1816 Hidden Valley Rd · Granbury, TX 76049

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,790 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2021 10,019 sqft lot $123/sqft · 9% below area Est $242k · 9% under $2/mo HOA ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ATTENTION INVESTORS!!! PRICED WITH THE INVESTOR IN MIND! This home has a HUGE open living area with a modern open floor plan, high vaulted ceilings, and split bedrooms, and sits on two lots! It is on 2 lots, includes a two car garage, and a separate laundry room. The second bedroom is unusually large at 13x14 with a walk in closet! Granite countertops in the kitchen and both baths! INVESTORS - This could be your next project! The home is actually in really good condition, except that it needs two things: 1) it needs approx 8k in foundation work (ask for bid paperwork), and then it will need approximately 8k in flooring repair, STILL leaving room for profit on the back end with a potential s

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (2.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.8% in Granbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#628 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 690 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,198 (2.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.86%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,417
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: -5.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1029 Calinco Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,755 (-2%)	7mo	$310,000	$177	66
1814 Bronco Rd	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,760 (-2%)	22mo	$285,000	$162	64
1832 Smokehouse Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,956 (+9%)	16mo	$185,000	$95	61
1300 3rd St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,849 (+3%)	5mo	$334,900	$181	60
1307 3rd St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,737 (-3%)	8mo	$289,000	$166	59
1937 Ports O Call Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,782 (-0%)	12mo	$550,000	$309	57
1217 Hidden Cove Ct	0.48mi	3/3.0	1,879 (+5%)	17mo	$744,990	$396	51
607 Ranch Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-12%)	24mo	$284,000	$179	44
1105 Harbor Lakes Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,633 (-9%)	22mo	$324,900	$199	42
502 Western Hills Trl	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,041 (+14%)	8mo	$369,999	$181	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-21,407
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $14,371
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76049

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 690
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,142 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,586/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,956

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1713 Bronco Rd Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1520	$1,800	$1.18	7d	1	0.26mi
807 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,950	$1.52	44d	1	0.32mi
811 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,050	$1.45	44d	1	0.33mi
809 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,050	$1.45	44d	1	0.33mi
805 Branding Iron Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,950	$1.52	44d	1	0.34mi
1017 Meadowlark Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1725	$2,300	$1.33	13d	1	0.87mi
1111 Dove Hollow Rd Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1789	$2,399	$1.34	44d	1	0.97mi
209 Johnson St Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	2622	$3,000	$1.14	44d	1	1.09mi
1708 Rockview Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	2334	$2,700	$1.16	18d	1	1.09mi
3142 Shady Grove Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,950	$1.34	24d	1	1.26mi
800 Chanel Dr Granbury, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1029	$1,948	$1.89	1d	10	1.31mi
4007 Sioux Ct Granbury, TX	3.0	3.0	2595	$2,995	$1.15	12d	1	1.32mi
1418 Cheyenne Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,400	$1.31	44d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $219,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    historical
15. 2026-01-09
    price $230,000
16. 2025-11-19
    listed $240,000 Active
17. 2025-10-17
    historical
18. 2025-04-22
    listed $239,999 Active
19. 2024-09-28
    listed $240,000 Active
20. 2024-03-10
    listed $278,000 Active
21. 2024-02-27
    historical
22. 2024-01-13
    price $287,000
23. 2023-11-21
    price $300,000
24. 2023-08-17
    listed $310,000 Active
25. 2022-04-29
    soldstatus
26. 2020-07-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,586 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,024 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$438/yr (+$37/mo · 12.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,586
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
• − Management: −$2,056
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$1,833
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$440
• After-tax cash flow: $2,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Granbury

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11998

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• City population: 58,506
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,506
• Household income: $104,967
• Rent vs Own: 12.3% rent · 87.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.09%
• Current HPI: 273.1293
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.20%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-22 Listed $239,999 NTREIS
• 2024-09-28 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2024-03-10 Listed $278,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-01-13 Price Changed $287,000 NTREIS
• 2023-11-21 Price Changed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2023-08-17 Listed $310,000 NTREIS
• 2022-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+40.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,586 · -9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.