Madera Plan · Tucson, AZ 85756

$219,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured · 96 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to The Bay at the Voyager Resort, an age qualified 55+ active and vibrant high-end manufactured home community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. This 2022 Cavco Madera home is stylish and contemporary. It is sure to please the most discerning home buyer. This home offers an expansive open-concept floor plan with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a large laundry room. Soothing neutral grey tones throughout the home will compliment any décor. The extra-large windows and 9' walls make this home feel even more spacious. The kitchen and bath cabinets are a stylish beadboard shaker style design in a white finish. The kitchen features all Stainless-Steel appliances. Additional builder upgrades include recessed lighting, wood window valances, 6-panel doors, and 2" blinds throughout the home. Flooring is a combination of ultra plush carpet and vinyl wood plank themed flooring in the kitchen, baths, and laundry room. The Primary Suite is quite large and has a walk-in closet. The Primary Bath has a 2-sink vanity and a large walk-in shower. The large guest room includes a Murphy Bed, but otherwise, the home comes unfurnished and is ready for one's personal touch. For additional storage needs, there is a large 10' x 16' covered shed. For outdoor enjoyment, there is a covered rear patio overlooking the rear yard. The home is equipped with a powerful HVAC Heat Pump for climate control, and there is a whole house soft water system. Residents al

Key facts

• Wood window valances
• Recessed lighting
• Extra-large windows

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• EXTRA-LARGE WINDOWS
• STAINLESS-STEEL APPLIANCES
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• WOOD WINDOW VALANCES
• 6-PANEL DOORS

🏗️ New construction. The $219,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $194,198.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Desert Willow Elementary School (math 50% / reading 55%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 712 students, 34% FRL); Rincon Vista Middle School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade D, #47 of 218 statewide, top 21%, 699 students, 23% FRL); Mica Mountain High (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #60 of 381 statewide, top 16%, 1,161 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,290 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.45%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,198
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: 12.77%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8401 S Kolb Rd Rd #415	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+5%)	10mo	$140,000	$96	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,866
• Equity at exit: $28,956

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-1,822
• Equity at exit: $16,791

Cash invested: $54,375 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85756

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,069 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,018
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$243 /mo · $2,913/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,699

Max offer price $194,198

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $426	-5% $359	+0% $292	+5% $225	+10% $158
Rent	-10% $129	-5% $210	+0% $292	+5% $374	+10% $456
Rate	-1.0pp $390	-0.5pp $342	base $292	+0.5pp $242	+1.0pp $191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,549
• Closing costs: $5,826
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7380 E Maritime Dr Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.5	1800	$3,000	$1.67	3d	1	0.20mi
7500 E Voyager Rd Unit 138 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,599	$1.07	21d	1	0.25mi
6794 E Sea Horse Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	45d	1	1.14mi
8042 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	12d	1	1.15mi
8011 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,900	$1.06	3d	1	1.22mi
6642 E Bambino Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1601	$1,895	$1.18	3d	1	1.27mi
6555 E Brushback Loop Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1632	$1,895	$1.16	45d	1	1.39mi
6590 E Cooperstown Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,750	$1.32	12d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    status Active 1511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1511 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Welcome to The Bay at the Voyager Resort, an age qualified 55+ active and vibrant high-end manufactured home community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. This 2022 Cavco Madera home is stylish and contemporary. It is sure to please the most discerning home buyer. This home offers an expansive open-concept floor plan with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a large laundry room. Soothing neutral grey tones throughout the home will compliment any décor. The extra-large windows and 9' walls make this home feel even more spacious. The kitchen and bath cabinets are a stylish beadboard shaker style design in a white finish. The kitchen features all Stainless-Steel appliances. Additional builder upgrades include recessed lighting, wood window valances, 6-panel doors, and 2" blinds throughout the home. Flooring is a combination of ultra plush carpet and vinyl wood plank themed flooring in the kitchen, baths, and laundry room. The Primary Suite is quite large and has a walk-in closet. The Primary Bath has a 2-sink vanity and a large walk-in shower. The large guest room includes a Murphy Bed, but otherwise, the home comes unfurnished and is ready for one's personal touch. For additional storage needs, there is a large 10' x 16' covered shed. For outdoor enjoyment, there is a covered rear patio overlooking the rear yard. The home is equipped with a powerful HVAC Heat Pump for climate control, and there is a whole house soft water system. Residents al

18. 2026-04-11
    historical 1511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1511 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Welcome to The Bay at the Voyager Resort, an age qualified 55+ active and vibrant high-end manufactured home community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. This 2022 Cavco Madera home is stylish and contemporary. It is sure to please the most discerning home buyer. This home offers an expansive open-concept floor plan with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a large laundry room. Soothing neutral grey tones throughout the home will compliment any décor. The extra-large windows and 9' walls make this home feel even more spacious. The kitchen and bath cabinets are a stylish beadboard shaker style design in a white finish. The kitchen features all Stainless-Steel appliances. Additional builder upgrades include recessed lighting, wood window valances, 6-panel doors, and 2" blinds throughout the home. Flooring is a combination of ultra plush carpet and vinyl wood plank themed flooring in the kitchen, baths, and laundry room. The Primary Suite is quite large and has a walk-in closet. The Primary Bath has a 2-sink vanity and a large walk-in shower. The large guest room includes a Murphy Bed, but otherwise, the home comes unfurnished and is ready for one's personal touch. For additional storage needs, there is a large 10' x 16' covered shed. For outdoor enjoyment, there is a covered rear patio overlooking the rear yard. The home is equipped with a powerful HVAC Heat Pump for climate control, and there is a whole house soft water system. Residents al

19. 2026-02-20
    listed $219,000 Active 1511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1511 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Welcome to The Bay at the Voyager Resort, an age qualified 55+ active and vibrant high-end manufactured home community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. This 2022 Cavco Madera home is stylish and contemporary. It is sure to please the most discerning home buyer. This home offers an expansive open-concept floor plan with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a large laundry room. Soothing neutral grey tones throughout the home will compliment any décor. The extra-large windows and 9' walls make this home feel even more spacious. The kitchen and bath cabinets are a stylish beadboard shaker style design in a white finish. The kitchen features all Stainless-Steel appliances. Additional builder upgrades include recessed lighting, wood window valances, 6-panel doors, and 2" blinds throughout the home. Flooring is a combination of ultra plush carpet and vinyl wood plank themed flooring in the kitchen, baths, and laundry room. The Primary Suite is quite large and has a walk-in closet. The Primary Bath has a 2-sink vanity and a large walk-in shower. The large guest room includes a Murphy Bed, but otherwise, the home comes unfurnished and is ready for one's personal touch. For additional storage needs, there is a large 10' x 16' covered shed. For outdoor enjoyment, there is a covered rear patio overlooking the rear yard. The home is equipped with a powerful HVAC Heat Pump for climate control, and there is a whole house soft water system. Residents al

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥104°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,878
• − Property taxes: −$2,913
• − Insurance: −$971
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,986
• − Management: −$1,986
• − Depreciation: −$5,649
• Taxable income: $440
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$106
• After-tax cash flow: $3,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2022 Cavco Madera manufactured home in a 55+ community is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and is ready for a new owner.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Deep clean carpets — Improves living space appearance and comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Deep clean carpets — Improves living space appearance and comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,700
• Household income: $72,490
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 23% Black 7% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 39% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.28%
• Current HPI: 304.0243
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-20 Listed $219,000 Zillow