7603 Green Bulrush Way · Katy, TX 77493

$315,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,870 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 4,125 sqft lot 2-car garage $168/sqft · 18% below area Est $374k · 16% under $107/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! Nestled in the highly sought-after Katy ISD, this delightful 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home boasts a 2-car garage, a covered patio, and a balcony, all situated on a generous lot. Sunlight pours through large windows, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The kitchen is a chef’s dream, featuring 42" cabinets, quartz countertops, a central island, and stainless steel appliances, including an oven/range, microwave, and dishwasher. Experience modern living in the vibrant, master-planned community of Elyson, where amenities abound.

Key facts

• Central island
• Quartz countertops
• Balcony

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• BALCONY
• 42 CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (34.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 3403 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 12757% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,733 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.87%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,087
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -15.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7655 Meadow Mouse Ln	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,817 (-3%)	4mo	$343,265	$189	86
7611 Meadow Mouse Ln	0.10mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (+2%)	4mo	$339,690	$178	83
24019 Breezy Bank Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,714 (-8%)	0mo	$327,440	$191	79
7635 Meadow Mouse Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,714 (-8%)	3mo	$322,565	$188	76
7643 Swooping Swallow Ln	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+9%)	0mo	$353,815	$173	71
7631 Meadow Mouse Ln	0.12mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+9%)	4mo	$346,390	$169	70
7211 Mayapple Grove Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,997 (+7%)	2mo	$385,000	$193	65
23923 Sage Row Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0	2,060 (+10%)	0mo	$379,000	$184	62
7130 Sparrow Valley Trl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,975 (+6%)	2mo	$350,000	$177	60
7202 Cordgrass Prairie Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	2,068 (+11%)	3mo	$378,000	$183	57
7438 Fraser Peak Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,049 (+10%)	4mo	$424,900	$207	57
7322 Cordgrass Prairie Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	2,147 (+15%)	3mo	$383,000	$178	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -50.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-126,871
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.57×
• Total profit: $-226,335
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 19.8 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $363,378 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 86 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 3403
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,652 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$857 /mo · $10,287/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$107
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-1,079

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,018

Max offer price $205,733

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-900	-5% $-990	+0% $-1,079	+5% $-1,168	+10% $-1,257
Rent	-10% $-1,288	-5% $-1,184	+0% $-1,079	+5% $-974	+10% $-869
Rate	-1.0pp $-920	-0.5pp $-999	base $-1,079	+0.5pp $-1,160	+1.0pp $-1,243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24114 Blooming Daisy Cir Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,300	$2.20	93d	1	0.25mi
7706 Cattail Shallows Ln Katy, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$1,800	$0.91	19d	1	0.28mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner lot in a cul-de-sac within a subdivisionConcrete road surfaceCommunity pool, curbs, and gutters
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Crest ManagementAssociation amenities include dog park, playground, and trailsAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security systemSmoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFaces north
• Construction: Built in 2021Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationBuilder: Chesmar
• Exterior features: BalconyCovered patioPatioDeckPrivate yardFence (back yard)Sprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenDishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second floor) — 13 x 18Bedroom (Second floor) — 13 x 13Bedroom (Second floor) — 11 x 12Bonus room (Second floor) — 9.5 x 15
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas, zoned)Central air conditioning (Electric, zoned)
• Interior features: Breakfast barHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPrimary bedroom with bathPantryTub/showerWindow treatmentsCeiling fan(s)Programmable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation for improved indoor air qualityENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-07-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-07-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-07-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-07-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-07-11
   days on market $315,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-07-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-07-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-07-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-07-06
    days on market $315,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-07-06
    days on market $315,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-07-05
    days on market $315,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-07-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-07-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-07-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-06-30
    days on market $315,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-06-29
    days on market $315,000 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-06-28
    days on market $315,000 Active 44 DOM
19. 2026-06-27
    days on market $315,000 Active 43 DOM
20. 2026-06-26
    days on market $315,000 Active 42 DOM
21. 2026-06-24
    days on market $315,000 Active 40 DOM
22. 2026-06-22
    days on market $315,000 Active 38 DOM
23. 2026-06-21
    days on market $315,000 Active 37 DOM
24. 2026-06-18
    days on market $315,000 Active 34 DOM
25. 2026-06-17
    days on market $315,000 Active 33 DOM
26. 2026-06-16
    days on market $315,000 Active 32 DOM
27. 2026-06-15
    days on market $315,000 Active 31 DOM
28. 2026-06-13
    days on market $315,000 Active 29 DOM
29. 2026-06-09
    days on market $315,000 Active 25 DOM
30. 2026-06-08
    days on market $315,000 Active 24 DOM
31. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 23 DOM
32. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,000 Active 20 DOM
33. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 19 DOM
34. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 18 DOM
35. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 17 DOM
36. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 16 DOM
37. 2026-05-15
    listed $315,000 Active 842-char remark
38. 2026-05-15
    historical
39. 2026-05-01
    price $322,000
40. 2026-03-19
    listed $335,000 Active
41. 2025-06-24
    historical
42. 2025-06-04
    listed $360,000 Active
43. 2025-06-04
    historical
44. 2025-04-18
    price $360,000
45. 2025-04-02
    listed $370,000 Active
46. 2022-09-21
    soldstatus Sold
47. 2022-08-14
    status Pending
48. 2022-08-01
    price $357,990
49. 2022-07-16
    price $373,740
50. 2022-07-16
    status Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,287 · $857/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,287 · $857/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$10,287
• − Insurance: −$6,694
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,546
• − Management: −$2,546
• − HOA: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$18,340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,402
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in Katy ISD is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal updates needed to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Robert King El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Katy J H C TX #318/1,662 Nat'l #3,192/14,009 High Katy H S B TX #150/1,632 Nat'l #2,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Corner lot in a cul-de-sac within a subdivisionConcrete road surfaceCommunity pool, curbs, and gutters
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Crest ManagementAssociation amenities include dog park, playground, and trailsAnnual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security systemSmoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyFaces north
• Construction: Built in 2021Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationBuilder: Chesmar
• Exterior features: BalconyCovered patioPatioDeckPrivate yardFence (back yard)Sprinkler/irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection ovenDishwasherDisposalGas rangeMicrowaveOven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second floor) — 13 x 18Bedroom (Second floor) — 13 x 13Bedroom (Second floor) — 11 x 12Bonus room (Second floor) — 9.5 x 15
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas, zoned)Central air conditioning (Electric, zoned)
• Interior features: Breakfast barHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPrimary bedroom with bathPantryTub/showerWindow treatmentsCeiling fan(s)Programmable thermostatLow emissivity windowsVentilation for improved indoor air qualityENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed for Rent $2,450 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $322,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Listed $370,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-21 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-08-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-01 Price Changed $357,990 HARMLS
• 2022-07-16 Price Changed $373,740 HARMLS
• 2022-07-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-02-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-02-01 Listed $363,740 HARMLS

Property tax history

+102.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,287 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.