10 Briarwood Rd · Lake Monticello, VA 22963

$325,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1998 0.50 ac lot Est $347k · 6% under $122/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity in this lovely one level home with attached two car garage. 4 bedrooms and two full baths with vaulted ceilings. Nice large lot with an updated deck for outdoor living.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-945/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Lake Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#284 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fluvanna County Public School District (rural): math 61% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #34 of 131 in VA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (715 students, 52% FRL); Fluvanna Middle (math 65% / reading 70%, grade A-, #98 of 342 statewide, top 30%, 763 students, 42% FRL); Fluvanna County High (math 60% / reading 76%, grade B, #180 of 319 statewide, top 57%, 1,488 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 23% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 200 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 138 units permitted in Fluvanna County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $325k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,690 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $347,136
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Briarwood Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,780 (-2%)	1mo	$300,000	$169	97
426 Jefferson Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,750 (-3%)	9mo	$341,700	$195	79
15 Smokewood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,811 (+0%)	1mo	$359,000	$198	77
3 Hawks Pl	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,778 (-2%)	7mo	$300,000	$169	65
5 Baskin Ct	0.30mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,931 (+7%)	8mo	$375,000	$194	59
7 Englewood Dr	0.56mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,860 (+3%)	2mo	$352,000	$189	59
25 Loblolly Rd	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,984 (+10%)	8mo	$380,000	$192	54
579 Jefferson Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,652 (-9%)	1mo	$350,000	$212	51
4 Clark Ct	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,712 (-5%)	7mo	$327,000	$191	48
449 Jefferson Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,568 (-13%)	8mo	$355,000	$226	44
14 Fairwood Pl	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,073 (+15%)	6mo	$353,500	$171	37
24 Xebec Rd	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,582 (-12%)	8mo	$299,000	$189	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-57,687
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-56,721
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22963

• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,647 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,497/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$122
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,747

Max offer price $311,086

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $13	+0% $-79	+5% $-171	+10% $-263
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-183	+0% $-79	+5% $26	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $4	base $-79	+0.5pp $-163	+1.0pp $-249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1 Old Mill Ct Palmyra, VA	4.0	2.0	2082	$2,200	$1.06	44d	1	0.83mi
25 Glen Burnie Rd Palmyra, VA	3.0	2.5	2128	$2,850	$1.34	6d	1	1.12mi
37 Laurin St Cunningham, VA	4.0	3.5	1800	$2,350	$1.31	14d	1	1.13mi
15 Tobacco Ter Palmyra, VA	3.0	2.5	2300	$3,300	$1.43	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $122 · $1,464/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $325,000
3. 2026-03-08
   status Active
4. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-19
   price $349,500
6. 2025-12-12
   status Active
7. 2025-12-10
   listed $365,000 Active
8. 2012-10-12
   soldstatus $210,000
9. 2012-08-23
   historical
10. 2012-06-15
    listed $229,000
11. 2012-04-23
    listed $239,000
12. 1988-01-01
    soldstatus $25,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,497 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,665 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: +$168/yr (+$14/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,497
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,541
• − Management: −$2,541
• − HOA: −$1,464
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$6,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,576
• After-tax cash flow: $630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fluvanna County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101380
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,601
• Composite: 57.6/100
• National rank: #1065
• State rank: #34 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake Monticello

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #10173

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Monticello, VA
• County: Fluvanna County · 16,896 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 16,896
• Household income: $104,259
• Rent vs Own: 6.2% rent · 93.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 47.0

Population outlook (Fluvanna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,237 people
• By 2030: 27,607 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 28,075 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 28,019 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 28,058 · +3.0%
• By 2100: 26,124 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fluvanna

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.3) · D 46.4% · R 52.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: -6.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.3 2020: R+4.7 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+6.2 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.94%
• Current HPI: 158.3322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1154.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $325,000 CAAR
• 2026-03-08 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-02-25 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $349,500 CAAR
• 2025-12-12 Relisted — CAAR
• 2025-12-10 Listed $365,000 CAAR
• 2012-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2012-08-23 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2012-06-15 Listed $229,000 CAAR
• 2012-04-23 Listed $239,000 CAAR
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,497 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.