16 N Star Vale -- #56 · Star Valley, AZ 85541

$89,995

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 130 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1993 Average condition $100/sqft · 19% below area Est $111k · 19% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.1

Listing remarks MLS

This bright and beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is nestled in the trees. Featuring a spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, the home offers a welcoming living area with an electric fireplace for cozy evenings. The kitchen is well-equipped and opens into the living and dining spaces, perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Additional highlights include an in-unit washer and dryer, a large screened-in porch ideal for relaxing or enjoying your morning coffee, and a private 4-person spa for year-round enjoyment. A covered carport provides convenient, weather-protected parking and two separate storage sheds which offer plenty of space for tools or seasonal items. Everything you need is here—comfortable, turnkey living in a bright and inviting space. Additional features are a metal roof, newer appliances, newer light fixtures throughout, 1 year old hot water tank, 8' x 4' storage shed and an 8' x 6' storage shed, and a 2022 screened in porch that is 160 sf. This beautiful community offers a Clubhouse, Gym, Pickleball Court, Community Garden, Dog Park, Sewer and Trash which is all included in your space rent.

Key facts

• Private spa
• Metal roof
• Screened-in porch

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• PRIVATE SPA
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE SHEDS
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $333 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.1% in Star Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#380 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Julia Randall Elementary School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Rim Country Middle School (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 493 students, 53% FRL); Payson High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #141 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 790 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1031 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,195 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.88%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,000
• List price: $89,995
• Delta: -18.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 146A	0.00mi	2/1.0	928 (+4%)	12mo	$129,900	$140	82
16 N Star Vale Dr Unit 141B	0.14mi	2/2.0	896 (0%)	12mo	$135,000	$151	81
16 N Star Vale Dr #63	0.21mi	2/2.0	960 (+7%)	1mo	$80,000	$83	75
16 N Star Vale Rd #62	0.14mi	2/2.0	980 (+9%)	6mo	$92,500	$94	71
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 136A	0.21mi	2/2.0	800 (-11%)	4mo	$128,000	$160	67
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr #44	0.14mi	2/1.5	784 (-12%)	21mo	$88,400	$113	55
3933 E AZ Highway 260 -- #242	0.48mi	2/1.0	768 (-14%)	5mo	$147,900	$193	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $6,673
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $33,232
• Equity at exit: $7,781

Cash invested: $25,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $125,000 ($186/sqft)
• Median days on market: 82 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -33.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 1031
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $89,995

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $396	-5% $365	+0% $333	+5% $302	+10% $271
Rent	-10% $238	-5% $286	+0% $333	+5% $381	+10% $429
Rate	-1.0pp $379	-0.5pp $356	base $333	+0.5pp $310	+1.0pp $286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,499
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $89,995 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $89,995 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $89,995 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $89,995 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $89,995 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $89,995 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $89,995 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $89,995 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $89,995 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $89,995 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $89,995 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $89,995 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $89,995 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $89,995 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $89,995 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $89,995 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $89,995 Active 113 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $89,995 Active 112 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $89,995 Active 111 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $89,995 Active 110 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $89,995 Active 109 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $89,995 Active 108 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $89,995 Active 107 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $89,995 Active 106 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $89,995 Active 105 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $89,995 Active 104 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $89,995 Active 103 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $89,995 Active 102 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $89,995 Active 101 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $89,995 Active 100 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $89,995 Active 99 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $89,995 Active 98 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $89,995 Active 97 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $89,995 Active 96 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $89,995 Active 95 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $89,995 Active 94 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $89,995 Active 93 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $89,995 Active 92 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $89,995 Active 91 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $89,995 Active 90 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $89,995 Active 89 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $89,995 Active 88 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $89,995 Active 87 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $89,995 Active 86 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $89,995 Active 85 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $89,995 Active 84 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $89,995 Active 82 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $89,995 Active 81 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $89,995 Active 80 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $89,995 Active 79 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone D · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,512
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$655
• After-tax cash flow: $3,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,480–$13,440 screening

This manufactured home is in average condition with some cosmetic repairs needed. Painting the exterior siding and interior walls would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — some discoloration
• Minor interior paint — some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — enhances interior appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Payson Elementary School Middle Rim Country Middle School F AZ #100/218 Nat'l #10,089/14,009 High Payson High School F AZ #141/381 Nat'l #11,887/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

F Composite livability gradescore 44/100

Livability — Star Valley

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #26699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Star Valley, AZ
• County: Gila County · 50,229 people
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — CAAR
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-02-25 Pending — CAAR
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $107,000 CAAR
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $114,000 CAAR
• 2025-05-07 Listed $119,900 CAAR