24 N Mohican Trl · Smallwood, NY 12778

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily · 263 Days on market

Built 1945 Good condition 5,000 sqft lot $231/sqft · 6% below area Est $165k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step back in time with this original 1945 Smallwood log cabin, lovingly kept by the same family for generations. This charming three-season retreat is like a storybook dollhouse, featuring authentic details such as the original front door, classic doorbell, and beautiful wood floors that carry the character of the past. Perfectly situated just a few houses from the Smallwood waterfalls and Forest Reserve entrance, you can hear the gentle sound of bubbling water right from the house, a truly peaceful escape from the city. Enjoy the area’s natural beauty and convenience, with nearby waterfront restaurants, antique shops, Bethel Woods Center for the Arts, Kartrite Water Park, Resorts World Casino, yoga and wellness centers, and so much more. Whether you wish to preserve its original rustic charm or update it to your taste, this cabin offers a rare opportunity to own a piece of Smallwood history, a tranquil getaway where time stands still.

Key facts

• Antique shops
• Wood floors
• Smallwood waterfalls

Tags

• ORIGINAL LOG CABIN
• WOOD FLOORS
• SMALLWOOD WATERFALLS
• FOREST RESERVE ENTRANCE
• WATERFRONT RESTAURANTS
• ANTIQUE SHOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.9% in Smallwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,148 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Kenneth L Rutherford School (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #2,020 of 2,108 statewide, top 96%, 492 students, 81% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,960
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -6.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
60 Seminole Trl	0.15mi	2/1.0	704 (+5%)	15mo	$120,888	$172	73
65 W James Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0	640 (-5%)	10mo	$86,500	$135	68
28 E Oak St	0.41mi	2/1.0	642 (-4%)	8mo	$50,000	$78	67
91 W Oak St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (+1)	676 (+1%)	11mo	$230,000	$340	66
11 Iroquois Trl	0.34mi	1/1.0 (-1)	688 (+2%)	16mo	$250,000	$363	62
14 Seminole Trl S	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	748 (+11%)	1mo	$344,000	$460	60
58 Woodland Way	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	750 (+12%)	2mo	$135,000	$180	60
46 W Ozark Trl	0.51mi	2/1.0	618 (-8%)	4mo	$200,000	$324	60
69 Keller Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0	656 (-2%)	22mo	$104,750	$160	59
23 W James Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0	735 (+9%)	11mo	$120,000	$163	57
13 Mohawk Trl	0.28mi	3/1.5 (+1)	746 (+11%)	14mo	$250,000	$335	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $25,680
• Equity at exit: $69,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $81,683
• Equity at exit: $107,408

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $226,944 ($330/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -25.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 12778

• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $163	+0% $110	+5% $56	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-8	-5% $51	+0% $110	+5% $169	+10% $228
Rate	-1.0pp $188	-0.5pp $149	base $110	+0.5pp $70	+1.0pp $29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 E Mitchell Smallwood, NY	2.0	1.0	570	$1,500	$2.63	68d	1	0.40mi
74 Kitz Rd Unit 68A Monticello, NY	2.0	1.0	650	$1,600	$2.46	63d	1	1.49mi
74 Kitz Rd Unit 74C Monticello, NY	2.0	1.0	550	$1,350	$2.45	63d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $155,000 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $155,000 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $155,000 Active 259 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $155,000 Active 258 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $155,000 Active 255 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $155,000 Active 254 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $155,000 Active 253 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $155,000 Active 251 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $155,000 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $155,000 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $155,000 Active 247 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $155,000 Active 246 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $155,000 Active 245 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $155,000 Active 242 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $155,000 Active 240 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $155,000 Active 239 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $155,000 Active 238 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $155,000 Active 237 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $155,000 Active 236 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $155,000 Active 235 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $155,000 Active 234 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $155,000 Active 233 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 231 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $155,000 Active 230 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 229 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 228 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 227 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 226 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 225 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 224 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $155,000 Active 223 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $155,000 Active 222 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $155,000 Active 221 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    pricedays on market $155,000 Active 220 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $160,000 Active 218 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $160,000 Active 216 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $160,000 Active 215 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $160,000 Active 212 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $160,000 Active 211 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $160,000 Active 210 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $160,000 Active 209 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $160,000 Active 207 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $160,000 Active 204 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $160,000 Active 203 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 202 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 201 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 197 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 196 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,225
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$294
• After-tax cash flow: $1,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $3,360–$10,080 screening

This charming log cabin, built in 1945, offers a peaceful retreat with a good condition and minimal repairs needed. Fresh paint and some yard trimming can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears worn on interior walls
• Minor Landscaping — Some areas of the yard could benefit from trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Trim yard — A well-maintained yard can attract renters and increase rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Kenneth L Rutherford School F NY #2,020/2,108 Nat'l #36,039/41,679 Middle Robert J Kaiser Middle School F NY #661/729 Nat'l #11,464/14,009 High Monticello High School C NY #879/1,100 Nat'l #3,973/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Smallwood

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1148
• US rank: #23933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smallwood, NY
• County: Sullivan · 68,974 people
• City population: 456
• Population (ZIP): 456
• Household income: $66,406
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own

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Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 35% Romanian 19% Portuguese 11%
• Foreign-born: 28%
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-18 Listed $160,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid