25157 Bells Canyon Dr · Houston, TX 77365

$249,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,719 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2021 6,303 sqft lot Est $278k · 10% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Darrel II floorplan is a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom home THAT IS LOCATED AT THE VERY END OF THE CUL-DE-SAC that features a roaring ceilings, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout 1st floor (excludes master suite), 42 inch elegant espresso cabinets, gameroom , room for additional fridge in utility room. Separate tub/shower with dual sinks in master bathroom. Master bedroom features a bay window. Home includes a covered patio. This plan sits in the brand new Brooklyn Trails community located 1 mile north of Northpark and 494 nestled next to Kingwood on the very end of a beautiful new street.

Key facts

• 6,303 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Member of New Caney association; Annual association fee of $475

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2021; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor; Second-floor bedroom (11x10); Second-floor bedroom (10x10); Second-floor bedroom (10x10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Pantry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-451 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (31.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodridge Forest Middle (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,288 students, 64% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 955 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,354 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.59%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,478
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25615 Brooklyn Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,907 (+11%)	3mo	$259,500	$136	72
25126 Bells Canyon Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,638 (-5%)	18mo	$237,000	$145	70
25404 Grotto Falls Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,914 (+11%)	12mo	$209,000	$109	64
25249 Sandy Deer Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,791 (+4%)	5mo	$305,000	$170	48
25219 Sandy Deer Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,799 (+5%)	10mo	$290,000	$161	46
25218 Sandy Deer Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (-3%)	14mo	$284,900	$171	44
25234 Sandy Deer Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,777 (+3%)	13mo	$290,000	$163	43
22318 Log Orchard Ln	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,941 (+13%)	18mo	$315,000	$162	31
22293 Rustling Cone Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,945 (+13%)	18mo	$324,990	$167	28
22303 Log Orchard Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (+13%)	18mo	$295,000	$152	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-71,878
• Equity at exit: $37,274

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.57×
• Total profit: $-110,152
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $69,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 955
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,230 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$691 /mo · $8,294/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,801

Max offer price $170,354

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-309	-5% $-380	+0% $-451	+5% $-522	+10% $-592
Rent	-10% $-627	-5% $-539	+0% $-451	+5% $-363	+10% $-275
Rate	-1.0pp $-325	-0.5pp $-387	base $-451	+0.5pp $-516	+1.0pp $-581

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,498
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21377 W Wallis Dr Unit A Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,800	$1.42	0d	1	0.86mi
21371 W Wallis Dr Unit B Porter, TX	3.0	2.5	1387	$1,900	$1.37	18d	1	0.86mi
21371 W Wallis Dr Porter, TX	3.0	3.0	1387	$1,900	$1.37	14d	1	0.86mi
25710 Texas 494 Loop Unit 3112 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$2,400	$1.42	6d	1	0.88mi
25710 Texas 494 Loop Unit 3174 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$2,389	$1.41	12d	1	0.88mi
25710 Texas 494 Loop Unit 25743 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$2,400	$1.42	45d	1	0.97mi
21255 W Memorial Dr Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,599	$1.52	26d	1	1.07mi
23227 Albert Dr Porter, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	45d	1	1.18mi
206 Northpines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,913	$1.35	45d	1	1.43mi
206 Northpines Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,913	$1.35	22d	1	1.43mi
21554 Kings Bend Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1834	$1,806	$0.98	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 575-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   listed $249,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,294 · $691/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,294 · $691/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,003
• − Property taxes: −$8,294
• − Insurance: −$2,047
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,141
• − Management: −$2,141
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$7,272
• Taxable loss: −$9,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,308
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-21 Listed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2021-11-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-03-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-02-13 Price Changed $218,794 HARMLS
• 2021-02-04 Price Changed $215,794 HARMLS
• 2021-01-25 Listed $213,794 HARMLS

Property tax history

+69.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,294 · -5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.