10411 Cady Rd · Napoleon, MI 49201

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,482 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 238 Days on market

Built 1982 3.01 ac lot $108/sqft · 46% below area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next big opportunity! This 3-bed, 3-bath home sits on just over three acres with multiple outbuildings, mineral rights, and a prime location. The main level offers three bedrooms, including a spacious primary bedroom with an attached bath featuring both a shower and garden tub. The basement provides a bonus area, storage room, kitchenette, bathroom, and three non-conforming spaces. While the sunroom rests on a crawl space, it also offers direct access to the basement for added flexibility. You’ll love the convenience—only 5 minutes to Napoleon Schools, 15 minutes from Michigan International Speedway and I-94, and under 20 minutes to Sackrider Hill and the Waterloo Recreation Area. The home and outbuildings require extensive repairs and are not currently livable. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Bring your tools, vision, and inspiration to unlock the full potential this property has to offer. All showings must be accompanied by a Michigan-licensed real estate professional. Enter at your own risk.

Key facts

• Storage room
• Mineral rights
• Kitchenette

Tags

• MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS
• MINERAL RIGHTS
• BONUS AREA
• STORAGE ROOM
• KITCHENETTE
• DIRECT ACCESS TO BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-133/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 1.6% in Napoleon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#600 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Napoleon Community Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #231 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.3%/yr); 366 active listings in the ZIP; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,061
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -51.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10620 Cady Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,588 (+7%)	11mo	$250,000	$157	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-18,960
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $17,486
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49201

• Rents YoY: 10.3%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,443 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$245 /mo · $2,943/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,457

Max offer price $158,036

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $34	+0% $-11	+5% $-56	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-68	+0% $-11	+5% $46	+10% $103
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $30	base $-11	+0.5pp $-53	+1.0pp $-95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 234 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 223 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 221 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 220 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 219 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 218 DOM
17. 2025-11-19
    price $160,000 1027-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1027 chars)

    Welcome to your next big opportunity! This 3-bed, 3-bath home sits on just over three acres with multiple outbuildings, mineral rights, and a prime location. The main level offers three bedrooms, including a spacious primary bedroom with an attached bath featuring both a shower and garden tub. The basement provides a bonus area, storage room, kitchenette, bathroom, and three non-conforming spaces. While the sunroom rests on a crawl space, it also offers direct access to the basement for added flexibility. You’ll love the convenience—only 5 minutes to Napoleon Schools, 15 minutes from Michigan International Speedway and I-94, and under 20 minutes to Sackrider Hill and the Waterloo Recreation Area. The home and outbuildings require extensive repairs and are not currently livable. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Bring your tools, vision, and inspiration to unlock the full potential this property has to offer. All showings must be accompanied by a Michigan-licensed real estate professional. Enter at your own risk.

18. 2025-10-24
    listed $180,000 Active 1027-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1027 chars)

    Welcome to your next big opportunity! This 3-bed, 3-bath home sits on just over three acres with multiple outbuildings, mineral rights, and a prime location. The main level offers three bedrooms, including a spacious primary bedroom with an attached bath featuring both a shower and garden tub. The basement provides a bonus area, storage room, kitchenette, bathroom, and three non-conforming spaces. While the sunroom rests on a crawl space, it also offers direct access to the basement for added flexibility. You’ll love the convenience—only 5 minutes to Napoleon Schools, 15 minutes from Michigan International Speedway and I-94, and under 20 minutes to Sackrider Hill and the Waterloo Recreation Area. The home and outbuildings require extensive repairs and are not currently livable. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Bring your tools, vision, and inspiration to unlock the full potential this property has to offer. All showings must be accompanied by a Michigan-licensed real estate professional. Enter at your own risk.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,943 · $245/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,943 · $245/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,943
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,385
• − Management: −$1,385
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,816
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$676
• After-tax cash flow: $542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Napoleon Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624960
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $52,236
• Composite: 32.97/100
• National rank: #5585
• State rank: #231 of 540 in MI

Livability — Napoleon

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #19694

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Napoleon, MI
• County: Jackson County · 85,581 people
• City population: 243
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• Population (ZIP): 49,107
• Household income: $74,484
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 840.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 156,365 people
• By 2030: 153,123 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 144,981 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 135,671 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 113,833 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 86,592 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.6% · R 59.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -198.89%
• Current HPI: 185.3773
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.32%
• Metro: Jackson, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $160,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $180,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,943 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.