8759 Tubelo Mill Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,905 sqft · Townhouse public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2019 4,429 sqft lot Est $286k · at est. $220/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a beautiful townhome in the highly desirable Sienna Plantation. This one is one of a kind, it's on a large lot with an easement behind it allowing for lots of privacy. With white 42" cabinets in kitchen level 4 quarts in all baths , SS appliances, and pendant lights ovr the large kitchen island. It has vinyl wood plank in all the downstairs. Home is available for immediate move-in. For more information, contact Chesmar Homes in Sienna.

Key facts

• $220 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $925 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $271k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.7% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,875 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.42%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,750
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2546 Bordelon Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,870 (-2%)	4mo	$255,000	$136	91
8758 Laurel Crest Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,900 (-0%)	2mo	$275,000	$145	91
2531 Terrace Point Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,903 (-0%)	6mo	$275,000	$145	88
2527 Bordelon Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,820 (-4%)	0mo	$267,500	$147	87
2522 Terrace Point Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,953 (+2%)	3mo	$280,000	$143	87
2546 Manor Valley Ct	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,958 (+3%)	5mo	$344,900	$176	86
2558 Terrace Point Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,903 (-0%)	23mo	$300,000	$158	76
2526 Terrace Point Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,890 (-1%)	24mo	$289,000	$153	72
2571 Terrace Point Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,973 (+4%)	24mo	$295,000	$150	68
2506 Bordelon Ln	0.08mi	3/3.0	2,073 (+9%)	12mo	$299,900	$145	68
2502 Bordelon Ln	0.08mi	3/3.0	2,013 (+6%)	23mo	$317,500	$158	63
2523 Terrace Point Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,737 (-9%)	19mo	$279,900	$161	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $17,840
• Equity at exit: $57,675

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $58,537
• Equity at exit: $53,421

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$704 /mo · $8,446/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$220
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$905
• Net cashflow: $925

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,140

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,081	-5% $1,003	+0% $925	+5% $848	+10% $770
Rent	-10% $585	-5% $755	+0% $925	+5% $1,096	+10% $1,266
Rate	-1.0pp $1,064	-0.5pp $995	base $925	+0.5pp $854	+1.0pp $782

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	0d	1	0.50mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	23d	1	0.74mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $220 · $2,640/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $275,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    historical $275,000
16. 2020-05-29
    soldstatus Sold 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    This is a beautiful townhome in the highly desirable Sienna Plantation. This one is one of a kind, it's on a large lot with an easement behind it allowing for lots of privacy. With white 42" cabinets in kitchen level 4 quarts in all baths , SS appliances, and pendant lights ovr the large kitchen island. It has vinyl wood plank in all the downstairs. Home is available for immediate move-in. For more information, contact Chesmar Homes in Sienna.

17. 2020-04-27
    status Pending 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    This is a beautiful townhome in the highly desirable Sienna Plantation. This one is one of a kind, it's on a large lot with an easement behind it allowing for lots of privacy. With white 42" cabinets in kitchen level 4 quarts in all baths , SS appliances, and pendant lights ovr the large kitchen island. It has vinyl wood plank in all the downstairs. Home is available for immediate move-in. For more information, contact Chesmar Homes in Sienna.

18. 2020-04-17
    listed $247,415 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    This is a beautiful townhome in the highly desirable Sienna Plantation. This one is one of a kind, it's on a large lot with an easement behind it allowing for lots of privacy. With white 42" cabinets in kitchen level 4 quarts in all baths , SS appliances, and pendant lights ovr the large kitchen island. It has vinyl wood plank in all the downstairs. Home is available for immediate move-in. For more information, contact Chesmar Homes in Sienna.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,446 · $704/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,446 · $704/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$8,446
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,139
• − Management: −$4,139
• − HOA: −$2,640
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable income: $7,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,823
• After-tax cash flow: $9,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Coming Soon $275,000 HARMLS
• 2020-05-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-04-17 Listed $247,415 HARMLS

Property tax history

+98.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,446 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.