4603 Newcomb Ave · Zephyrhills, FL 33541

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 792 sqft · Manufactured public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1976 6,463 sqft lot Est $91k · 32% over $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OWN YOUR OWN LOT IN THE ZEPHYR SHORES 55+ Community Mobile Home Park. NO LOT RENT. This 2 BR / 1.5 BA Mobile Home is ready for you to create into your next home!

Key facts

• Florida room
• Heated pool
• 6,463 sq ft lot

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• HEATED POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee $50 (annual $600); Association approval required; Pets allowed; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; South-facing; Entry on one level
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal siding; Metal roof; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New River Elementary School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 721 students, 57% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,354/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 393% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.80%
• DSCR: 2.59
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $91,080
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35012 Dale Ave	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	732 (-8%)	4mo	$95,000	$130	74
35128 Dale Ave	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	852 (+8%)	8mo	$84,900	$100	68
35204 Ada Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	710 (-10%)	0mo	$80,000	$113	65
35142 Zephyr Shores Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	720 (-9%)	12mo	$83,000	$115	62
34840 Carl Ave	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (+6%)	20mo	$95,000	$113	61
4961 Britni Way	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	874 (+10%)	6mo	$70,000	$80	54
35246 Tiffani Lot 63 Ct	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	687 (-13%)	5mo	$118,000	$172	48
4006 William Hume Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	888 (+12%)	13mo	$140,000	$158	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $37,524
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $88,384
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,354 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,549/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $1,002

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,086

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35940 Inspiration Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$1,988	$1.92	2d	21	1.08mi
33976 Lusitano Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,895	$2.31	12d	71	1.11mi
33780 Charleston Club Cir Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,135	$2.19	2d	11	1.35mi
34002 Painthorse Way Wesley Chapel, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1022	$2,945	$2.88	2d	46	1.37mi
3829 Kim Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	2.0	1.0	832	$1,395	$1.68	24d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $119,900 Active 148 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $124,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 136 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 135 DOM
14. 2026-01-16
    listed $124,900 Active
15. 2022-11-02
    soldstatus $113,500
16. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus $113,500 Closed 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    OWN YOUR OWN LOT IN THE ZEPHYR SHORES 55+ Community Mobile Home Park. NO LOT RENT. This 2 BR / 1.5 BA Mobile Home is ready for you to create into your next home!

17. 2022-10-25
    status Pending 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    OWN YOUR OWN LOT IN THE ZEPHYR SHORES 55+ Community Mobile Home Park. NO LOT RENT. This 2 BR / 1.5 BA Mobile Home is ready for you to create into your next home!

18. 2022-10-24
    listed $113,500 Active 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    OWN YOUR OWN LOT IN THE ZEPHYR SHORES 55+ Community Mobile Home Park. NO LOT RENT. This 2 BR / 1.5 BA Mobile Home is ready for you to create into your next home!

19. 2021-08-04
    soldstatus $79,500
20. 2021-08-02
    soldstatus $79,500 Closed 739-char remark

    Show marketing remark (739 chars)

    ZEPHYR SHORES (55+ deed restricted community) NO LOT RENT where you OWN YOUR SPACIOUS LOT. This 2BR/1.5BA home offers NEW VINYL PLANK flooring in kitchen * NEW HOT WATER HEATER * NEW COOL SEAL ON ROOF * NEW INDOOR/OUTDOOR CARPET in the enclosed porch * NEW SHOWER ENCLOSURE 2018 * The spacious eat in kitchen has a pantry and lots of cabinetry and main bedroom has large closet and ensuite half bath * Utility room includes washer & dryer, plus this property includes a shed to store your tools and lawn equipment * Step out into your enclosed side porch/lanai and enjoy the Florida Breezes * Desireable Zephyr Shores Community has a beautifully maintained COMMUNITY POOL AND CLUBHOUSE * See it before it's gone!!!

21. 2021-07-20
    status Pending 739-char remark

    Show marketing remark (739 chars)

    ZEPHYR SHORES (55+ deed restricted community) NO LOT RENT where you OWN YOUR SPACIOUS LOT. This 2BR/1.5BA home offers NEW VINYL PLANK flooring in kitchen * NEW HOT WATER HEATER * NEW COOL SEAL ON ROOF * NEW INDOOR/OUTDOOR CARPET in the enclosed porch * NEW SHOWER ENCLOSURE 2018 * The spacious eat in kitchen has a pantry and lots of cabinetry and main bedroom has large closet and ensuite half bath * Utility room includes washer & dryer, plus this property includes a shed to store your tools and lawn equipment * Step out into your enclosed side porch/lanai and enjoy the Florida Breezes * Desireable Zephyr Shores Community has a beautifully maintained COMMUNITY POOL AND CLUBHOUSE * See it before it's gone!!!

22. 2021-07-08
    price $79,500 739-char remark

    Show marketing remark (739 chars)

    ZEPHYR SHORES (55+ deed restricted community) NO LOT RENT where you OWN YOUR SPACIOUS LOT. This 2BR/1.5BA home offers NEW VINYL PLANK flooring in kitchen * NEW HOT WATER HEATER * NEW COOL SEAL ON ROOF * NEW INDOOR/OUTDOOR CARPET in the enclosed porch * NEW SHOWER ENCLOSURE 2018 * The spacious eat in kitchen has a pantry and lots of cabinetry and main bedroom has large closet and ensuite half bath * Utility room includes washer & dryer, plus this property includes a shed to store your tools and lawn equipment * Step out into your enclosed side porch/lanai and enjoy the Florida Breezes * Desireable Zephyr Shores Community has a beautifully maintained COMMUNITY POOL AND CLUBHOUSE * See it before it's gone!!!

23. 2021-07-01
    listed $85,000 Active 739-char remark

    Show marketing remark (739 chars)

    ZEPHYR SHORES (55+ deed restricted community) NO LOT RENT where you OWN YOUR SPACIOUS LOT. This 2BR/1.5BA home offers NEW VINYL PLANK flooring in kitchen * NEW HOT WATER HEATER * NEW COOL SEAL ON ROOF * NEW INDOOR/OUTDOOR CARPET in the enclosed porch * NEW SHOWER ENCLOSURE 2018 * The spacious eat in kitchen has a pantry and lots of cabinetry and main bedroom has large closet and ensuite half bath * Utility room includes washer & dryer, plus this property includes a shed to store your tools and lawn equipment * Step out into your enclosed side porch/lanai and enjoy the Florida Breezes * Desireable Zephyr Shores Community has a beautifully maintained COMMUNITY POOL AND CLUBHOUSE * See it before it's gone!!!

24. 2011-07-22
    listed $35,900
25. 2010-04-28
    listed $42,900
26. 1998-06-29
    soldstatus $30,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,549 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,549 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,245
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,549
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,260
• − Management: −$2,260
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $10,773
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,586
• After-tax cash flow: $9,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+315.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $124,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $113,500 Public Records
• 2022-10-31 Sold (MLS) $113,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-24 Listed $113,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records
• 2021-08-02 Sold (MLS) $79,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-08 Price Changed $79,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-01 Listed $85,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-22 Listed $35,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-28 Listed $42,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $30,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,549 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.