Siesta Plan · Bradenton, FL 34212

$320,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily · 177 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks

This one-story floor plan features an open concept design. The well-appointed kitchen includes a large quartz island and Stainless-steel kitchen appliances. Off the great room is a covered lanai that extends the living space outdoors. At the rear of the home, you will find the Bedroom 1, with a spacious walk-in closet and Bathroom 1. At the front of the home, the second bedroom and den share the second bathroom.

Key facts

• Open concept design
• Covered lanai
• Large quartz island

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• LARGE QUARTZ ISLAND
• COVERED LANAI
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $320,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $343,834.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $321k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gene Witt Elementary School (math 84% / reading 82%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 689 students, 24% FRL); Carlos E. Haile Middle School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 737 students, 45% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 68% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 631 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 139d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,175 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,834
• List price: $320,990
• Delta: -6.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
411 157th Ct E	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,565 (0%)	2mo	$307,000	$196	95
15839 8th Pl E	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,565 (0%)	1mo	$331,500	$212	82
15815 8th Pl E	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,565 (0%)	2mo	$330,000	$211	82
15835 8th Pl E	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,565 (0%)	2mo	$347,950	$222	82
15821 8th Pl E	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,565 (0%)	2mo	$330,000	$211	82
15820 8th Pl E	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,565 (0%)	0mo	$327,000	$209	82
15732 8th Pl E	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,565 (0%)	1mo	$304,000	$194	82
15808 8th Pl E	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,565 (0%)	1mo	$310,000	$198	81
15736 8th Pl E	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,565 (0%)	2mo	$317,000	$203	81
15728 8th Pl E	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,565 (0%)	2mo	$308,000	$197	81
15816 8th Pl E	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,565 (0%)	2mo	$320,880	$205	80
184 Tierra Verde Way	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+13%)	2mo	$350,000	$198	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.82% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-59,797
• Equity at exit: $69,670

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-84,619
• Equity at exit: $62,320

Cash invested: $96,274 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 21 active · 36 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.6 mo (28%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $395,990 ($231/sqft)
• Median days on market: 146 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -5.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34212

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 631
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,742 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,803
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$430 /mo · $5,158/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,008

Max offer price $313,421

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $27	-5% $-91	+0% $-210	+5% $-329	+10% $-448
Rent	-10% $-427	-5% $-318	+0% $-210	+5% $-102	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-123	base $-210	+0.5pp $-299	+1.0pp $-390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,959
• Closing costs: $10,315
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
626 157th Ct E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,499	$1.60	157d	1	0.15mi
604 160th St E Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,200	$1.56	164d	1	0.34mi
15925 5th Ave E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2036	$4,200	$2.06	7d	1	0.34mi
15808 8th Pl E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,550	$1.63	10d	1	0.36mi
15808 8th Pl E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,550	$1.63	37d	1	0.36mi
611 160th St E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	2036	$2,600	$1.28	164d	1	0.37mi
16105 6th Ave E Unit Na Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2045	$2,850	$1.39	24d	1	0.43mi
16105 6th Ave E Bradenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2045	$2,850	$1.39	0d	1	0.43mi
15843 High Bell Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,595	$1.54	6d	1	0.43mi
15717 High Bell Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1767	$2,600	$1.47	10d	1	0.44mi
16037 7th Ave E Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,945	$1.44	110d	1	0.46mi
16037 7th Ave E Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$3,500	$1.71	164d	1	0.46mi
327 Tierra Verde Way Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,340	$1.38	157d	1	0.52mi
15769 High Bell Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,500	$1.37	155d	1	0.52mi
405 Gris Sky Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,399	$1.45	155d	1	0.58mi
405 Gris Sky Ln Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,399	$1.48	138d	1	0.58mi
15630 Rose Grove Dr Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,399	$1.48	7d	1	0.59mi
153 Tierra Verde Way Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,595	$1.41	144d	1	0.61mi
810 172nd Ct E Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1708	$2,599	$1.52	110d	1	1.14mi
619 172nd Ct E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,450	$1.69	55d	1	1.21mi
923 Hagle Park Rd Unit 925 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	138d	1	1.31mi
811 133rd St E Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2152	$2,475	$1.15	138d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: Plan
• Financial info: List price $320,990
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Utility details not provided
• Home design: Siesta plan (new construction plan)Single-family residence (plan type)
• Construction: New construction plan (Siesta)Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1565 (plan)Address: 314 157th Ct E, Bradenton, FL 34212

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling details not provided
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $320,990 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $320,990 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $320,990 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $320,990 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $320,990 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $320,990 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $320,990 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $320,990 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $320,990 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $320,990 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $320,990 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $320,990 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $320,990 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $320,990 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $320,990 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $320,990 Active 161 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $320,990 Active 160 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $320,990 Active 159 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $320,990 Active 158 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $320,990 Active 157 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $320,990 Active 156 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $320,990 Active 155 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $320,990 Active 154 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $320,990 Active 153 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $320,990 Active 152 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $320,990 Active 151 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $320,990 Active 150 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $320,990 Active 149 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $320,990 Active 148 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $320,990 Active 147 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $320,990 Active 146 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $320,990 Active 145 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $320,990 Active 144 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $320,990 Active 143 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $320,990 Active 142 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $320,990 Active 141 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $320,990 Active 140 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $320,990 Active 139 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $320,990 Active 138 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $320,990 Active 137 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $320,990 Active 136 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $320,990 Active 135 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $320,990 Active 133 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $320,990 Active 132 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $320,990 Active 130 DOM
46. 2026-09-21
    days on market $320,990 Active 129 DOM
47. 2026-09-20
    days on market $320,990 Active 128 DOM
48. 2026-09-19
    days on market $320,990 Active 127 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $320,990 Active 126 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $320,990 Active 125 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,260
• − Property taxes: −$5,158
• − Insurance: −$1,719
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,632
• − Management: −$2,632
• − Depreciation: −$10,002
• Taxable loss: −$8,502
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,041
• After-tax cash flow: $-482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,825–$23,475 screening

This single-family home in Lakewood Ranch, FL, is in good condition with a fresh paint job and well-maintained landscaping. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates to enhance curb appeal and modernize the home.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls and siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with drought-tolerant plants — Reduces maintenance and improves curb appeal. ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities for potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 68/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gene Witt Elementary School A+ FL #65/2,144 Nat'l #766/41,679 Middle Carlos E. Haile Middle School A- FL #84/571 Nat'l #1,110/14,009 High Lakewood Ranch High School C FL #135/667 Nat'l #4,413/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Bradenton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,536
• Household income: $125,486
• Rent vs Own: 15.3% rent · 84.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

---

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 2%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.82%
• Current HPI: 276.7636
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.44%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Inventory type: Plan
• Financial info: List price $320,990
• HOA & community: HOA/community details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Security: Security details not provided
• Utilities: Utility details not provided
• Home design: Siesta plan (new construction plan)Single-family residence (plan type)
• Construction: New construction plan (Siesta)Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1565 (plan)Address: 314 157th Ct E, Bradenton, FL 34212

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Flooring details not provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating and cooling details not provided
• Interior features: Open living area (plan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility details not provided