A sliding barn door assesses the butler pantry where you find the wine cooler + huge laundry room. The dining room is 10 x 12 and large enough to serve a good size crowd. NO CARPET! Beautiful LVP flooring throughout

Key facts

• Shiplap siding
• Wine cooler
• Large laundry room

Tags

• WHEEL CHAIR RAMP ACCESSIBILITY
• SHIPLAP SIDING
• HUGE GAS RANGE
• BUTLER PANTRY
• WINE COOLER
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.28 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Propane
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Single-story; South-facing; Homesteaded; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide (manufactured)
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Balcony; Storage; Wire fencing; Public maintained road with limerock surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Wine refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room (separate); Exhaust fan; Water filtration system
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilchrist (rural): math 66% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #9 of 73 in FL (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 94 units permitted in Gilchrist County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Gilchrist County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $219k implies a 5460% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,498 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,454
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: 10.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $126,407
• Equity at exit: $197,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $366,455
• Equity at exit: $425,469

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32693

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,865 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,447/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,722

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $219,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $219,000 Active 961-char remark
17. 2026-03-12
    historical
18. 2026-01-12
    price $229,000
19. 2025-12-22
    status Active
20. 2025-08-07
    listed $239,000 Active
21. 2004-07-30
    soldstatus $3,939

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,447 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,818 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$371/yr (+$31/mo · 25.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$1,447
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$2,381
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$572
• After-tax cash flow: $1,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilchrist
• NCES district ID: 1200630
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,610
• Composite: 53.01/100
• National rank: #1522
• State rank: #9 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,692

Population outlook (Gilchrist County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,730 people
• By 2030: 17,722 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 17,393 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 16,597 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 14,300 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 11,498 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Gilchrist

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.81%
• Current HPI: 363.4299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+5459.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-07 Listed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $3,939 Public Records

Property tax history

+40.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,447 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.