17451 SW 25th Cir · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2021 0.50 ac lot $195/sqft · 10% below area Est $277k · 10% under $1/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. Come see this beautiful, award winning 3 bedroom / 2 bath home voted Best Value Overall! This new construction home offers a spacious split plan with cathedral ceilings in the living room and kitchen. Kitchen design features stainless appliances with stunning granite counter tops to compliment the upgraded wood cabinetry featuring self-closing drawers and doors! You will enjoy entertaining in this kitchen with its eight-foot serving counter and sliding door leading to the attached, enclosed lanai! Master bedroom is spacious and features a walk-in closet with a custom tiled master bath and wood cabinetry with granite counters! All wet areas are tiled in 18 x 18 ceramic tile with carpeted living areas. A two car garage boasts painted interior, epoxy flooring, and two auto garage remotes. All homes feature upgraded plumbing and lighting fixtures and are complete block construction. Finally, you can rest assured with the 2-10 Home Buyer's Warrant supplied by the Seller! This is an active construction site with completion expected mid-March 2021.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.5 acre; Asphalt road access
• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed (not included per instructions)
• HOA & community: Member of The Marion Oaks Civic Association, Inc; HOA required with annual fee ($10); Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available; Water available; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Other fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Security system (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,017 students, 73% FRL); Horizon Academy At Marion Oaks (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,067 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,947 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,680
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -9.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16847 SW 22nd Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-2%)	2mo	$225,000	$178	62
8461 SW 41 Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-2%)	11mo	$256,390	$203	54
16958 SW 20th Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+6%)	15mo	$245,000	$181	48
2730 SW 173rd Place Rd	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,462 (+14%)	13mo	$243,400	$166	46
2580 SW 168th Pl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,123 (-12%)	16mo	$207,000	$184	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-52,869
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-76,735
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,949 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$228 /mo · $2,735/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$1
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,081

Max offer price $231,629

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-33	+0% $-104	+5% $-175	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-181	+0% $-104	+5% $-27	+10% $50
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $-40	base $-104	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17399 SW 25th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,800	$1.37	23d	1	0.16mi
17490 SW 27th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,100	$1.18	15d	1	0.17mi
16846 SW 22nd Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,900	$1.20	15d	1	0.73mi
2220 SW 169th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,650	$1.21	23d	1	0.74mi
16910 SW 27th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,550	$1.37	23d	1	0.78mi
17029 SW 30th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,745	$1.33	15d	1	0.80mi
2628 SW 165th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	0.82mi
3022 SW 168th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,800	$1.22	15d	1	0.88mi
3087 SW 172nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1676	$2,150	$1.28	15d	1	0.94mi
1663 SW 167th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	15d	1	1.10mi
16690 SW 29th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,725	$1.07	23d	1	1.15mi
16619 SW 31st Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,900	$1.24	15d	1	1.25mi
2660 SW 162nd Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$1,999	$1.13	23d	1	1.29mi
16390 SW 17th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,825	$1.16	15d	1	1.30mi
16253 SW 19th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1006	$1,595	$1.59	15d	1	1.33mi
16252 SW 27th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	15d	1	1.35mi
2670 162nd Ln Unit 2670 Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$2,000	$1.16	23d	1	1.37mi
2711 SW 162nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,150	$1.20	15d	1	1.38mi
16200 SW 21st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,800	$1.14	23d	1	1.41mi
2836 SW 161st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	15d	1	1.42mi
16124 SW 23rd Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,715	$1.26	15d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1 · $12/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $250,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $254,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $254,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $260,000 436-char remark
18. 2026-04-28
    listed $265,000 Active 436-char remark
19. 2026-04-23
    soldstatus $244,600
20. 2021-04-07
    soldstatus $180,000 Closed 1079-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

    Under Construction. Come see this beautiful, award winning 3 bedroom / 2 bath home voted Best Value Overall! This new construction home offers a spacious split plan with cathedral ceilings in the living room and kitchen. Kitchen design features stainless appliances with stunning granite counter tops to compliment the upgraded wood cabinetry featuring self-closing drawers and doors! You will enjoy entertaining in this kitchen with its eight-foot serving counter and sliding door leading to the attached, enclosed lanai! Master bedroom is spacious and features a walk-in closet with a custom tiled master bath and wood cabinetry with granite counters! All wet areas are tiled in 18 x 18 ceramic tile with carpeted living areas. A two car garage boasts painted interior, epoxy flooring, and two auto garage remotes. All homes feature upgraded plumbing and lighting fixtures and are complete block construction. Finally, you can rest assured with the 2-10 Home Buyer's Warrant supplied by the Seller! This is an active construction site with completion expected mid-March 2021.

21. 2021-04-01
    status Pending 1079-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

    Under Construction. Come see this beautiful, award winning 3 bedroom / 2 bath home voted Best Value Overall! This new construction home offers a spacious split plan with cathedral ceilings in the living room and kitchen. Kitchen design features stainless appliances with stunning granite counter tops to compliment the upgraded wood cabinetry featuring self-closing drawers and doors! You will enjoy entertaining in this kitchen with its eight-foot serving counter and sliding door leading to the attached, enclosed lanai! Master bedroom is spacious and features a walk-in closet with a custom tiled master bath and wood cabinetry with granite counters! All wet areas are tiled in 18 x 18 ceramic tile with carpeted living areas. A two car garage boasts painted interior, epoxy flooring, and two auto garage remotes. All homes feature upgraded plumbing and lighting fixtures and are complete block construction. Finally, you can rest assured with the 2-10 Home Buyer's Warrant supplied by the Seller! This is an active construction site with completion expected mid-March 2021.

22. 2021-01-05
    historical 1079-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

    Under Construction. Come see this beautiful, award winning 3 bedroom / 2 bath home voted Best Value Overall! This new construction home offers a spacious split plan with cathedral ceilings in the living room and kitchen. Kitchen design features stainless appliances with stunning granite counter tops to compliment the upgraded wood cabinetry featuring self-closing drawers and doors! You will enjoy entertaining in this kitchen with its eight-foot serving counter and sliding door leading to the attached, enclosed lanai! Master bedroom is spacious and features a walk-in closet with a custom tiled master bath and wood cabinetry with granite counters! All wet areas are tiled in 18 x 18 ceramic tile with carpeted living areas. A two car garage boasts painted interior, epoxy flooring, and two auto garage remotes. All homes feature upgraded plumbing and lighting fixtures and are complete block construction. Finally, you can rest assured with the 2-10 Home Buyer's Warrant supplied by the Seller! This is an active construction site with completion expected mid-March 2021.

23. 2020-11-06
    listed $180,000 1079-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

    Under Construction. Come see this beautiful, award winning 3 bedroom / 2 bath home voted Best Value Overall! This new construction home offers a spacious split plan with cathedral ceilings in the living room and kitchen. Kitchen design features stainless appliances with stunning granite counter tops to compliment the upgraded wood cabinetry featuring self-closing drawers and doors! You will enjoy entertaining in this kitchen with its eight-foot serving counter and sliding door leading to the attached, enclosed lanai! Master bedroom is spacious and features a walk-in closet with a custom tiled master bath and wood cabinetry with granite counters! All wet areas are tiled in 18 x 18 ceramic tile with carpeted living areas. A two car garage boasts painted interior, epoxy flooring, and two auto garage remotes. All homes feature upgraded plumbing and lighting fixtures and are complete block construction. Finally, you can rest assured with the 2-10 Home Buyer's Warrant supplied by the Seller! This is an active construction site with completion expected mid-March 2021.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,735 · $228/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,735 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,735
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,871
• − Management: −$1,871
• − HOA: −$12
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$5,623
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,349
• After-tax cash flow: $101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+38.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $254,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Listed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $244,600 Public Records
• 2021-04-07 Sold (MLS) $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-06 Listed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+29.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,735 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.