319 Church Ave · Waco, TX 76706

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1950 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

All investors welcome, come see this home today. It's a 3 bedroom 2 full bathrooms just over 1600 sqft and is located by S 4th and Church St.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number: 175532
• Financial info: Loan type marked 'Treat As Clear'; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered/carport spaces (gravel surface); Has garage (attached) — listed garage spaces: 0
• Utilities: Municipal utility district: No
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Attached property; One story
• Construction: Built in 1950
• Exterior features: Asphalt utilities/drive surface; Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.3444 acre); Subdivision: GURLEY D R TR

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Cable TV available; One living area; One dining area; Total rooms: 3
• Laundry & utility: No laundry/utility appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Waco El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 462 students, 96% FRL); Cesar Chavez Middle (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 840 students, 94% FRL); University H S (math 39% / reading 31%, grade F, #954 of 1,632 statewide, top 59%, 1,678 students, 89% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 318 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,858/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 3883% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.14%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $409,356
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
916 Church Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-10%)	1mo	$254,900	$172	64
912 Church Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-12%)	1mo	$254,900	$176	62
908 Church Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-12%)	1mo	$254,900	$176	62
904 Gurley Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-12%)	3mo	$187,000	$129	59
945 Holt Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-12%)	5mo	$254,900	$176	54
2916 S 3rd St	0.14mi	4/4.5 (+1)	1,747 (+6%)	17mo	$465,000	$266	54
2103 S 7th St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,622 (-1%)	6mo	$445,000	$274	53
2304 S 2nd St	0.47mi	4/4.0 (+1)	1,728 (+5%)	8mo	$435,000	$252	50
2228 S 2nd St	0.49mi	4/4.0 (+1)	1,728 (+5%)	8mo	$429,900	$249	49
2124 S 4th St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,763 (+7%)	11mo	$325,000	$184	49
2300 S 2nd St	0.47mi	4/4.0 (+1)	1,728 (+5%)	17mo	$445,000	$258	42
2225 S 2nd St	0.46mi	4/4.5 (+1)	1,858 (+13%)	1mo	$510,000	$274	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $6,733
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $38,076
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76706

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,858 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,179/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,232

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $573	-5% $534	+0% $494	+5% $455	+10% $415
Rent	-10% $347	-5% $421	+0% $494	+5% $568	+10% $641
Rate	-1.0pp $565	-0.5pp $530	base $494	+0.5pp $458	+1.0pp $421

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2539 Pascal Ct Unit B Waco, TX	3.0	3.5	1350	$1,950	$1.44	23d	1	0.14mi
2430 S 2nd St Waco, TX	1.0–5.0	1.0–5.5	1400	$1,625	$1.16	15d	1	0.31mi
2825 S University Parks Dr Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1121	$1,228	$1.10	15d	8	0.38mi
2410 S 2nd St Waco, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–5.5	1552	$2,008	$1.29	23d	4	0.39mi
2308 S 3rd St Unit B Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,350	$1.19	15d	1	0.40mi
2415 S University Parks Dr Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1095	$2,120	$1.94	15d	27	0.46mi
331 French Ave Waco, TX	4.0	4.0	1776	$2,600	$1.46	23d	1	0.63mi
323 French Ave Waco, TX	4.0	4.0	1770	$1,900	$1.07	46d	1	0.63mi
416 Daughtrey Ave Waco, TX	4.0	4.0	1680	$2,500	$1.49	23d	1	0.73mi
2000 S 1st St Waco, TX	2.0–5.0	1.0–3.0	1318	$1,465	$1.11	15d	19	0.73mi
2011 S 7th St Unit 6B Waco, TX	3.0	3.0	1478	$2,150	$1.45	46d	1	0.73mi
2011 S 7th St Waco, TX	3.0	3.0	1484	$1,800	$1.21	23d	1	0.74mi
66 Daughtrey Ave Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,715	$2.08	15d	1	0.82mi
1918 S 8th St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1061	$1,200	$1.13	23d	1	0.82mi
600 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0–2.5	1102	$1,496	$1.36	23d	2	0.89mi
600 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5	1206	$1,795	$1.49	46d	3	0.89mi
1628 Ewing Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,400	$1.63	15d	1	0.96mi
1304 Elise Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,295	$1.60	23d	1	1.03mi
909 Placid Cir Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1415	$3,150	$2.23	23d	1	1.08mi
1909 S 14th St Waco, TX	4.0	4.0	1680	$1,600	$0.95	23d	1	1.10mi
1226 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	2240	$1,875	$0.84	23d	1	1.10mi
1916 S 15th St Waco, TX	4.0	4.0	1744	$1,800	$1.03	15d	1	1.10mi
1916 S 15th St Unit A Waco, TX	4.0	4.0	1744	$1,800	$1.03	23d	1	1.10mi
1909 S 14th St Unit B Waco, TX	4.0	4.0	1680	$1,650	$0.98	46d	1	1.10mi
1905 S 14th St Unit B Waco, TX	4.0	4.0	1200	$550	$0.46	23d	1	1.11mi
1905 S 14th St Waco, TX	4.0	4.0	1500	$3,000	$2.00	23d	1	1.11mi
1912 S 15th St Unit A Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	23d	1	1.12mi
1800 Primrose Dr Waco, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,133	$1.20	15d	33	1.19mi
1925 S 17th St Unit 1 Waco, TX	4.0	4.0	1856	$2,100	$1.13	23d	1	1.25mi
1606 Bagby Ave Waco, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,400	$1.26	23d	1	1.27mi
1311 Speight Ave #1311 Waco, TX	2.0	2.5	1143	$1,500	$1.31	23d	1	1.27mi
1311 Speight Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.5	1143	$1,195	$1.05	15d	1	1.28mi
1326 Park Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.5	1143	$1,400	$1.22	23d	1	1.32mi
1326 Park Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.5	1143	$1,400	$1.22	15d	1	1.32mi
1342 Park Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.5	1143	$1,400	$1.22	15d	1	1.32mi
1300 S 11th St Waco, TX	2.0	2.5	1083	$1,209	$1.12	15d	14	1.33mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 141-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $139,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,179 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$381/yr (+$32/mo · 17.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,179
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,784
• − Management: −$1,784
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $3,943
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$946
• After-tax cash flow: $4,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,627
• Household income: $41,656
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3883.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.31%
• Current HPI: 230.2557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $139,900 NTREIS
• 1992-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,179 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.