625 19th St NW · Rochester, MN 55901

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,174 sqft · Condo public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1990

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just like new 2 bedroom, 2 bath Condo at Val Briar. Spacious living room with patio doors to balcony, large kitchen with all appliances, main floor laundry in unit, Tiled baths. Great view of city from deck, Access to balcony from both bedrooms. Enjoy all amenities of Valhalla, including indoor and outdoor pools.

Key facts

• Underground parking
• 8th floor view
• Laundry room

Tags

• 8TH FLOOR VIEW
• KITCHEN APPLIANCE UPDATES
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED
• ELEVATOR
• UNDERGROUND PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 20 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $139k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.

Recommended offer $136,915 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.55%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-43,094
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-66,313
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55901

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,384 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,054/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$445
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,776

Max offer price $84,276

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-231	-5% $-270	+0% $-310	+5% $-349	+10% $-388
Rent	-10% $-419	-5% $-364	+0% $-310	+5% $-255	+10% $-200
Rate	-1.0pp $-240	-0.5pp $-274	base $-310	+0.5pp $-346	+1.0pp $-382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1931 Viking Dr NW #24 Rochester, MN	1.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.15mi
226 13th St NW Unit 27 Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	705	$1,120	$1.59	21d	1	0.63mi
204 13th St NW Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	705	$1,208	$1.71	14d	4	0.67mi
1460 26th St NW Rochester, MN	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	21d	1	0.80mi
970 11th Ave NW Rochester, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	952	$1,430	$1.50	14d	6	0.82mi
950 11th Ave NW Rochester, MN	2.0–3.0	2.0	1225	$1,245	$1.02	14d	8	0.84mi
1860 20th St NW Unit 1860-6 Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$925	$1.16	21d	1	0.91mi
1260 17th Ave NW Unit 12283 Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,325	$1.66	44d	1	0.94mi
1260 17th Ave NW Unit 12525 Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,395	$1.74	21d	1	0.94mi
1260 17th Ave NW Unit 12043 Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,325	$1.66	14d	1	0.94mi
1258 17th Ave NW Rochester, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	712	$1,395	$1.96	21d	5	0.94mi
1888 20th St NW Unit 1888 Rochester, MN	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	44d	1	0.95mi
538 4th Ave NW Rochester, MN	1.0	1.0	940	$1,450	$1.54	14d	1	1.04mi
28 7th St NE Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	789	$2,750	$3.49	21d	18	1.12mi
417 27th St NE Unit 423-202 Rochester, MN	2.0	2.0	958	$945	$0.99	44d	1	1.12mi
1991 29th Pl NW #206 Rochester, MN	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	1.19mi
400 1st Ave NW Rochester, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	819	$1,510	$1.84	14d	7	1.21mi
401 Broadway Ave N Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	799	$1,977	$2.47	14d	22	1.25mi
1617 4th St NW Rochester, MN	3.0	1.0	790	$1,048	$1.33	14d	1	1.26mi
619 2nd St NW Unit 2 Rochester, MN	3.0	1.5	1435	$1,575	$1.10	14d	1	1.27mi
2409 Highway 52 N Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	650	$1,165	$1.79	14d	10	1.28mi
603 1st St SW Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	512	$1,295	$2.53	14d	3	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $139,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 206-char remark
15. 2026-06-03
    listed $149,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,054 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,054 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,054
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,328
• − Management: −$1,328
• − HOA: −$5,340
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable loss: −$5,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,433
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 58,495
• Household income: $94,607
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1651.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Asian 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.08%
• Current HPI: 253.7999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+49.1% since first listed

46 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $149,000 FSBO.com
• 2015-01-22 Sold (MLS) $91,000 RASM
• 2015-01-22 Sold (MLS) $91,000 LSAR
• 2014-11-21 Listed $99,900 RASM
• 2014-11-21 Listed $99,900 LSAR
• 2014-07-24 Sold (MLS) $89,900 LSAR
• 2014-07-24 Sold (MLS) $89,900 RASM
• 2014-05-30 Sold (MLS) $89,900 LSAR
• 2014-05-28 Listed $89,900 LSAR
• 2014-05-28 Listed $89,900 RASM
• 2014-05-28 Sold (MLS) $94,900 LSAR
• 2014-01-22 Listed $94,900 LSAR
• 2013-11-18 Listed $89,900 LSAR
• 2011-08-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-25 Listed $86,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-23 Sold (MLS) $64,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-24 Listed $67,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-24 Sold (MLS) $111,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-30 Listed $120,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-18 Sold (MLS) $85,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-10 Listed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-09-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-19 Listed $89,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-20 Sold (MLS) $84,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-17 Listed $89,800 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-16 Listed $84,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-09 Listed $94,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-03 Listed $89,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-26 Listed $89,800 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-13 Sold (MLS) $105,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-07-10 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-13 Listed $107,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-31 Sold (MLS) $95,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-01 Sold (MLS) $105,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-12 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-04 Listed $110,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-08-04 Listed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,054 · +18.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.