2751 Caledonia St · Newfane, NY 14108

$135,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1947 0.38 ac lot Est $195k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the heart of the Village of Newfane, this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-full-bath home offers flexible living space with a possible 5th bedroom, home office, or hobby room. Conveniently situated near local shops, dining, and everyday amenities. The first floor features a large living room, an eat-in kitchen, a full bath, a first-floor bedroom, and a convenient laundry area. An enclosed three-season room overlooks the backyard, providing additional space to relax and enjoy the outdoors. Upstairs, you'll find three additional bedrooms, a second full bath, and a large walk-in closet/attic storage area connected to one of the bedrooms. Improvements include a metal roof (approximately 2010),

Key facts

• Plumbing updates
• Large walk in closet
• 0.38 acre lot

Tags

• ENCLOSED THREE SEASON ROOM
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET
• PLUMBING UPDATES
• ELECTRICAL PANEL UPDATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Poured foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) and storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level; Total rooms include bedroom(s) and convertible bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Home office; Convertible bedroom; Accessible bedroom; Low threshold shower; Accessible entrance
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-84/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#640 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Newfane Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #257 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newfane Elementary School (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 450 students, 46% FRL); Newfane Middle School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #448 of 729 statewide, top 63%, 343 students, 50% FRL); Newfane Senior High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 435 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 30% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $129,533 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6160 Karen Ave	0.43mi	4/1.5	1,404 (+4%)	1mo	$277,000	$197	71
6134 East Ave	0.15mi	4/1.0	1,256 (-6%)	12mo	$160,000	$127	70
6015 Hillcrest Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,380 (+3%)	3mo	$220,000	$159	68
6130 Sharon Ave	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	7mo	$207,000	$137	58
2691 Van Horn Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,421 (+6%)	16mo	$207,000	$146	54
2731 West Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	7mo	$230,000	$192	54
2786 Maple Ave	0.19mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,544 (+15%)	15mo	$135,000	$87	47
6173 Ketchum Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (+8%)	23mo	$210,000	$145	42
2694 Main St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,157 (-14%)	12mo	$143,000	$124	39
5988 Ide Rd	0.62mi	4/1.0	1,472 (+10%)	20mo	$106,000	$72	37
2605 Main St	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,450 (+8%)	22mo	$180,000	$124	34
2973 Rosemarie Cir	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (+4%)	22mo	$330,000	$236	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-22,241
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-19,616
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14108

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,295 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,193/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,304

Max offer price $133,768

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $31	+0% $-7	+5% $-45	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-58	+0% $-7	+5% $44	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $61	-0.5pp $27	base $-7	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $135,000 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-05
    listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,193 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,193 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$3,193
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,244
• − Management: −$1,244
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$2,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$552
• After-tax cash flow: $468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newfane Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620760
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,029
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1911
• State rank: #257 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newfane

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #640
• US rank: #11907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newfane, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,301

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.96%
• Current HPI: 272.2811
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $135,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,193 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.