400 Carson Roberson Rd · Livingston, TX 77351

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 684 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 176 Days on market

Built 1992 Fair condition 0.30 ac lot $146/sqft · 24% below area Est $131k · 24% under $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on 1.3905 acres, this property offers a peaceful and private setting surrounded by beautiful mature trees and natural scenery. Enjoy access to a small lake, creating the perfect opportunity for relaxing evenings, fishing, or simply taking in the tranquil atmosphere. The home does need some repairs and updates, but it offers great potential for someone looking to customize and make it their own. Located on a quiet dirt and gravel road, this property provides the charm of country living while still offering plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors and create your ideal retreat.

Key facts

• Country living
• 1.3905 acres
• Small lake

Tags

• 1.3905 ACRES
• SMALL LAKE
• MATURE TREES
• NATURAL SCENERY
• QUIET DIRT AND GRAVEL ROAD
• COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.7% in Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,113 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timber Creek El (math 56% / reading 47%, grade C-, #808 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 522 students, 74% FRL); Livingston J H (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 893 students, 62% FRL); Livingston H S (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,128 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1724 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $100k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.01%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,209
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -23.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
—	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	709 (+4%)	47mo	$532,000	$750	49
434 E George Jones Rd	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	540 (-21%)	22mo	$130,000	$241	42
197 Roy Acuff	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	852 (+25%)	48mo	$137,900	$162	32
1762 Hillbilly Heaven Rd	0.33mi	1/1.0 (-2)	576 (-16%)	42mo	$69,900	$121	30
145 Elvis Presley Rd	0.71mi	1/1.0 (-2)	727 (+6%)	59mo	$128,500	$177	27
146 S Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	799 (+17%)	46mo	$420,000	$526	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $9,067
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $40,412
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1724
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,318 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $815

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $425	+0% $397	+5% $369	+10% $340
Rent	-10% $293	-5% $345	+0% $397	+5% $449	+10% $501
Rate	-1.0pp $447	-0.5pp $422	base $397	+0.5pp $371	+1.0pp $345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Wild Country association with a $40 annual fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential propertyEntry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 1992Wood siding exteriorBlock foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Corner lotGravel road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (each approximately 8 x 10)Primary bedroom on the first floor (approximately 8 x 10)
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Wood flooring3 total rooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 176 DOM
2. 2026-10-30
   days on market $100,000 Active 175 DOM
3. 2026-10-29
   days on market $100,000 Active 174 DOM
4. 2026-10-28
   days on market $100,000 Active 173 DOM
5. 2026-10-27
   days on market $100,000 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-10-26
   days on market $100,000 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-10-26
   days on market $100,000 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-10-24
   days on market $100,000 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-10-23
   days on market $100,000 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-10-22
    days on market $100,000 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-10-21
    days on market $100,000 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-10-20
    days on market $100,000 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-10-19
    days on market $100,000 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-10-18
    days on market $100,000 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-10-17
    days on market $100,000 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-10-16
    days on market $100,000 Active 161 DOM
17. 2026-10-15
    days on market $100,000 Active 160 DOM
18. 2026-10-14
    days on market $100,000 Active 159 DOM
19. 2026-10-13
    days on market $100,000 Active 158 DOM
20. 2026-10-12
    days on market $100,000 Active 157 DOM
21. 2026-10-11
    days on market $100,000 Active 156 DOM
22. 2026-10-10
    days on market $100,000 Active 155 DOM
23. 2026-10-09
    days on market $100,000 Active 154 DOM
24. 2026-10-08
    days on market $100,000 Active 153 DOM
25. 2026-10-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 152 DOM
26. 2026-10-06
    days on market $100,000 Active 151 DOM
27. 2026-10-05
    days on market $100,000 Active 150 DOM
28. 2026-10-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 149 DOM
29. 2026-10-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 148 DOM
30. 2026-10-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 147 DOM
31. 2026-10-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 146 DOM
32. 2026-09-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 145 DOM
33. 2026-09-29
    days on market $100,000 Active 144 DOM
34. 2026-09-28
    days on market $100,000 Active 143 DOM
35. 2026-09-27
    days on market $100,000 Active 142 DOM
36. 2026-09-26
    days on market $100,000 Active 141 DOM
37. 2026-09-25
    days on market $100,000 Active 140 DOM
38. 2026-09-24
    days on market $100,000 Active 139 DOM
39. 2026-09-23
    days on market $100,000 Active 138 DOM
40. 2026-09-22
    days on market $100,000 Active 137 DOM
41. 2026-09-21
    days on market $100,000 Active 136 DOM
42. 2026-09-20
    days on market $100,000 Active 135 DOM
43. 2026-09-19
    days on market $100,000 Active 134 DOM
44. 2026-09-18
    days on market $100,000 Active 133 DOM
45. 2026-09-17
    days on market $100,000 Active 132 DOM
46. 2026-09-16
    days on market $100,000 Active 131 DOM
47. 2026-09-15
    days on market $100,000 Active 130 DOM
48. 2026-09-14
    days on market $100,000 Active 129 DOM
49. 2026-09-13
    days on market $100,000 Active 128 DOM
50. 2026-09-12
    days on market $100,000 Active 127 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$932/yr (+$78/mo · 103.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,265
• − Management: −$1,265
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,336
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$801
• After-tax cash flow: $3,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $17,100–$30,780 screening

This property requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Key areas needing attention include the roof, exterior siding, and flooring. Painting and landscaping improvements will significantly enhance its curb appeal and rental potential.

Components & finishes AI

Roof metal · good

Deferred maintenance Est. $2,500–$10,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Plumbing (plumbing) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Exterior (exterior) — No visible signs of damage or wear

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant rust and wear
• Major exterior siding — Peeling and damaged
• Minor interior walls — Chipped paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and repainting the exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and fencing repairs — Improves curb appeal and creates a more inviting environment ↑
• Both Roof repair — Fixes a major issue and improves safety ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Worn flooring detracts from the home's value and comfort ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 41/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Timber Creek El C- TX #808/4,322 Nat'l #12,137/41,679 Middle Livingston J H F TX #1,015/1,662 Nat'l #8,646/14,009 High Livingston H S F TX #798/1,632 Nat'l #8,052/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — Livingston

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1113
• US rank: #19723

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 51,049 people
• City population: 37,143
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Wild Country association with a $40 annual fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential propertyEntry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 1992Wood siding exteriorBlock foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Corner lotGravel road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (each approximately 8 x 10)Primary bedroom on the first floor (approximately 8 x 10)
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Wood flooring3 total rooms

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-14 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-03-23 Listed $40,000 HARMLS
• 2003-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $898 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.