400 Carson Roberson Rd · Big Thicket Lake Estates, TX 77351

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 684 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1992 0.30 ac lot $146/sqft · 24% below area Est $132k · 24% under $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on 1.3905 acres, this property offers a peaceful and private setting surrounded by beautiful mature trees and natural scenery. Enjoy access to a small lake, creating the perfect opportunity for relaxing evenings, fishing, or simply taking in the tranquil atmosphere. The home does need some repairs and updates, but it offers great potential for someone looking to customize and make it their own. Located on a quiet dirt and gravel road, this property provides the charm of country living while still offering plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors and create your ideal retreat.

Key facts

• Country living
• 1.3905 acres
• Small lake

Tags

• 1.3905 ACRES
• SMALL LAKE
• MATURE TREES
• NATURAL SCENERY
• QUIET DIRT AND GRAVEL ROAD
• COUNTRY LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Wild Country association with a $40 annual fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 1992; Wood siding exterior; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Gravel road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (each approximately 8 x 10); Primary bedroom on the first floor (approximately 8 x 10)
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Wood flooring; 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $358 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 4.0% in Big Thicket Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,532 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Livingston J H (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 893 students, 62% FRL); Livingston H S (math 35% / reading 46%, grade F, #798 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,128 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $100k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.33%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,629
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -24.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $6,562
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $35,002
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $358

Break-even live

Break-even rent $815

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $100,000 Active 587-char remark
15. 2026-01-11
    historical
16. 2025-06-14
    listed $120,000 Active
17. 2019-03-23
    historical
18. 2018-03-23
    listed $40,000
19. 2003-05-16
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$932/yr (+$78/mo · 103.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,217
• − Management: −$1,217
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,834
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$680
• After-tax cash flow: $3,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Thicket Lake Estates

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1532
• US rank: #26123

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-14 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2019-03-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-03-23 Listed $40,000 HARMLS
• 2003-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $898 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.