3749 Embassy Cir · East Lake, FL 34685

$195,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,054 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1989 0.55 ac lot $378/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous home in gated Presidents Landing in Lansbrook with great lot featuring true privacy with relaxing Water View. Stunning Entry with Beveled Glass Front Doors, Beautiful Travertine Floors, Soaring Ceilings and Crown Molding. All Bathrooms updated as well as Kitchen with rich Granite Countertops and Wood Cabinets complete with all Stainless Steel Appliances, Double Ovens, Built-In Wine Cooler and large Breakfast Bar. Open Floor Plan, Gas Fireplace, Fantastic Outdoor Kitchen with Full-Size Fridge, large Jenn-Aire Grill, beautiful Slate and Granite Bar Area. Heated Pool and Spa with Tranquil Waterfall (Pool Heater new in 2006). Intercom with CD Player (New in 2006), Security System and Central Vac. Enjoythe Waterfront Park, Playgrounds and amenities in beautiful Lansbrook, a premier location in North Pinellas close to everything. Private Boat Launch and Slips available exclusively for residents of Presidents Landing.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Water views
• His and her closets

Tags

• GATED PRESIDENTS LANDING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WATER VIEWS
• HIS AND HER CLOSETS
• MASTER BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 3,054 (public records); total building area 4,292; Lot approximately 0.55 acre (100 x 130, asphalt road)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $378.96; quarterly fee $1,136.88); Association requires fees; Association amenities: gated community, park, playground; Association fee includes private road and trash; Pets allowed; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Irrigation with reclaimed water; Sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 3-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Public utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Other roof; Slab foundation; Built as fixer condition
• Exterior features: Screened patio/porch; Sidewalk; Pond view; Lake access (boat ramp - private; skiing allowed)

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances included (other)
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 5 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Inside laundry; Other appliances; Other flooring
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $734 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.3% in East Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#660 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.13%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $882,606
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4530 Roanoak Way	0.30mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,054 (0%)	6mo	$985,000	$323	72
3596 Florian Ter	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,776 (-9%)	1mo	$870,000	$313	71
4335 Clairidge Way	0.37mi	4/3.0	3,091 (+1%)	10mo	$825,000	$267	69
4449 Roanoak Way	0.23mi	4/3.0	3,178 (+4%)	18mo	$1,010,000	$318	64
3761 Embassy Cir	0.02mi	4/3.0	3,306 (+8%)	23mo	$900,000	$272	62
4308 Wheatland Way	0.32mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,161 (+4%)	10mo	$1,023,000	$324	62
4427 Lavender Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	3,434 (+12%)	15mo	$815,000	$237	49
4147 Grandchamp Cir	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,840 (-7%)	9mo	$730,000	$257	46
4891 Juniper Dr	0.62mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,258 (+7%)	8mo	$1,040,000	$319	45
4242 Ellinwood Blvd	0.66mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,810 (-8%)	5mo	$699,000	$249	43
4978 Kernwood Ct	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,735 (-10%)	14mo	$790,000	$289	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $6,444
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $32,210
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34685

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,057 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,387/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$378
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$642
• Net cashflow: $734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,128

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $844	-5% $789	+0% $734	+5% $679	+10% $624
Rent	-10% $493	-5% $613	+0% $734	+5% $855	+10% $975
Rate	-1.0pp $832	-0.5pp $784	base $734	+0.5pp $683	+1.0pp $632

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3713 Siena Ln Palm Harbor, FL	4.0	2.0	3017	$3,750	$1.24	5d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $378 · $4,536/yr
• Likely covers: watergaslandscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $195,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,387 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,387 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,387
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,934
• − Management: −$2,934
• − HOA: −$4,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $6,318
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,516
• After-tax cash flow: $7,292/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — East Lake

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #660
• US rank: #13305

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Lake, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 26,662
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,132
• Household income: $94,688
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 456.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.72%
• Current HPI: 271.7995
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.00%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+119.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $490,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-01 Sold (MLS) $490,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-09 Listed $549,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-10 Listed $549,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-11 Listed $615,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-10 Listed $699,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-26 Listed $799,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $679,900 Public Records
• 2003-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $357,000 Public Records
• 1999-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 1989-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,387 · -69.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.