361 Walnut St · Crab Orchard, KY 40419

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Est $120k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

This a small family fixer upper

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#397 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Lincoln County (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #131 of 165 in KY (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Lincoln County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.61%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,952
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
675 Stanford St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,165 (-1%)	10mo	$225,000	$193	65
243 Walnut St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,028 (-13%)	11mo	$105,000	$102	60
162 Main St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,096 (-7%)	16mo	$75,000	$68	44
48 West St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,016 (-14%)	18mo	$58,000	$57	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $32,082
• Equity at exit: $39,462

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $84,213
• Equity at exit: $60,078

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40419

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $378/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $684

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
229 Elm St Crab Orchard, KY	2.0	1.0	980	$1,125	$1.15	43d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $378 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $773 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$396/yr (+$33/mo · 104.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$378
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,080
• − Management: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $2,862
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$687
• After-tax cash flow: $3,494/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln County
• NCES district ID: 2103480
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $35,356
• Composite: 22.68/100
• National rank: #8042
• State rank: #131 of 165 in KY

Livability — Crab Orchard

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #18983

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crab Orchard, KY
• Population (ZIP): 5,128

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,293 people
• By 2030: 22,392 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 20,336 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 18,016 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 12,976 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 8,446 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.2) · D 18.9% · R 80.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.7pp toward R · 2008: -38.5pp · 2024: -61.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.2 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+57.3 2012: R+41.9 2008: R+38.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Current HPI: 240.487
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $89,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $378 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.