527 Baumgardner Rd · Willow Street, PA 17584

$145,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,476 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1940 0.56 ac lot $98/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Upcoming Auction May 9th 2026 at 11a. m. Four Bedroom with one and a half bath home with Excellent Location. THIS PROPERTY IS DEFINITLEY IN NEED OF MAJOR RENOVATIONS, REPAIR, & UPDATES! Rural Country Setting w/ Farmland Views Pequea Township – Lancaster County Penn Manor School District “Highly Motivated Seller – To Settle Estate” REAL ESTATE DETAILS: MAIN LEVEL: Kitchen (14′ x 15’6″) – Built-In Cabinets, Kitchen Aid Dishwasher, Tappan Gas Stove, Frigidaire Two (2) Door Refrigerator, Center Island, Drop Ceiling, Ceiling Fan, Paneled Walls, Vinyl Floor Dining Room (12′ x 12′) – Ceiling Fan, Paneled Walls, Carpet Living Room (12′ x 25’6″) – Friedrich Window Air Conditioner, Painted Paneled Walls, Carpeted Reading Area (9′ x 13’6″) – Paneled, Carpeted Laundry Area (6’6″ x 9′) – Washer & Dryer Hook-Up, Whirlpool Washer, Samsung Dryer, Cabinets, Painted & Wallpaper Walls, Vinyl Floor Bathroom (5’6″ x 10′) – Vanity, Cabinets, Tub/Shower, Toilet, Wallpaper, Vinyl Floor SECOND LEVEL: Hallway – Ceiling Fan Bedroom #1 (11’6″ x 15′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpet, Closet (3′ x 12′) Bedroom #2 (8’6″ x 16′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpet, Closet (2’6″ x 8′) Powder Room (5’6″ x 3′) – Toilet, Painted Walls, Carpet Bedroom #3 (12′ x 12′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpeted, Closet (3′ x 3′) Bedroom #4 (11′ x 13′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpeted, Closet (2’6″ x 8′) UNFINISHED BASEMENT (22′ X 24′): Kinetico Drinking Water System Sump Pump 100 Amp Electrical Service VINYL SIDED GARAGE (25′ X 25′): Two (2) Service Doors Electric Overhead Door w/ Opener Asphalt Shingle Roof Cornice, Soffit & Aluminum Spouting OTHER REAL ESTATE DETAILS: Built 1940 1,476 Square Feet Lot Size: 0.56-Acre Oil Fired Furnace – Trianco Heat Maker Furnace 275 Gallon Oil Tank Well Water w/ Pressurized System Septic System Rubber Roof Cornice, Soffit & Aluminum Spouting Front Porch w/ Vinyl Ceiling (7’6″ x 24′) Gravel Driveway Front & Rear Yards Mature Shade & Shrubbery Vinyl Sided Double Door Outdoor Storage Shed (12′ x 20′) – Asphalt Shingle Roof Metal Sided Two (2) Double Door Shed (10′ x 20′)

Key facts

• Farmland views
• Built-in cabinets
• Tappan gas stove

Tags

• RURAL COUNTRY SETTING
• FARMLAND VIEWS
• BUILT-IN CABINETS
• KITCHEN AID DISHWASHER
• TAPPAN GAS STOVE
• CENTER ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $620 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#738 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Penn Manor SD (suburban): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #80 of 539 in PA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $145k implies a 590% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.34%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,940
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: -56.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
681 Baumgardner Rd	0.34mi	4/1.5	1,661 (+12%)	4mo	$315,000	$190	58
579 Baumgardner Rd	0.13mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,654 (+12%)	18mo	$350,000	$212	54
724 Baumgardner Rd	0.44mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,574 (+7%)	12mo	$325,000	$206	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $16,134
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $65,413
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17584

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,865/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $620

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,447

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $702	-5% $661	+0% $620	+5% $579	+10% $538
Rent	-10% $444	-5% $532	+0% $620	+5% $709	+10% $797
Rate	-1.0pp $693	-0.5pp $657	base $620	+0.5pp $583	+1.0pp $545

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2843 Willow Street Pike N Willow Street, PA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	14d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 2568-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2568 chars)

   Upcoming Auction May 9th 2026 at 11a. m. Four Bedroom with one and a half bath home with Excellent Location. THIS PROPERTY IS DEFINITLEY IN NEED OF MAJOR RENOVATIONS, REPAIR, & UPDATES! Rural Country Setting w/ Farmland Views Pequea Township – Lancaster County Penn Manor School District “Highly Motivated Seller – To Settle Estate” REAL ESTATE DETAILS: MAIN LEVEL: Kitchen (14′ x 15’6″) – Built-In Cabinets, Kitchen Aid Dishwasher, Tappan Gas Stove, Frigidaire Two (2) Door Refrigerator, Center Island, Drop Ceiling, Ceiling Fan, Paneled Walls, Vinyl Floor Dining Room (12′ x 12′) – Ceiling Fan, Paneled Walls, Carpet Living Room (12′ x 25’6″) – Friedrich Window Air Conditioner, Painted Paneled Walls, Carpeted Reading Area (9′ x 13’6″) – Paneled, Carpeted Laundry Area (6’6″ x 9′) – Washer & Dryer Hook-Up, Whirlpool Washer, Samsung Dryer, Cabinets, Painted & Wallpaper Walls, Vinyl Floor Bathroom (5’6″ x 10′) – Vanity, Cabinets, Tub/Shower, Toilet, Wallpaper, Vinyl Floor SECOND LEVEL: Hallway – Ceiling Fan Bedroom #1 (11’6″ x 15′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpet, Closet (3′ x 12′) Bedroom #2 (8’6″ x 16′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpet, Closet (2’6″ x 8′) Powder Room (5’6″ x 3′) – Toilet, Painted Walls, Carpet Bedroom #3 (12′ x 12′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpeted, Closet (3′ x 3′) Bedroom #4 (11′ x 13′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpeted, Closet (2’6″ x 8′) UNFINISHED BASEMENT (22′ X 24′): Kinetico Drinking Water System Sump Pump 100 Amp Electrical Service VINYL SIDED GARAGE (25′ X 25′): Two (2) Service Doors Electric Overhead Door w/ Opener Asphalt Shingle Roof Cornice, Soffit & Aluminum Spouting OTHER REAL ESTATE DETAILS: Built 1940 1,476 Square Feet Lot Size: 0.56-Acre Oil Fired Furnace – Trianco Heat Maker Furnace 275 Gallon Oil Tank Well Water w/ Pressurized System Septic System Rubber Roof Cornice, Soffit & Aluminum Spouting Front Porch w/ Vinyl Ceiling (7’6″ x 24′) Gravel Driveway Front & Rear Yards Mature Shade & Shrubbery Vinyl Sided Double Door Outdoor Storage Shed (12′ x 20′) – Asphalt Shingle Roof Metal Sided Two (2) Double Door Shed (10′ x 20′)

2. 2026-05-11
   price $145,000 2568-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2568 chars)

   Upcoming Auction May 9th 2026 at 11a. m. Four Bedroom with one and a half bath home with Excellent Location. THIS PROPERTY IS DEFINITLEY IN NEED OF MAJOR RENOVATIONS, REPAIR, & UPDATES! Rural Country Setting w/ Farmland Views Pequea Township – Lancaster County Penn Manor School District “Highly Motivated Seller – To Settle Estate” REAL ESTATE DETAILS: MAIN LEVEL: Kitchen (14′ x 15’6″) – Built-In Cabinets, Kitchen Aid Dishwasher, Tappan Gas Stove, Frigidaire Two (2) Door Refrigerator, Center Island, Drop Ceiling, Ceiling Fan, Paneled Walls, Vinyl Floor Dining Room (12′ x 12′) – Ceiling Fan, Paneled Walls, Carpet Living Room (12′ x 25’6″) – Friedrich Window Air Conditioner, Painted Paneled Walls, Carpeted Reading Area (9′ x 13’6″) – Paneled, Carpeted Laundry Area (6’6″ x 9′) – Washer & Dryer Hook-Up, Whirlpool Washer, Samsung Dryer, Cabinets, Painted & Wallpaper Walls, Vinyl Floor Bathroom (5’6″ x 10′) – Vanity, Cabinets, Tub/Shower, Toilet, Wallpaper, Vinyl Floor SECOND LEVEL: Hallway – Ceiling Fan Bedroom #1 (11’6″ x 15′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpet, Closet (3′ x 12′) Bedroom #2 (8’6″ x 16′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpet, Closet (2’6″ x 8′) Powder Room (5’6″ x 3′) – Toilet, Painted Walls, Carpet Bedroom #3 (12′ x 12′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpeted, Closet (3′ x 3′) Bedroom #4 (11′ x 13′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpeted, Closet (2’6″ x 8′) UNFINISHED BASEMENT (22′ X 24′): Kinetico Drinking Water System Sump Pump 100 Amp Electrical Service VINYL SIDED GARAGE (25′ X 25′): Two (2) Service Doors Electric Overhead Door w/ Opener Asphalt Shingle Roof Cornice, Soffit & Aluminum Spouting OTHER REAL ESTATE DETAILS: Built 1940 1,476 Square Feet Lot Size: 0.56-Acre Oil Fired Furnace – Trianco Heat Maker Furnace 275 Gallon Oil Tank Well Water w/ Pressurized System Septic System Rubber Roof Cornice, Soffit & Aluminum Spouting Front Porch w/ Vinyl Ceiling (7’6″ x 24′) Gravel Driveway Front & Rear Yards Mature Shade & Shrubbery Vinyl Sided Double Door Outdoor Storage Shed (12′ x 20′) – Asphalt Shingle Roof Metal Sided Two (2) Double Door Shed (10′ x 20′)

3. 2026-04-14
   listed $50,000 Active 2568-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2568 chars)

   Upcoming Auction May 9th 2026 at 11a. m. Four Bedroom with one and a half bath home with Excellent Location. THIS PROPERTY IS DEFINITLEY IN NEED OF MAJOR RENOVATIONS, REPAIR, & UPDATES! Rural Country Setting w/ Farmland Views Pequea Township – Lancaster County Penn Manor School District “Highly Motivated Seller – To Settle Estate” REAL ESTATE DETAILS: MAIN LEVEL: Kitchen (14′ x 15’6″) – Built-In Cabinets, Kitchen Aid Dishwasher, Tappan Gas Stove, Frigidaire Two (2) Door Refrigerator, Center Island, Drop Ceiling, Ceiling Fan, Paneled Walls, Vinyl Floor Dining Room (12′ x 12′) – Ceiling Fan, Paneled Walls, Carpet Living Room (12′ x 25’6″) – Friedrich Window Air Conditioner, Painted Paneled Walls, Carpeted Reading Area (9′ x 13’6″) – Paneled, Carpeted Laundry Area (6’6″ x 9′) – Washer & Dryer Hook-Up, Whirlpool Washer, Samsung Dryer, Cabinets, Painted & Wallpaper Walls, Vinyl Floor Bathroom (5’6″ x 10′) – Vanity, Cabinets, Tub/Shower, Toilet, Wallpaper, Vinyl Floor SECOND LEVEL: Hallway – Ceiling Fan Bedroom #1 (11’6″ x 15′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpet, Closet (3′ x 12′) Bedroom #2 (8’6″ x 16′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpet, Closet (2’6″ x 8′) Powder Room (5’6″ x 3′) – Toilet, Painted Walls, Carpet Bedroom #3 (12′ x 12′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpeted, Closet (3′ x 3′) Bedroom #4 (11′ x 13′) – Drop Ceiling, Painted Walls, Carpeted, Closet (2’6″ x 8′) UNFINISHED BASEMENT (22′ X 24′): Kinetico Drinking Water System Sump Pump 100 Amp Electrical Service VINYL SIDED GARAGE (25′ X 25′): Two (2) Service Doors Electric Overhead Door w/ Opener Asphalt Shingle Roof Cornice, Soffit & Aluminum Spouting OTHER REAL ESTATE DETAILS: Built 1940 1,476 Square Feet Lot Size: 0.56-Acre Oil Fired Furnace – Trianco Heat Maker Furnace 275 Gallon Oil Tank Well Water w/ Pressurized System Septic System Rubber Roof Cornice, Soffit & Aluminum Spouting Front Porch w/ Vinyl Ceiling (7’6″ x 24′) Gravel Driveway Front & Rear Yards Mature Shade & Shrubbery Vinyl Sided Double Door Outdoor Storage Shed (12′ x 20′) – Asphalt Shingle Roof Metal Sided Two (2) Double Door Shed (10′ x 20′)

4. 1975-01-27
   soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,865 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,865 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,865
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,143
• − Management: −$2,143
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $5,568
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,336
• After-tax cash flow: $6,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penn Manor SD
• NCES district ID: 4218630
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,275
• Composite: 50.67/100
• National rank: #1826
• State rank: #80 of 539 in PA

Livability — Willow Street

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #7390

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 11,646
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 11,646
• Household income: $108,723
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 511.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.51%
• Current HPI: 256.8264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+590.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1975-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,865 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.