3012 Fredericksburg Dr · Montgomery, AL 36116

$110,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1980 7,840 sqft lot Est $82k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LIVING ROOM, EAT IN KITCHEN, LAUNDRY ROOM, THREE BEDROOMS AND TWO FULL BATHS. PROPERTY SOLD AS IS. CONDITION AND TYPE OF SYSTEMS UNKNOWN.

Key facts

• One story living
• Low maintenance yard
• Single level design

Tags

• ONE STORY LIVING
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN AND FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SINGLE LEVEL DESIGN
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $111k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $231 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $111k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 6.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#138 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Montgomery County (urban): math 9% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 129 in AL (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 460 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $767 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 7689% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $77k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,679 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.91%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $82,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3012 Fredericksburg Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,080 (0%)	1mo	$107,000	$99	99
3021 Dobbs Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,153 (+7%)	2mo	$106,900	$93	76
3219 Montwood Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,159 (+7%)	4mo	$75,000	$65	74
3135 Dobbs Dr	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,067 (-1%)	4mo	$107,000	$100	73
2840 Shenandoah Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-4%)	12mo	$65,000	$63	72
4025 Edge Hill Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,154 (+7%)	1mo	$83,000	$72	67
2961 Moorcroft Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-4%)	3mo	$80,000	$77	64
3173 Montwood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,198 (+11%)	11mo	$81,000	$68	59
2744 Country Brook Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,151 (+7%)	5mo	$130,000	$113	58
4651 Virginia Loop Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-5%)	15mo	$77,500	$76	54
2629 Shadowood Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+6%)	6mo	$57,000	$50	51
3161 Alison Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+13%)	18mo	$48,000	$39	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-124
• Equity at exit: $16,550

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $32,519
• Equity at exit: $9,597

Cash invested: $31,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36116

• Home prices YoY: -9.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,165 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$582
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $734/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $873

Max offer price $110,999

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $294	-5% $262	+0% $231	+5% $199	+10% $168
Rent	-10% $139	-5% $185	+0% $231	+5% $277	+10% $323
Rate	-1.0pp $287	-0.5pp $259	base $231	+0.5pp $202	+1.0pp $173

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,750
• Closing costs: $3,330
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4604 Virginia Loop Rd Montgomery, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$895	$1.10	44d	1	0.27mi
3110 Virginia Downs Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	1068	$800	$0.75	44d	1	0.28mi
3231 Virginia Pines Ln Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	1068	$800	$0.75	44d	1	0.29mi
3240 Virginia Pines Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1215	$900	$0.74	44d	1	0.32mi
3220 Virginia Downs Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1215	$900	$0.74	44d	1	0.35mi
4611 Virginia Loop Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	1029	$1,195	$1.16	22d	1	0.38mi
3248 Meadow Walk Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,200	$1.08	44d	1	0.41mi
4025 Edge Hill Ln Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,350	$1.17	14d	1	0.44mi
2699 Whispering Pine Dr Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	14d	1	0.47mi
4220 Strathmore Dr Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$1,099	$1.18	44d	1	0.63mi
3855 Woodley Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,450	$1.00	44d	1	0.67mi
2619 Brantford Pl Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,200	$0.91	44d	1	1.08mi
5800 Eagle Cir Montgomery, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,051	$1.05	44d	1	1.13mi
3580 McGehee Pl Dr S Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,205	$1.00	44d	1	1.16mi
5917 Cherry Hill Rd Montgomery, AL	4.0	2.0	1161	$1,450	$1.25	14d	1	1.20mi
3388 McGehee Rd Unit B Montgomery, AL	2.0	2.0	900	$545	$0.61	22d	1	1.20mi
3638 Castle Ridge Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1100	$800	$0.73	14d	1	1.26mi
3380 McGehee Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1000	$650	$0.65	14d	1	1.27mi
6028 Oakleigh Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1105	$850	$0.77	44d	1	1.33mi
6061 Briarhurst Dr Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,075	$0.96	44d	1	1.36mi
5931 Singleton St Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.5	1302	$695	$0.53	44d	1	1.39mi
2401 Overhill Rd Montgomery, AL	3.0	1.0	999	$700	$0.70	22d	1	1.41mi
2651 Clement Curv Montgomery, AL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,550	$1.11	22d	1	1.43mi
4590 Troy Hwy Montgomery, AL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1330	$1,299	$0.98	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-17
   historical $1,425
2. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-26
   listed $1,425
4. 2026-03-11
   historical Contingent
5. 2026-02-06
   price $110,999
6. 2026-01-19
   price $112,999
7. 2026-01-15
   status Active
8. 2026-01-07
   status Pending
9. 2025-12-04
   historical Contingent
10. 2025-11-24
    listed $109,999 Active
11. 2024-06-05
    historical $995
12. 2024-06-01
    listed $995
13. 2022-03-09
    price $975
14. 2021-12-03
    soldstatus $76,900
15. 2021-12-02
    soldstatus $76,900 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    LIVING ROOM, EAT IN KITCHEN, LAUNDRY ROOM, THREE BEDROOMS AND TWO FULL BATHS. PROPERTY SOLD AS IS. CONDITION AND TYPE OF SYSTEMS UNKNOWN.

16. 2021-10-20
    listed $71,900 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    LIVING ROOM, EAT IN KITCHEN, LAUNDRY ROOM, THREE BEDROOMS AND TWO FULL BATHS. PROPERTY SOLD AS IS. CONDITION AND TYPE OF SYSTEMS UNKNOWN.

17. 2013-12-06
    soldstatus $69,200
18. 2013-10-29
    soldstatus $49,500
19. 2013-06-20
    soldstatus $18,600 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    SLAB FOUNDATION. MASONITE SIDING. DRIVEWAY. PARTIAL FENCE. LIVING ROOM, EAT IN KITCHEN, LAUNDRY ROOM, THREE BEDROOMS AND TWO FULL BATHS. PROPERTY SOLD AS IS. EARNEST MONEY IS 2% OF CONTRACTED PRICE OR 1000, WHICHEVER IS GREATER. ALL OFFER MUST INCLUDE PRE APPROVAL LETTER OR PROOF OF FUNDS LETTER. CALL AGENT FOR ADDENDUMS. CONDITION AND TYPE OF SYSTEMS UNKNOWN.

20. 2013-02-13
    listed $24,890 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    SLAB FOUNDATION. MASONITE SIDING. DRIVEWAY. PARTIAL FENCE. LIVING ROOM, EAT IN KITCHEN, LAUNDRY ROOM, THREE BEDROOMS AND TWO FULL BATHS. PROPERTY SOLD AS IS. EARNEST MONEY IS 2% OF CONTRACTED PRICE OR 1000, WHICHEVER IS GREATER. ALL OFFER MUST INCLUDE PRE APPROVAL LETTER OR PROOF OF FUNDS LETTER. CALL AGENT FOR ADDENDUMS. CONDITION AND TYPE OF SYSTEMS UNKNOWN.

21. 2004-10-22
    soldstatus $72,500
22. 2004-05-26
    listed $73,500
23. 2002-09-12
    listed $61,000
24. 1998-09-21
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $734 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $734 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,218
• − Property taxes: −$734
• − Insurance: −$555
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,118
• − Management: −$1,118
• − Depreciation: −$3,229
• Taxable income: $1,008
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$242
• After-tax cash flow: $2,529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County
• NCES district ID: 0102430
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,902
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9093
• State rank: #106 of 129 in AL

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #13416

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montgomery, AL
• County: Montgomery County · 190,016 people
• City population: 175,913
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• Population (ZIP): 45,250
• Household income: $55,160
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2786.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 224,008 people
• By 2030: 221,460 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 214,179 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 204,912 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 177,821 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 145,134 · -35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 80% White 12% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+30.7) · D 64.8% · R 34.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.2pp · 2024: 30.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+30.7 2020: D+31.5 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+24.3 2008: D+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.31%
• Current HPI: 151.8598
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.65%
• Metro: Montgomery, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-97.6% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Rental Removed $1,425 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-04-02 Pending — MAAR
• 2026-03-26 Listed for Rent $1,425 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-11 Contingent — MAAR
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $110,999 MAAR
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $112,999 MAAR
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — MAAR
• 2026-01-07 Pending — MAAR
• 2025-12-04 Contingent — MAAR
• 2025-11-24 Listed $109,999 MAAR
• 2024-06-05 Rental Removed $995 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-01 Listed for Rent $995 APPFOLIO
• 2022-03-09 Price Changed $975 RENT.
• 2021-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $76,900 Public Records
• 2021-12-02 Sold (MLS) $76,900 MAAR
• 2021-10-20 Listed $71,900 MAAR
• 2013-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $69,200 Public Records
• 2013-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 2013-06-20 Sold (MLS) $18,600 MAAR
• 2013-02-13 Listed $24,890 MAAR
• 2004-10-22 Sold (MLS) $72,500 MAAR
• 2004-05-26 Listed $73,500 MAAR
• 2002-09-12 Listed $61,000 MAAR
• 1998-09-21 Listed $59,900 MAAR

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $734 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.