205 W Bell Rd #246 · Phoenix, AZ 85023

$55,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 41 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition Est $77k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ON LEASED LAND: This home is open and bright with 2 generous size bedrooms. Step inside to beautiful vinyl flooring throughout. Open front room to the formal dining. Kitchen has a nice gas range, all appliances convey. Easy access to laundry just off kitchen. Enjoy the screened in porch. Plenty of room in the back yard to add a nice fence and make it yours. Large storage shed. This home is located in Central Park Village a 55 plus age restricted GOLF community. Features include 9 hole golf, rec center, billiards, on site laundry, work out area. Plus a beautiful pool and spa to enjoy.

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Rec center
• Vinyl flooring

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• REC CENTER
• WORK OUT AREA
• POOL AND SPA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease payment $1,117 monthly; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community pool; Golf; Heated community spa; Community media room; Coin-operated laundry; Biking/walking path; Fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Wood frame construction; Metal roof with reflective coating
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio(s); Storage; Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Laminate counters; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; No interior steps; Pantry; Full bath in master bedroom; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $56k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $863 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $386 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $54,223 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.15%
• DSCR: 3.94
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,088
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16821 N 2nd Dr #282	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,056 (0%)	15mo	$73,500	$70	85
205 W Bell Rd #293	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	1mo	$35,000	$29	76
16622 N 2nd Dr #182	0.11mi	2/2.0	960 (-9%)	7mo	$70,000	$73	74
16618 N 1st Dr #114	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	23mo	$45,000	$39	60
17833 N 1st Pl	0.67mi	2/2.0	992 (-6%)	3mo	$280,000	$282	56
17821 N 1st St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,169 (+11%)	16mo	$250,000	$214	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $41,283
• Equity at exit: $8,335

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $88,897
• Equity at exit: $4,833

Cash invested: $15,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85023

• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,581 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$293
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$70 /mo · $838/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $863

Break-even live

Break-even rent $489

Max offer price $55,900

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,975
• Closing costs: $1,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 W Bell Rd Unit 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,649	$1.68	24d	1	0.15mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 12 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	856	$1,399	$1.63	24d	1	0.15mi
110 W Bell Rd Unit 1 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	739	$1,299	$1.76	24d	1	0.15mi
11 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,705	$1.79	1d	11	0.15mi
16609 N 1st Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	910	$1,350	$1.48	1d	1	0.15mi
110 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	845	$1,499	$1.77	8d	1	0.17mi
220 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,564	$1.45	2d	32	0.18mi
10 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	658	$1,419	$2.16	2d	33	0.24mi
110 E Greenway Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$1,455	$1.68	1d	8	0.26mi
118 E Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1272	$1,950	$1.53	24d	1	0.34mi
17420 N 2nd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,000	$1.52	22d	1	0.40mi
229 E Anderson Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1256	$2,100	$1.67	8d	1	0.43mi
314 E Hartford Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1320	$2,195	$1.66	24d	1	0.47mi
16220 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,708	$1.93	1d	35	0.52mi
17031 N 11th Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,437	$1.86	2d	25	0.60mi
17646 N 6th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,200	$1.71	4d	1	0.66mi
17249 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,518	$1.59	2d	37	0.78mi
1118 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	960	$2,200	$2.29	44d	1	0.82mi
17625 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,369	$1.48	4d	7	0.87mi
18217 N 2nd Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	833	$1,300	$1.56	17d	1	0.91mi
815 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1469	$2,800	$1.91	5d	2	0.99mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	11d	1	1.07mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	18d	1	1.07mi
1100 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,822	$1.85	2d	26	1.07mi
17228 N 16th Dr #4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	20d	1	1.09mi
17617 N 9th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,513	$1.58	2d	35	1.11mi
17017 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	910	$2,500	$2.75	24d	2	1.13mi
1305 W Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,300	$1.64	18d	1	1.18mi
16875 N 12th St Unit 17 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1323	$2,200	$1.66	24d	1	1.22mi
16601 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1242	$1,697	$1.37	2d	21	1.23mi
1130 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	934	$1,336	$1.43	2d	12	1.25mi
17239 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$1,221	$1.52	1d	32	1.26mi
17617 N 17th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1353	$2,100	$1.55	4d	1	1.27mi
1633 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1441	$1,796	$1.25	8d	1	1.29mi
17425 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	776	$1,327	$1.71	2d	40	1.30mi
1126 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1214	$2,450	$2.02	4d	1	1.33mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	8d	1	1.34mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	20d	1	1.34mi
18437 N 8th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,980	$1.46	5d	1	1.36mi
1136 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,950	$1.71	24d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,900 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $55,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $55,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $55,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥110°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,131
• − Property taxes: −$838
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,518
• − Management: −$1,518
• − Depreciation: −$1,626
• Taxable income: $10,062
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,415
• After-tax cash flow: $7,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with the highest ROI updates being painting the interior walls, replacing the kitchen cabinets, and replacing the bathroom carpet.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — Light wear
• Minor bathroom carpet — Light wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace bathroom carpet — Enhances comfort and appearance

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Light wear	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom carpet · Light wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace bathroom carpet — Enhances comfort and appearance ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glendale Union High School District (4285)
• NCES district ID: 0403450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,846
• Composite: 22.81/100
• National rank: #8020
• State rank: #130 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 35,034
• Household income: $77,369
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1539.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 11% Black 7% Asian 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.79%
• Current HPI: 311.8587
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.35%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $55,900 ARMLS