40 Gilbert Ave · New Haven, CT 06511

$445,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,898 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1890 Est $394k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

& quot; & quot; The entire house underwent a complete renovation in 2003: new electrical and plumbing systems new drywall floor sanding and new carpeting new wall insulation a renovated exterior with cedar siding and a roof renovation with new plywood and asphalt paving. 160 sqft porch on 2nd floor. The front elevation features historic elements. & quot; & quot; & quot; & quot; & quot; & quot;

Key facts

• New drywall
• New carpeting
• Complete renovation

Tags

• COMPLETE RENOVATION
• NEW DRYWALL
• FLOOR SANDING
• NEW CARPETING
• NEW WALL INSULATION
• RENOVATED EXTERIOR

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1890
• Construction: Approximately 2,898 square feet of living area
• Exterior features: Located in the West River subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $74/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $410k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $410k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.9% in New Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#31 in CT, #2,190 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, crime F.
• New Haven School District (urban): math 12% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #147 of 153 in CT (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,105/mo this rent would consume 82% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 4999% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $145k; list at $445k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $410,500 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.43%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $394,128
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
201 Winthrop Ave	0.26mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,008 (+4%)	12mo	$330,000	$110	62
1537 Chapel St	0.37mi	4/2.0	3,299 (+14%)	8mo	$450,000	$136	53
36-38 Maple St	0.45mi	4/2.5	3,050 (+5%)	21mo	$379,000	$124	51
38 Auburn St	0.26mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,547 (-12%)	12mo	$470,000	$185	49
178 Sherman Ave	0.30mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,222 (+11%)	13mo	$555,000	$172	45
14 Dickerman St	0.61mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,963 (+2%)	22mo	$335,000	$113	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-64,229
• Equity at exit: $66,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-50,157
• Equity at exit: $38,475

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06511

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 18.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,105 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$576 /mo · $6,906/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$862
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,917

Max offer price $445,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $274	+0% $148	+5% $22	+10% $-103
Rent	-10% $-176	-5% $-14	+0% $148	+5% $311	+10% $473
Rate	-1.0pp $373	-0.5pp $262	base $148	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-84

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,106
Total (2 units)			$4,105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Sherman Ave Unit 3 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	3840	$1,800	$0.47	45d	1	0.18mi
43 Howe St New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	1995	$4,995	$2.50	15d	1	0.37mi
83 Norton St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	2869	$1,695	$0.59	15d	1	0.44mi
117 Maple St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.5	2421	$3,995	$1.65	4d	1	0.60mi
52 Goffe St New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	1935	$2,600	$1.34	24d	1	0.63mi
786 Elm St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	3795	$1,960	$0.52	45d	1	0.64mi
47 Dickerman St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	3729	$2,100	$0.56	45d	1	0.64mi
319 Sherman Ave Unit 1ST New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	3845	$2,495	$0.65	15d	1	0.64mi
319 Sherman Ave Unit 1st fl New Haven, CT	4.0	1.0	3845	$2,495	$0.65	45d	1	0.64mi
347 Sherman Ave New Haven, CT	5.0	3.0	3153	$2,300	$0.73	45d	1	0.70mi
867 Elm St New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	3763	$2,450	$0.65	45d	1	0.78mi
119 Carmel St Unit 3 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	3282	$1,900	$0.58	45d	1	0.85mi
355 Norton St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	5.0	2.5	2500	$3,300	$1.32	22d	1	0.87mi
69 Adeline St Unit D New Haven, CT	3.0	1.5	2600	$2,250	$0.87	24d	1	0.88mi
1519 Ella T Grasso Blvd Unit N/A New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	2750	$4,450	$1.62	24d	1	0.92mi
5 Oak Pl West Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	2300	$1,900	$0.83	4d	1	0.94mi
49 Hubinger St New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	2000	$2,950	$1.48	4d	1	0.95mi
82 Gilbert St West Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	2641	$2,400	$0.91	45d	1	0.96mi
50 Admiral St New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	2157	$2,700	$1.25	20d	1	0.99mi
55 Admiral St Unit 2 New Haven, CT	5.0	3.0	2000	$3,295	$1.65	24d	1	1.01mi
432 Norton Pkwy New Haven, CT	5.0	3.0	2493	$4,195	$1.68	45d	1	1.03mi
56 Mansfield St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	2759	$2,800	$1.01	45d	1	1.06mi
1634 Ella T Grasso Blvd New Haven, CT	4.0	1.5	2018	$3,600	$1.78	45d	1	1.13mi
16 Woodland St #1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	3786	$3,200	$0.85	45d	1	1.14mi
134 Mansfield St New Haven, CT	5.0	2.0	1960	$5,500	$2.81	24d	1	1.15mi
54 Trumbull St Unit 54-1 New Haven, CT	5.0	2.5	2250	$6,695	$2.98	15d	1	1.20mi
161 Lamberton St #3 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	3435	$1,975	$0.57	4d	1	1.22mi
452 Dixwell Ave New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	3891	$2,100	$0.54	45d	1	1.27mi
239 Bradley St Unit 1 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	1982	$3,650	$1.84	45d	1	1.28mi
30 Trumbull St New Haven, CT	5.0	4.0	2668	$5,000	$1.87	4d	1	1.28mi
1768 Ella T Grasso Blvd New Haven, CT	4.0	2.0	2193	$3,950	$1.80	45d	1	1.33mi
125 Stimson Rd New Haven, CT	3.0	2.5	3434	$3,500	$1.02	45d	1	1.44mi
151 Fitch St #161 New Haven, CT	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,481	$1.13	45d	1	1.45mi
364 W Rock Ave Unit 3 New Haven, CT	3.0	1.0	3226	$2,400	$0.74	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $445,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $445,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $445,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $445,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $445,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $445,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $445,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $445,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $445,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $445,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $445,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $445,000 Active 387-char remark
18. 2004-04-20
    soldstatus $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,906 · $576/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,214 · $685/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,308/yr (+$109/mo · 18.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$6,906
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,941
• − Management: −$3,941
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$5,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,350
• After-tax cash flow: $3,131/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Haven School District
• NCES district ID: 0902790
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,058
• Composite: 15.48/100
• National rank: #9308
• State rank: #147 of 153 in CT

Livability — New Haven

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #2190

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Haven, CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 132,813
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 54,730
• Household income: $59,969
• Rent vs Own: 80.3% rent · 19.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4999.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.05%
• Current HPI: 328.1353
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+206.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $445,000 FSBO.com
• 2004-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,906 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.