817 Dragonfly Dr · Conroe, TX 77301

$214,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2005 5,384 sqft lot $133/sqft · 9% below area Est $235k · 9% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready three-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home situated on a quiet street in Conroe. This residence features a modern open-concept floor plan designed for effortless movement between living spaces, creating an inviting environment for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen serves as a central hub, boasting durable countertops and a contemporary mix of black and stainless-steel appliances. The thoughtful layout ensures a functional flow throughout the main level, prioritizing comfort and convenience. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard, providing a private and secure outdoor space for relaxation, gardening, or weekend grilling. The property also features a detached two-car garage, offering ample room for vehicle parking and additional storage. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• 5,384 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,449 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.79%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,123
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: -8.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Belvedere Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,615 (-0%)	5mo	$207,900	$129	85
100 Montrose Cir	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,588 (-2%)	1mo	$209,000	$132	82
1615 Leafhopper Ln	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,589 (-2%)	6mo	$225,000	$142	81
814 N Katydid Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,591 (-2%)	5mo	$219,990	$138	81
800 Lightningbug Ln	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,620 (+0%)	17mo	$249,990	$154	79
1503 S 2nd St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-7%)	13mo	$275,000	$183	66
1199 S 3rd St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,678 (+4%)	11mo	$299,990	$179	61
109 Ponderosa Trl	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,421 (-12%)	2mo	$227,000	$160	60
4 Eastwood Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-12%)	7mo	$145,000	$102	59
100 S Ridgeway Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-11%)	14mo	$215,000	$149	58
111 Foster Oaks Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-8%)	12mo	$227,000	$153	51
1010 Long St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,467 (-9%)	8mo	$183,000	$125	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-49,557
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-69,150
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77301

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,782/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,965

Max offer price $181,285

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-69	-5% $-129	+0% $-190	+5% $-251	+10% $-312
Rent	-10% $-327	-5% $-258	+0% $-190	+5% $-122	+10% $-54
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-136	base $-190	+0.5pp $-246	+1.0pp $-303

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
816 Lightningbug Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1532	$1,724	$1.13	21d	1	0.06mi
805 Belvedere Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,624	$1.03	21d	1	0.08mi
1710 Leafhopper Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1732	$1,830	$1.06	25d	1	0.09mi
817 Lovebug Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,595	$1.25	13d	1	0.11mi
200 Montrose Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,485	$0.88	12d	1	0.22mi
1206 S Frazier St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1191	$1,315	$1.10	44d	1	0.78mi
311 Gladstell St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,299	$0.98	2d	1	0.98mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 2119 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,905	$1.66	44d	1	1.01mi
2086 Porter Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,698	$1.48	3d	1	1.01mi
2086 Porter Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	877	$2,032	$2.32	2d	1	1.01mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 3174 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,623	$1.41	12d	1	1.01mi
2086 Porter Rd Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,580	$1.37	3d	1	1.01mi
1400 S Frazier St Unit 3174 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,332	$1.07	3d	1	1.02mi
1400 S Frazier St Unit 510 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,375	$1.11	12d	1	1.02mi
1400 S Frazier St Unit 3047 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,375	$1.11	11d	1	1.02mi
500 Hickerson St Conroe, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1165	$1,456	$1.25	6d	3	1.05mi
407 Gladstell St Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	940	$1,050	$1.12	6d	3	1.06mi
1442 Natural Pine Trl Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	1848	$1,656	$0.90	14d	1	1.17mi
207 River Pointe Dr Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1117	$1,600	$1.43	44d	1	1.26mi
201 River Pointe Dr Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$1,944	$1.88	2d	18	1.28mi
1723 Hazelwood St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	1.41mi
1606 River Pointe Dr Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1057	$1,164	$1.10	44d	1	1.47mi
297 Scarborough Dr Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1093	$1,000	$0.91	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,900 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,900 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $214,900 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,900 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    price $224,900 803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (803 chars)

    Move-in ready three-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home situated on a quiet street in Conroe. This residence features a modern open-concept floor plan designed for effortless movement between living spaces, creating an inviting environment for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen serves as a central hub, boasting durable countertops and a contemporary mix of black and stainless-steel appliances. The thoughtful layout ensures a functional flow throughout the main level, prioritizing comfort and convenience. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard, providing a private and secure outdoor space for relaxation, gardening, or weekend grilling. The property also features a detached two-car garage, offering ample room for vehicle parking and additional storage. Schedule your private showing today!

15. 2026-04-02
    listed $229,900 Active 803-char remark

    Show marketing remark (803 chars)

    Move-in ready three-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home situated on a quiet street in Conroe. This residence features a modern open-concept floor plan designed for effortless movement between living spaces, creating an inviting environment for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen serves as a central hub, boasting durable countertops and a contemporary mix of black and stainless-steel appliances. The thoughtful layout ensures a functional flow throughout the main level, prioritizing comfort and convenience. Step outside to a fully fenced backyard, providing a private and secure outdoor space for relaxation, gardening, or weekend grilling. The property also features a detached two-car garage, offering ample room for vehicle parking and additional storage. Schedule your private showing today!

16. 2024-11-24
    historical $1,495
17. 2024-11-14
    price $1,495
18. 2024-10-27
    price $1,595
19. 2024-10-26
    price $1,495
20. 2024-10-23
    price $1,595
21. 2024-10-02
    listed $1,625
22. 2024-09-18
    historical $1,745
23. 2024-09-07
    listed $1,745
24. 2024-08-26
    historical
25. 2024-07-26
    price $219,900
26. 2024-06-26
    price $224,900
27. 2024-06-12
    price $229,900
28. 2024-05-24
    status Active
29. 2024-05-24
    historical
30. 2024-05-22
    listed $234,900 Active
31. 2015-04-06
    soldstatus
32. 2015-04-01
    soldstatus Sold
33. 2015-03-25
    status Pending, Continue to Show
34. 2015-03-14
    status Option Pending
35. 2015-03-10
    status Active
36. 2015-03-05
    historical
37. 2015-03-04
    listed $138,000 Active
38. 2010-07-27
    soldstatus
39. 2010-07-23
    soldstatus
40. 2010-06-28
    historical
41. 2010-06-08
    listed $89,000
42. 2009-04-07
    historical
43. 2008-06-10
    listed $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,782 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,933 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$151/yr (+$13/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$3,782
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,656
• − Management: −$1,656
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$6,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,444
• After-tax cash flow: $-840/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,769
• Household income: $66,475
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1256.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.51%
• Current HPI: 278.6662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+79.9% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2024-11-24 Rental Removed $1,495 RENTLY
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $1,495 RENTLY
• 2024-10-27 Price Changed $1,595 RENTLY
• 2024-10-26 Price Changed $1,495 RENTLY
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $1,595 RENTLY
• 2024-10-02 Listed for Rent $1,625 RENTLY
• 2024-09-18 Rental Removed $1,745 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-07 Listed for Rent $1,745 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-08-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-26 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2024-05-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-05-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-22 Listed $234,900 HARMLS
• 2015-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-04-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2015-03-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-03-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2015-03-10 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2015-03-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-03-04 Listed $138,000 HARMLS
• 2010-07-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-07-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-06-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-06-08 Listed $89,000 HARMLS
• 2009-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-06-10 Listed $125,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,782 · -15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.