2514 Bordelon Ln · Sienna, TX 77459

$333,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,013 sqft · Townhouse public records · 68 Days on market

Built 2020 4,849 sqft lot $165/sqft · 19% above area Est $280k · 19% over $110/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this stunning townhome in the sought-after Sienna Community. This 3 bed, 3 bath home boasts 42" cabinets, granite kitchen countertops, and a master bath with double sinks. Enjoy the 8 X 24' tile in common areas, wrought iron stair spindles, and front and rear sprinklers for convenience. The property features a landscaped front yard, grassy back yard, 2" faux wood blinds, security system, and a covered patio. With a downstairs bedroom perfect for guests or multigenerational living, this home offers a versatile layout. Don't miss the expansive game room, additional bedroom, and full bath upstairs. Experience the best of Sienna Plantation living!

Key facts

• Grassy back yard
• Security system
• $110 HOA

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• MASTER BATH WITH DOUBLE SINKS
• WROUGHT IRON STAIR SPINDLES
• LANDSCAPED FRONT YARD
• GRASSY BACK YARD
• SECURITY SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $333k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $889 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $333k).
• Recommended offer: $313k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($313k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $313,020 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.45%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,778
• List price: $333,000
• Delta: 19.02%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2522 Terrace Point Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,953 (-3%)	3mo	$280,000	$143	88
2546 Manor Valley Ct	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,958 (-3%)	5mo	$344,900	$176	85
8758 Laurel Crest Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,900 (-6%)	2mo	$275,000	$145	85
2506 Bordelon Ln	0.01mi	3/3.0	2,073 (+3%)	12mo	$299,900	$145	84
2527 Bordelon Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,820 (-10%)	0mo	$267,500	$147	80
2546 Bordelon Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,870 (-7%)	4mo	$255,000	$136	80
2531 Terrace Point Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,903 (-6%)	6mo	$275,000	$145	80
2502 Bordelon Ln	0.02mi	3/3.0	2,013 (0%)	23mo	$317,500	$158	80
2571 Terrace Point Dr	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,973 (-2%)	24mo	$295,000	$150	70
2558 Terrace Point Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,903 (-6%)	23mo	$300,000	$158	67
2526 Terrace Point Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,890 (-6%)	24mo	$289,000	$153	65
2523 Terrace Point Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,737 (-14%)	19mo	$279,900	$161	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $8,403
• Equity at exit: $69,840

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $46,305
• Equity at exit: $64,688

Cash invested: $93,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,746
• Tax from tax record: −$789 /mo · $9,465/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$976
• Net cashflow: $889

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,524

Max offer price $333,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,250
• Closing costs: $9,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.45mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	21d	1	0.68mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	43d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $110 · $1,320/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $333,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $333,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $333,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $333,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $333,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $333,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $333,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $333,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $333,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $333,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $333,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $333,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-04-11
    listed $333,000 Active 672-char remark

    Show marketing remark (672 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning townhome in the sought-after Sienna Community. This 3 bed, 3 bath home boasts 42" cabinets, granite kitchen countertops, and a master bath with double sinks. Enjoy the 8 X 24' tile in common areas, wrought iron stair spindles, and front and rear sprinklers for convenience. The property features a landscaped front yard, grassy back yard, 2" faux wood blinds, security system, and a covered patio. With a downstairs bedroom perfect for guests or multigenerational living, this home offers a versatile layout. Don't miss the expansive game room, additional bedroom, and full bath upstairs. Experience the best of Sienna Plantation living!

14. 2025-03-25
    soldstatus
15. 2025-01-28
    historical
16. 2024-12-04
    listed $325,000 Active
17. 2024-12-04
    historical
18. 2024-12-02
    price $325,000
19. 2024-12-01
    status Active
20. 2024-12-01
    historical
21. 2024-11-13
    listed $339,900 Active
22. 2024-10-17
    historical
23. 2024-08-28
    listed $359,999 Active
24. 2024-05-15
    historical
25. 2024-03-06
    status Active
26. 2024-03-05
    historical
27. 2024-03-05
    listed $359,999 Active
28. 2020-07-20
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2020-05-18
    status Pending
30. 2020-05-06
    price $250,000
31. 2020-04-15
    price $249,390
32. 2020-04-08
    price $251,390
33. 2020-03-19
    listed $269,390 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,465 · $789/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,465 · $789/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,653
• − Property taxes: −$9,465
• − Insurance: −$1,665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,464
• − Management: −$4,464
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$9,687
• Taxable income: $6,077
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,459
• After-tax cash flow: $9,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+23.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $333,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-04 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-02 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-11-13 Listed $339,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Listed $359,999 HARMLS
• 2024-05-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-03-05 Listed $359,999 HARMLS
• 2024-03-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-07-20 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-05-06 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2020-04-15 Price Changed $249,390 HARMLS
• 2020-04-08 Price Changed $251,390 HARMLS
• 2020-03-19 Listed $269,390 HARMLS

Property tax history

+102.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,465 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.