20211 Big Timber Ct · Atascocita, TX 77346

$204,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,721 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1981 0.30 ac lot $119/sqft · 7% below area Est $221k · 7% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This stunning multi-level home offers ample space with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfect for everyone or anyone looking for room to grow. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, creating the ideal space for relaxing and entertaining. Enjoy casual meals in the bright breakfast area, while the double vanity in the primary bathroom adds a touch of luxury. The spacious backyard is fully fenced with wood for added privacy, offering plenty of room for outdoor activities. With a 2-car garage and a thoughtful layout, this home blends comfort, convenience, and style—don't miss the opportunity to make it yours! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Spacious backyard
• Fully fenced

Tags

• MULTI-LEVEL HOME
• COZY FIREPLACE
• BRIGHT BREAKFAST AREA
• DOUBLE VANITY
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• FULLY FENCED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $204k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 681 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $204k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.67%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,535
• List price: $204,000
• Delta: -7.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20211 Big Timber Ct	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,721 (0%)	0mo	$204,000	$119	98
20018 Big Timber Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (+2%)	3mo	$219,800	$125	82
5619 Fawn Trail Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,664 (-3%)	1mo	$214,990	$129	72
19914 Big Timber Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (-6%)	5mo	$198,000	$123	68
20207 Misty Pines Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,906 (+11%)	2mo	$199,900	$105	68
20022 River Brook Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,904 (+11%)	4mo	$314,995	$165	66
5514 Fawn Trail Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,863 (+8%)	3mo	$250,000	$134	65
5534 Deer Timbers Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,570 (-9%)	1mo	$235,000	$150	59
20843 Fawn Timber Trl	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+7%)	3mo	$305,000	$166	59
20035 Dawn Mist Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,534 (-11%)	0mo	$177,000	$115	59
20113 Dawn Mist Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,951 (+13%)	5mo	$249,800	$128	56
5415 Fawn Trail Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,467 (-15%)	2mo	$175,000	$119	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-12,751
• Equity at exit: $49,692

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,442
• Equity at exit: $52,564

Cash invested: $57,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 681
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,111 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,070
• Tax from tax record: −$363 /mo · $4,356/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,950

Max offer price $204,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $242	-5% $185	+0% $127	+5% $69	+10% $11
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $43	+0% $127	+5% $210	+10% $294
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $179	base $127	+0.5pp $74	+1.0pp $20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,000
• Closing costs: $6,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	45d	1	0.24mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	0d	1	0.24mi
19902 Burle Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,699	$1.11	45d	1	0.37mi
5419 Deer Timbers Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,705	$1.30	23d	1	0.48mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	23d	1	0.89mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	0d	14	0.94mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	45d	1	0.99mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	45d	1	1.16mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	6d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   This stunning multi-level home offers ample space with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfect for everyone or anyone looking for room to grow. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, creating the ideal space for relaxing and entertaining. Enjoy casual meals in the bright breakfast area, while the double vanity in the primary bathroom adds a touch of luxury. The spacious backyard is fully fenced with wood for added privacy, offering plenty of room for outdoor activities. With a 2-car garage and a thoughtful layout, this home blends comfort, convenience, and style—don't miss the opportunity to make it yours! Schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   This stunning multi-level home offers ample space with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfect for everyone or anyone looking for room to grow. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, creating the ideal space for relaxing and entertaining. Enjoy casual meals in the bright breakfast area, while the double vanity in the primary bathroom adds a touch of luxury. The spacious backyard is fully fenced with wood for added privacy, offering plenty of room for outdoor activities. With a 2-car garage and a thoughtful layout, this home blends comfort, convenience, and style—don't miss the opportunity to make it yours! Schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-03-26
   price $204,000 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   This stunning multi-level home offers ample space with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfect for everyone or anyone looking for room to grow. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, creating the ideal space for relaxing and entertaining. Enjoy casual meals in the bright breakfast area, while the double vanity in the primary bathroom adds a touch of luxury. The spacious backyard is fully fenced with wood for added privacy, offering plenty of room for outdoor activities. With a 2-car garage and a thoughtful layout, this home blends comfort, convenience, and style—don't miss the opportunity to make it yours! Schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-02-20
   price $208,000 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   This stunning multi-level home offers ample space with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfect for everyone or anyone looking for room to grow. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, creating the ideal space for relaxing and entertaining. Enjoy casual meals in the bright breakfast area, while the double vanity in the primary bathroom adds a touch of luxury. The spacious backyard is fully fenced with wood for added privacy, offering plenty of room for outdoor activities. With a 2-car garage and a thoughtful layout, this home blends comfort, convenience, and style—don't miss the opportunity to make it yours! Schedule your showing today!

5. 2026-01-09
   price $210,000 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   This stunning multi-level home offers ample space with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfect for everyone or anyone looking for room to grow. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, creating the ideal space for relaxing and entertaining. Enjoy casual meals in the bright breakfast area, while the double vanity in the primary bathroom adds a touch of luxury. The spacious backyard is fully fenced with wood for added privacy, offering plenty of room for outdoor activities. With a 2-car garage and a thoughtful layout, this home blends comfort, convenience, and style—don't miss the opportunity to make it yours! Schedule your showing today!

6. 2025-12-05
   price $214,000 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   This stunning multi-level home offers ample space with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfect for everyone or anyone looking for room to grow. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, creating the ideal space for relaxing and entertaining. Enjoy casual meals in the bright breakfast area, while the double vanity in the primary bathroom adds a touch of luxury. The spacious backyard is fully fenced with wood for added privacy, offering plenty of room for outdoor activities. With a 2-car garage and a thoughtful layout, this home blends comfort, convenience, and style—don't miss the opportunity to make it yours! Schedule your showing today!

7. 2025-11-04
   listed $216,000 Active 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   This stunning multi-level home offers ample space with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, perfect for everyone or anyone looking for room to grow. The inviting living room features a cozy fireplace, creating the ideal space for relaxing and entertaining. Enjoy casual meals in the bright breakfast area, while the double vanity in the primary bathroom adds a touch of luxury. The spacious backyard is fully fenced with wood for added privacy, offering plenty of room for outdoor activities. With a 2-car garage and a thoughtful layout, this home blends comfort, convenience, and style—don't miss the opportunity to make it yours! Schedule your showing today!

8. 2025-10-07
   historical
9. 2025-09-19
   price $216,000
10. 2025-08-22
    price $218,000
11. 2025-08-08
    price $222,000
12. 2025-07-25
    price $224,000
13. 2025-07-11
    price $229,000
14. 2025-06-27
    price $236,000
15. 2025-06-13
    price $238,000
16. 2025-05-29
    price $250,000
17. 2025-05-16
    price $261,000
18. 2025-05-01
    listed $273,000 Active
19. 2014-05-29
    soldstatus
20. 2014-05-28
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2014-05-19
    status Pending
22. 2014-05-08
    status Option Pending
23. 2014-05-04
    listed $97,900 Active
24. 2011-06-30
    historical
25. 2011-04-08
    listed $79,900
26. 2011-04-08
    historical
27. 2010-10-04
    listed $84,900
28. 2010-09-28
    historical
29. 2010-03-29
    listed $89,900
30. 2004-04-30
    historical
31. 2004-03-20
    listed $95,000
32. 2004-03-15
    historical
33. 2003-08-08
    listed $97,500
34. 1994-05-23
    soldstatus $66,160

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,356 · $363/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,356 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,427
• − Property taxes: −$4,356
• − Insurance: −$1,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,027
• − Management: −$2,027
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$5,935
• Taxable loss: −$1,735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$416
• After-tax cash flow: $1,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+208.3% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $204,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $208,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $214,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $216,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $216,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $218,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $222,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $224,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $236,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-13 Price Changed $238,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Price Changed $261,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $273,000 HARMLS
• 2014-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-04 Listed $97,900 HARMLS
• 2011-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-04-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-04-08 Listed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2010-10-04 Listed $84,900 HARMLS
• 2010-09-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-03-29 Listed $89,900 HARMLS
• 2004-04-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-03-20 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2004-03-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2003-08-08 Listed $97,500 HARMLS
• 1994-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $66,160 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,356 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.