Concept 2623 Plan · Gunter, TX 75058

$649,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,623 sqft · SingleFamily · 863 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious home can be designed to suit your needs and wants in a home with contemporary-type comfort in mind. Choose from six different elevations, three of which have stone options to add your own style. A light-filled entry draws you into the foyer where an expansive kitchen, breakfast nook, and family room await. A cozy fireplace is set in the corner of the family room while a wall of oversized windows perfectly displays views of the backyard. Perfect for outdoor living is the optional covered patio in two different sizes and the option to add an outdoor fireplace. The passionate cook will adore having a designer kitchen with a large walk-in corner pantry, granite countertops, an island with room for seating, and stainless-steel appliances. Secluded on one side of the home is the master suite that boasts a large walk-in closet. The master bath is separated by double doors and includes his-and-hers vanities, a garden tub, a walk-in shower with a seat, and a linen closet. You could choose to convert the master bath to the luxury option with a freestanding tub and a larger walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms are nestled on the other side of the home and feature walk-in closets in addition to easy access to a full bath with a double vanity. There is the option to change bedroom two into a game room with a double-door entry, promising endless hours of fun for people of all ages. This plan offers a flex room that can be transformed into a fifth bedroom with a built-in close

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Listed 862 days

🏗️ New construction. The $649,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $724,526.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $650k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $650k).
• Recommended offer: $572k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 1.9% in Gunter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#236 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Gunter ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #103 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $77k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $72k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $203k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$125k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 863 days — a 12% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $571,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 863 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.16%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $724,526
• List price: $649,990
• Delta: -10.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
145 Knoll Trl	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,623 (0%)	3mo	$674,999	$257	82
154 Whispering Winds Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,559 (-2%)	0mo	$395,000	$154	78
300 Waterview Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,784 (+6%)	1mo	$700,000	$251	78
160 Waterview Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	2,862 (+9%)	2mo	$684,999	$239	70
105 Meadow Ln	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,798 (+7%)	12mo	$727,888	$260	68
335 Waterview Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0	3,014 (+15%)	2mo	$800,199	$265	68
340 Waterview Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,885 (+10%)	13mo	$744,888	$258	61
115 Beavers Bend Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,420 (-8%)	18mo	$535,000	$221	61
686 Cypress Point Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,767 (+6%)	1mo	$729,000	$263	54
170 Waterview Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	3,009 (+15%)	11mo	$749,888	$249	47
1389 Mcconnell Rd	0.42mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,243 (-14%)	16mo	$1,150,000	$513	36
1264 Mackey Rd	0.68mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,009 (+15%)	3mo	$2,475,000	$823	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $417,943
• Equity at exit: $652,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.98×
• Total profit: $1,212,699
• Equity at exit: $1,407,595

Cash invested: $202,867 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75058

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,799
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$906 /mo · $10,868/yr
• Insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,428
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,338

Max offer price $724,526

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $181,132
• Closing costs: $21,736
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Waterview Dr Gunter, TX	4.0	3.0	2784	$6,800	$2.44	15d	1	0.19mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $649,990 Active 863 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $649,990 Active 862 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $649,990 Active 861 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $649,990 Active 860 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $649,990 Active 858 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $649,990 Active 854 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $649,990 Active 853 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $649,990 Active 852 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $649,990 Active 849 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $649,990 Active 848 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $649,990 Active 847 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $649,990 Active 846 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $649,990 Active 845 DOM
14. 2024-02-06
    listed $649,990 Active 1505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1505 chars)

    This spacious home can be designed to suit your needs and wants in a home with contemporary-type comfort in mind. Choose from six different elevations, three of which have stone options to add your own style. A light-filled entry draws you into the foyer where an expansive kitchen, breakfast nook, and family room await. A cozy fireplace is set in the corner of the family room while a wall of oversized windows perfectly displays views of the backyard. Perfect for outdoor living is the optional covered patio in two different sizes and the option to add an outdoor fireplace. The passionate cook will adore having a designer kitchen with a large walk-in corner pantry, granite countertops, an island with room for seating, and stainless-steel appliances. Secluded on one side of the home is the master suite that boasts a large walk-in closet. The master bath is separated by double doors and includes his-and-hers vanities, a garden tub, a walk-in shower with a seat, and a linen closet. You could choose to convert the master bath to the luxury option with a freestanding tub and a larger walk-in shower. Three additional bedrooms are nestled on the other side of the home and feature walk-in closets in addition to easy access to a full bath with a double vanity. There is the option to change bedroom two into a game room with a double-door entry, promising endless hours of fun for people of all ages. This plan offers a flex room that can be transformed into a fifth bedroom with a built-in close

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $81,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,585
• − Property taxes: −$10,868
• − Insurance: −$3,623
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,528
• − Management: −$6,528
• − Depreciation: −$21,077
• Taxable loss: −$7,608
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,826
• After-tax cash flow: $6,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained single-family home with a good condition score and cosmetic rehab level is ready for a new owner or tenant. It offers a spacious layout, modern finishes, and a good curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value
• Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gunter ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821960
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $79,375
• Composite: 47.63/100
• National rank: #2254
• State rank: #103 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gunter

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #5729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gunter, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,614

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 18% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.56%
• Current HPI: 309.3751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-02-06 Listed $649,990 Zillow