16 N Star Vale Drive Dr #56 · Star Valley, AZ 85541

$107,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 369 Days on market

Built 1993 Average condition $119/sqft · 14% below area Est $124k · 14% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This bright and beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is nestled in the trees. Featuring a spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, the home offers a welcoming living area with an electric fireplace for cozy evenings. The kitchen is well-equipped and opens into the living and dining spaces, perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Additional highlights include an in-unit washer and dryer, a large screened-in porch ideal for relaxing or enjoying your morning coffee, and a private 4-person spa for year-round enjoyment. A covered carport provides convenient, weather-protected parking and two separate storage sheds which offer plenty of space for tools or seasonal items. Everything you need is here—comfortable, turnkey living in a bright and inviting space. Additional features are a metal roof, newer appliances, newer light fixtures throughout, 1 year old hot water tank, 8' x 4' storage shed and an 8' x 6' storage shed, and a 2022 screened in porch that is 160 sf. This beautiful community offers a Clubhouse, Gym, Pickleball Court, Community Garden, Dog Park, Sewer and Trash which is all included in your space rent.

Key facts

• Private 4-person spa
• Covered carport
• Electric fireplace

Tags

• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• LARGE SCREENED-IN PORCH
• PRIVATE 4-PERSON SPA
• COVERED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $107k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $107k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 3.8% in Star Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#380 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Julia Randall Elementary School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #586 of 1,109 statewide, top 53%, 576 students, 58% FRL); Rim Country Middle School (math 21% / reading 31%, grade F, #100 of 218 statewide, top 47%, 493 students, 53% FRL); Payson High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #141 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 790 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 706 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $740 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 369 days — a 12% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 369 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.49%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,135
• List price: $107,000
• Delta: -13.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr Unit 146A	0.00mi	2/1.0	928 (+4%)	8mo	$129,900	$140	86
16 N Star Vale Dr Unit 141B	0.14mi	2/2.0	896 (0%)	8mo	$135,000	$151	85
16 N Star Vale Rd #62	0.14mi	2/2.0	980 (+9%)	1mo	$92,500	$94	75
16 N Star Vale Drive Dr #44	0.14mi	2/1.5	784 (-12%)	16mo	$88,400	$113	59
16 N Star Vale Dr #47	0.14mi	2/2.0	980 (+9%)	20mo	$159,500	$163	59
190 N Cornerstone Way #47	0.67mi	2/2.0	840 (-6%)	24mo	$35,000	$42	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $15,264
• Equity at exit: $15,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $55,338
• Equity at exit: $9,251

Cash invested: $29,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 706
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$561
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$134 /mo · $1,605/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $936

Max offer price $107,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $585	-5% $548	+0% $512	+5% $475	+10% $438
Rent	-10% $386	-5% $449	+0% $512	+5% $574	+10% $637
Rate	-1.0pp $565	-0.5pp $539	base $512	+0.5pp $484	+1.0pp $456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,750
• Closing costs: $3,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $107,000 Active 369 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $107,000 Active 367 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $107,000 Active 366 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $107,000 Active 365 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $107,000 Active 364 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $107,000 Active 363 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $107,000 Active 361 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $107,000 Active 360 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $107,000 Active 357 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $107,000 Active 356 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $107,000 Active 355 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $107,000 Active 351 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $107,000 Active 350 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $107,000 Active 349 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $107,000 Active 348 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $107,000 Active 347 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    status Active 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    This bright and beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is nestled in the trees. Featuring a spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, the home offers a welcoming living area with an electric fireplace for cozy evenings. The kitchen is well-equipped and opens into the living and dining spaces, perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Additional highlights include an in-unit washer and dryer, a large screened-in porch ideal for relaxing or enjoying your morning coffee, and a private 4-person spa for year-round enjoyment. A covered carport provides convenient, weather-protected parking and two separate storage sheds which offer plenty of space for tools or seasonal items. Everything you need is here—comfortable, turnkey living in a bright and inviting space. Additional features are a metal roof, newer appliances, newer light fixtures throughout, 1 year old hot water tank, 8' x 4' storage shed and an 8' x 6' storage shed, and a 2022 screened in porch that is 160 sf. This beautiful community offers a Clubhouse, Gym, Pickleball Court, Community Garden, Dog Park, Sewer and Trash which is all included in your space rent.

18. 2026-04-13
    historical Active Under Contract 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    This bright and beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is nestled in the trees. Featuring a spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, the home offers a welcoming living area with an electric fireplace for cozy evenings. The kitchen is well-equipped and opens into the living and dining spaces, perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Additional highlights include an in-unit washer and dryer, a large screened-in porch ideal for relaxing or enjoying your morning coffee, and a private 4-person spa for year-round enjoyment. A covered carport provides convenient, weather-protected parking and two separate storage sheds which offer plenty of space for tools or seasonal items. Everything you need is here—comfortable, turnkey living in a bright and inviting space. Additional features are a metal roof, newer appliances, newer light fixtures throughout, 1 year old hot water tank, 8' x 4' storage shed and an 8' x 6' storage shed, and a 2022 screened in porch that is 160 sf. This beautiful community offers a Clubhouse, Gym, Pickleball Court, Community Garden, Dog Park, Sewer and Trash which is all included in your space rent.

19. 2026-04-08
    status Active 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    This bright and beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is nestled in the trees. Featuring a spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, the home offers a welcoming living area with an electric fireplace for cozy evenings. The kitchen is well-equipped and opens into the living and dining spaces, perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Additional highlights include an in-unit washer and dryer, a large screened-in porch ideal for relaxing or enjoying your morning coffee, and a private 4-person spa for year-round enjoyment. A covered carport provides convenient, weather-protected parking and two separate storage sheds which offer plenty of space for tools or seasonal items. Everything you need is here—comfortable, turnkey living in a bright and inviting space. Additional features are a metal roof, newer appliances, newer light fixtures throughout, 1 year old hot water tank, 8' x 4' storage shed and an 8' x 6' storage shed, and a 2022 screened in porch that is 160 sf. This beautiful community offers a Clubhouse, Gym, Pickleball Court, Community Garden, Dog Park, Sewer and Trash which is all included in your space rent.

20. 2026-02-25
    status Pending 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    This bright and beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is nestled in the trees. Featuring a spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, the home offers a welcoming living area with an electric fireplace for cozy evenings. The kitchen is well-equipped and opens into the living and dining spaces, perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Additional highlights include an in-unit washer and dryer, a large screened-in porch ideal for relaxing or enjoying your morning coffee, and a private 4-person spa for year-round enjoyment. A covered carport provides convenient, weather-protected parking and two separate storage sheds which offer plenty of space for tools or seasonal items. Everything you need is here—comfortable, turnkey living in a bright and inviting space. Additional features are a metal roof, newer appliances, newer light fixtures throughout, 1 year old hot water tank, 8' x 4' storage shed and an 8' x 6' storage shed, and a 2022 screened in porch that is 160 sf. This beautiful community offers a Clubhouse, Gym, Pickleball Court, Community Garden, Dog Park, Sewer and Trash which is all included in your space rent.

21. 2025-12-12
    price $107,000 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    This bright and beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is nestled in the trees. Featuring a spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, the home offers a welcoming living area with an electric fireplace for cozy evenings. The kitchen is well-equipped and opens into the living and dining spaces, perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Additional highlights include an in-unit washer and dryer, a large screened-in porch ideal for relaxing or enjoying your morning coffee, and a private 4-person spa for year-round enjoyment. A covered carport provides convenient, weather-protected parking and two separate storage sheds which offer plenty of space for tools or seasonal items. Everything you need is here—comfortable, turnkey living in a bright and inviting space. Additional features are a metal roof, newer appliances, newer light fixtures throughout, 1 year old hot water tank, 8' x 4' storage shed and an 8' x 6' storage shed, and a 2022 screened in porch that is 160 sf. This beautiful community offers a Clubhouse, Gym, Pickleball Court, Community Garden, Dog Park, Sewer and Trash which is all included in your space rent.

22. 2025-09-30
    price $114,000 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    This bright and beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is nestled in the trees. Featuring a spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, the home offers a welcoming living area with an electric fireplace for cozy evenings. The kitchen is well-equipped and opens into the living and dining spaces, perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Additional highlights include an in-unit washer and dryer, a large screened-in porch ideal for relaxing or enjoying your morning coffee, and a private 4-person spa for year-round enjoyment. A covered carport provides convenient, weather-protected parking and two separate storage sheds which offer plenty of space for tools or seasonal items. Everything you need is here—comfortable, turnkey living in a bright and inviting space. Additional features are a metal roof, newer appliances, newer light fixtures throughout, 1 year old hot water tank, 8' x 4' storage shed and an 8' x 6' storage shed, and a 2022 screened in porch that is 160 sf. This beautiful community offers a Clubhouse, Gym, Pickleball Court, Community Garden, Dog Park, Sewer and Trash which is all included in your space rent.

23. 2025-05-07
    listed $119,900 Active 1170-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1170 chars)

    This bright and beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is nestled in the trees. Featuring a spacious open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, the home offers a welcoming living area with an electric fireplace for cozy evenings. The kitchen is well-equipped and opens into the living and dining spaces, perfect for everyday living or entertaining. Additional highlights include an in-unit washer and dryer, a large screened-in porch ideal for relaxing or enjoying your morning coffee, and a private 4-person spa for year-round enjoyment. A covered carport provides convenient, weather-protected parking and two separate storage sheds which offer plenty of space for tools or seasonal items. Everything you need is here—comfortable, turnkey living in a bright and inviting space. Additional features are a metal roof, newer appliances, newer light fixtures throughout, 1 year old hot water tank, 8' x 4' storage shed and an 8' x 6' storage shed, and a 2022 screened in porch that is 160 sf. This beautiful community offers a Clubhouse, Gym, Pickleball Court, Community Garden, Dog Park, Sewer and Trash which is all included in your space rent.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone D · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,994
• − Property taxes: −$1,605
• − Insurance: −$535
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,520
• − Management: −$1,520
• − Depreciation: −$3,113
• Taxable income: $4,715
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,132
• After-tax cash flow: $5,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in average condition with some cosmetic repairs needed. Painting the exterior siding and interior walls would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — some discoloration
• Minor interior paint — some wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both paint interior walls — enhances interior appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
interior paint · some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior siding — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — enhances interior appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Star Valley

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #380
• US rank: #26699

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Star Valley, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — CAAR
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-02-25 Pending — CAAR
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $107,000 CAAR
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $114,000 CAAR
• 2025-05-07 Listed $119,900 CAAR