561 Corson Tavern Rd Unit L9 · Dennis, NJ 08230

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $167/sqft · 55% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unit L9. Fantastic unit located in Down the Shore seasonal park minutes to SIC & OC. This is one of the premier lots in the entire campground. This is the last site on the highly desirable lake front street. You will never have anyone on the one side of you, and it looks like there is plenty of room to add an addition for yet even more interior space (buyer due diligence and permits needed) This unit is titled as a 2026 but was placed on the lot last year. 2 FULL bedrooms with lots of shaker style white built ins, huge shaker style storage area, ample size kitchen with SS appliances and a full-size range with microwave above it. Great size bathroom, and lots of upgrades. Massive size rear yard too This unit comes with a golf cart & 2026 paid season ($10425) (with full price offer), kayak and little oar boat. This is a gated community with lots of planned family activities, pool, mini golf, food trucks on weekends and minutes to the beach!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Lake front street
• Mini golf

Tags

• LAKE FRONT STREET
• GATED COMMUNITY
• POOL
• MINI GOLF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dennis Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 877 units permitted in Cape May County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cape May County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $94,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.37%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $64,540
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: 54.94%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $3,684
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $28,871
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08230

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    listed $100,000 Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    Unit L9. Fantastic unit located in Down the Shore seasonal park minutes to SIC & OC. This is one of the premier lots in the entire campground. This is the last site on the highly desirable lake front street. You will never have anyone on the one side of you, and it looks like there is plenty of room to add an addition for yet even more interior space (buyer due diligence and permits needed) This unit is titled as a 2026 but was placed on the lot last year. 2 FULL bedrooms with lots of shaker style white built ins, huge shaker style storage area, ample size kitchen with SS appliances and a full-size range with microwave above it. Great size bathroom, and lots of upgrades. Massive size rear yard too This unit comes with a golf cart & 2026 paid season ($10425) (with full price offer), kayak and little oar boat. This is a gated community with lots of planned family activities, pool, mini golf, food trucks on weekends and minutes to the beach!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,219
• − Management: −$1,219
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,288
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$549
• After-tax cash flow: $3,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The property is located in a desirable area with a lake view and ample space for expansion. The home is move-in ready and would be an excellent investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal can enhance the home's visual appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improving the landscaping and curb appeal can enhance the home's visual appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dennis Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3403840
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $72,052
• Composite: 31.16/100
• National rank: #6055
• State rank: #284 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Dennis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean View, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 5,998

Population outlook (Cape May County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,234 people
• By 2030: 84,144 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 75,146 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 67,389 · -23.6%
• By 2075: 55,732 · -36.8%
• By 2100: 44,972 · -49.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cape May

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 39.7% · R 58.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+15.9 2016: R+19.9 2012: R+8.9 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.62%
• Current HPI: 347.2196
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS