Is 4451 Wisenbaker Way Way in Bryan, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.0% cap rate and $-545/mo modeled cash flow at a $289,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 4451 Wisenbaker Way Way?

The modeled cap rate is 4.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,902/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 29.22

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.1/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.8/5.0
Schools +3.1/10.0
Rent growth +2.7/5.0
1% rule +1.5/10.0
DSCR +0.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$289,900

4451 Wisenbaker Way Way · Bryan, TX 77801

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,702 sqft lot 2-car garage $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Meet the Sutherland! Featuring a thoughtfully designed single-story layout, the Sutherland offers plenty of private and common living space. Toward the front of the home, two bedrooms share a full hall bath. At the heart of the home, an inviting kitchen—featuring a center island and corner pantry—overlooks an open-concept area with a spacious great room and elegant dining area. A lavish owner's suite includes a large walk-in closet and a private bath. Completing the home, a delightful covered patio provides a great place to relax in the fresh outdoor air.

Key facts

Spacious great room
Corner pantry
Elegant dining area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-545 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (26.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (34.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $190k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, employment D+.
Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Alton Bowen El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 343 students, 65% FRL); Arthur L Davila Middle (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,044 students, 85% FRL); Travis B Bryan H S (math 22% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,419 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 162 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $1,902/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,193 (34.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.65% ✗
Cap rate: 4.04%
Cash-on-cash: -8.03%
DSCR: 0.64
GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $290,736
List price: $289,900
Delta: -0.29%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4410 Albritton Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,508 (0%)	3mo	$292,900	$194	92
10613 Knox Landing Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+4%)	1mo	$283,770	$180	85
10621 Knox Landing Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-6%)	0mo	$275,420	$195	84
10630 Knox Landing Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+6%)	1mo	$258,520	$162	83
10615 Knox Landing Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-6%)	1mo	$268,420	$190	82
10632 Knox Landing Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+6%)	3mo	$275,920	$173	81
10604 Knox Landing Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-6%)	2mo	$268,420	$190	80
10631 Knox Landing Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+10%)	2mo	$283,580	$170	71
10607 Knox Landing Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+10%)	1mo	$295,030	$177	70
10634 Knox Landing Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+10%)	1mo	$283,330	$170	70
10649 Knox Landing Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+10%)	4mo	$288,380	$173	66
10652 Knox Landing Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+10%)	4mo	$288,030	$173	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -32.7%
Equity multiple: -0.05×
Total profit: $-85,522
Equity at exit: $43,350

10-year hold

IRR: -52.6%
Equity multiple: -0.64×
Total profit: $-133,793
Equity at exit: $25,138

Cash invested: $81,406 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 90 active · 27 under contract
Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $289,945 ($180/sqft)
Median days on market: 56 d
This list price: 48% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +7.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77801

Home prices YoY: -16.8%
Rents YoY: 1.0%
Active inventory: 162
Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,902 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,525
Tax est. 1.5%: −$363 /mo · $4,361/yr
Insurance: −$121
HOA: −$38
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
Net cashflow: $-545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,591

Max offer price $211,919

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-344	-5% $-444	+0% $-545	+5% $-645	+10% $-746
Rent	-10% $-695	-5% $-620	+0% $-545	+5% $-470	+10% $-394
Rate	-1.0pp $-398	-0.5pp $-471	base $-545	+0.5pp $-620	+1.0pp $-697

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $72,684
Closing costs: $8,722
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10634 Knox Landing Dr College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,000	$1.20	36d	1	0.16mi
10652 Knox Landing Dr College Station, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,000	$1.20	19d	1	0.21mi
4777 Native Tree Ln Bryan, TX	3.0	2.5	1652	$2,200	$1.33	51d	1	0.43mi
4760 Holm Oak Rd College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,980	$1.37	51d	1	0.48mi
10633 Burgundy Berry Way College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,900	$1.41	51d	1	0.50mi
10618 Burgundy Berry Way College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,150	$1.42	41d	1	0.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: HOA managed by Equity Property MgnmtAnnual HOA fee of $450

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding exteriorComposition roof
Exterior features: Subdivision setting

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowave
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorTwo additional bedrooms on the first floor (three total bedrooms)
Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: Kitchen islandKitchen/family room comboMain level primary bedroomPantryQuartz countertopsSeparate showerTub with showerWalk-in closets

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $289,900 Active 158 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $289,900 Active 157 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $289,900 Active 156 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $289,900 Active 155 DOM
2026-11-04

days on market $289,900 Active 154 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $289,900 Active 152 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $289,900 Active 151 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $289,900 Active 150 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $289,900 Active 149 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $289,900 Active 148 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $289,900 Active 147 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $289,900 Active 146 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $289,900 Active 145 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $289,900 Active 144 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $289,900 Active 143 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $289,900 Active 142 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $289,900 Active 141 DOM
2026-10-21

pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $289,900 Active 140 DOM
2026-09-28

statusdays on market $274,900 Pending 4 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $274,900 Active 3 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $274,900 Active 2 DOM
2026-09-24

days on marketlisting id $274,900 Active 1 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $274,900 Active 113 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $274,900 Active 112 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $274,900 Active 111 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $274,900 Active 110 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $274,900 Active 109 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $274,900 Active 107 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $274,900 Active 106 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $274,900 Active 105 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $274,900 Active 104 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $274,900 Active 103 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $274,900 Active 102 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $274,900 Active 101 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on market $274,900 Active 100 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $279,900 Active 94 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $279,900 Active 93 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $279,900 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $279,900 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $279,900 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $279,900 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $279,900 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $279,900 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $279,900 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $279,900 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $279,900 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $279,900 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $279,900 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $279,900 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $279,900 Active 78 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $22,823
− Mortgage interest: −$16,286
− Property taxes: −$4,361
− Insurance: −$1,454
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
− Management: −$1,826
− HOA: −$456
− Depreciation: −$8,458
Taxable loss: −$11,843

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,842
After-tax cash flow: $-3,694/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious layout with a kitchen, bathrooms, and covered patio, making it an ideal move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑
Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds modern convenience, enhancing appeal to buyers/renters. ↑
Both Add smart lighting system — Enhances home's ambiance and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alton Bowen El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Arthur L Davila Middle F TX #911/1,662 Nat'l #7,937/14,009 High Travis B Bryan H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Bryan ISD
NCES district ID: 4811790
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income: $41,895
Composite: 26.26/100
National rank: #7253
State rank: #608 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Bryan

Score: 76/100
State rank: #99
US rank: #3341

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Bryan, TX
County: Brazos County · 267,942 people
City population: 101,772
Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
Population (ZIP): 15,461
Household income: $39,846
Rent vs Own: 80.4% rent · 19.6% own
Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 267,942 people
By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 34% Black 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -54.39%
Current HPI: 269.7483
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.99%
Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-5.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-09-24 Listed $274,900 HARMLS
2026-09-08 Price Changed $274,900 HARMLS
2026-08-13 Price Changed $279,900 HARMLS
2026-06-03 Listed $289,900 BCSRMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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