3100 Canfield Dr · Ferguson, MO 63136

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1957 8,960 sqft lot $137/sqft · 26% above area Est $99k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained and updated 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home featuring beautiful laminate floors throughout, updated kitchen and bath, and full unfinished basement. Current tenant in place since 2023, Lease expires 3/31/2027, paying $1300/month, offering flexibility for investors or owner-occupants. Newer furnace and AC. Pictures are from 2023 Before tenant moved in.

Key facts

• 8,960 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: HOA status unknown — please confirm

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Full concrete basement
• Exterior features: Back yard; Corner lot; Front yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Free-standing gas oven; Refrigerator; Ceiling fan(s); Central air
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#586 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Koch Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 303 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 372 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $36k; list at $125k implies a 246% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.37%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,978
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: 26.29%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9014 Ellison Dr	0.30mi	3/1.0	912 (0%)	3mo	$99,900	$110	84
9224 Ellison Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	972 (+7%)	4mo	$119,999	$123	77
324 Gage Dr	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	875 (-4%)	1mo	$68,000	$78	76
1512 Kappel Dr	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	874 (-4%)	4mo	$50,000	$57	62
277 Dashwood Dr	0.70mi	3/1.0	960 (+5%)	2mo	$74,900	$78	57
299 Dashwood Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	960 (+5%)	4mo	$114,000	$119	53
100 Florwood Ct	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,004 (+10%)	3mo	$79,900	$80	52
9750 Lorna Ln	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+13%)	4mo	$104,900	$102	50
9606 Lifford Ct	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (-12%)	1mo	$130,000	$163	45
125 Forestwood Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+13%)	3mo	$77,900	$75	42
9866 Dennis Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,032 (+13%)	3mo	$124,900	$121	42
9828 Lorna Ln	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-13%)	2mo	$65,000	$82	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $36,611
• Equity at exit: $61,849

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.11×
• Total profit: $108,885
• Equity at exit: $99,958

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,279 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,054/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,007

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1550 Northwinds Estates Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	877	$1,050	$1.20	43d	1	0.16mi
9717 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1056	$1,323	$1.25	43d	1	0.32mi
9547 Glen Owen Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	923	$985	$1.07	23d	1	0.46mi
9725 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,485	$1.63	43d	1	0.49mi
9750 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,100	$1.07	43d	1	0.52mi
8908 Scottdale Ave Jennings, MO	2.0	1.0	790	$1,000	$1.27	43d	1	0.65mi
9845 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	12d	1	0.66mi
9839 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.68mi
9850 Dennis Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.69mi
1733 Kappel Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.69mi
9840 Medford Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,095	$1.20	43d	1	0.72mi
945 Edgehill Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1110	$1,575	$1.42	43d	1	0.73mi
296 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,550	$1.61	14d	1	0.76mi
104 Fenwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	23d	1	0.77mi
9868 Lorna Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1032	$1,175	$1.14	43d	1	0.77mi
9709 Balboa Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	43d	1	0.78mi
6188 Dupree Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	972	$1,300	$1.34	43d	1	0.84mi
2617 Hord Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$775	$0.97	3d	1	0.85mi
227 Meadowcrest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	43d	1	0.85mi
249 S Hartnett Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,220	$1.27	23d	1	0.89mi
6180 Emerald Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	729	$1,300	$1.78	43d	1	0.90mi
9823 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	788	$900	$1.14	43d	1	0.90mi
9827 Winkler Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	7d	1	0.90mi
2623 Avie Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	921	$1,350	$1.47	43d	1	0.92mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	23d	1	1.03mi
1926 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1095	$995	$0.91	14d	1	1.04mi
2546 Main St Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	984	$1,269	$1.29	43d	1	1.07mi
3 Pohlman Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	704	$1,000	$1.42	16d	1	1.07mi
8893 Maya Ln Jennings, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	600	$930	$1.55	23d	6	1.08mi
1654 Mowbry Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	1.10mi
2527 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,135	$1.28	16d	1	1.10mi
7441 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,350	$1.26	12d	1	1.11mi
7 Lamar Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	894	$1,200	$1.34	17d	1	1.12mi
7733 Brand Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	656	$1,090	$1.66	23d	1	1.15mi
7426 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,125	$1.02	17d	1	1.16mi
5830 Bermuda Dr Unit 34C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	850	$895	$1.05	43d	1	1.19mi
5830 Bermuda Dr Unit 30B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$895	$0.99	23d	1	1.19mi
2427 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	43d	1	1.20mi
5600 Gatesworth Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	4d	1	1.21mi
2415 Shirley Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	23d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $125,000 Active 364-char remark
16. 1995-08-28
    soldstatus $36,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,054
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,228
• − Management: −$1,228
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $574
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$138
• After-tax cash flow: $2,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ferguson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #586
• US rank: #20809

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ferguson, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,381
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+246.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $36,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,054 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.