123 S 4th St · Donna, TX 78537

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 724 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1963 0.32 ac lot $69/sqft · 15% below area ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention investors, this property offers a strong opportunity to add value and build equity. Perfect for renovation, or resale, the home has great upside potential for those looking to capitalize on a value add project. The property is being sold as is and is ideal for experienced investors or buyers ready to bring their vision and unlock its potential. Showings will begin soon, more details to come.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 51 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($686 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.7% in Donna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,411 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Donna ISD (suburban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #821 of 826 in TX (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: A M Ochoa El (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,207 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 360 students, 94% FRL); A P Solis Middle (math 8% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,602 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 666 students, 93% FRL); Donna H S (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 2,095 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 48% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 327 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.30%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $198,375
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -74.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 Silver Ave	0.20mi	2/1.0	720 (-1%)	10mo	$115,000	$160	82
106 Cedar Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0	832 (+15%)	17mo	$118,000	$142	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.65×
• Total profit: $37,149
• Equity at exit: $45,044

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.26×
• Total profit: $101,698
• Equity at exit: $97,139

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78537

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $686 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,244/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$144
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $490

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $169	+0% $155	+5% $141	+10% $127
Rent	-10% $101	-5% $128	+0% $155	+5% $182	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $168	base $155	+0.5pp $142	+1.0pp $129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
306 E Roberts Ave Donna, TX	2.0	1.0	620	$550	$0.89	45d	1	0.19mi
406 S 10th St Donna, TX	3.0	1.0	720	$850	$1.18	45d	1	0.53mi
202 W South Ave Donna, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$895	$1.49	45d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Attention investors, this property offers a strong opportunity to add value and build equity. Perfect for renovation, or resale, the home has great upside potential for those looking to capitalize on a value add project. The property is being sold as is and is ideal for experienced investors or buyers ready to bring their vision and unlock its potential. Showings will begin soon, more details to come.

2. 2026-05-04
   price $50,000 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Attention investors, this property offers a strong opportunity to add value and build equity. Perfect for renovation, or resale, the home has great upside potential for those looking to capitalize on a value add project. The property is being sold as is and is ideal for experienced investors or buyers ready to bring their vision and unlock its potential. Showings will begin soon, more details to come.

3. 2026-04-21
   price $60,000 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Attention investors, this property offers a strong opportunity to add value and build equity. Perfect for renovation, or resale, the home has great upside potential for those looking to capitalize on a value add project. The property is being sold as is and is ideal for experienced investors or buyers ready to bring their vision and unlock its potential. Showings will begin soon, more details to come.

4. 2026-03-25
   price $63,000 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Attention investors, this property offers a strong opportunity to add value and build equity. Perfect for renovation, or resale, the home has great upside potential for those looking to capitalize on a value add project. The property is being sold as is and is ideal for experienced investors or buyers ready to bring their vision and unlock its potential. Showings will begin soon, more details to come.

5. 2026-03-16
   listed $65,000 Active 404-char remark

   Show marketing remark (404 chars)

   Attention investors, this property offers a strong opportunity to add value and build equity. Perfect for renovation, or resale, the home has great upside potential for those looking to capitalize on a value add project. The property is being sold as is and is ideal for experienced investors or buyers ready to bring their vision and unlock its potential. Showings will begin soon, more details to come.

6. 2026-02-23
   listed $60,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,244
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$659
• − Management: −$659
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $1,165
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$280
• After-tax cash flow: $1,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Donna ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817390
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $27,330
• Composite: 11.16/100
• National rank: #9728
• State rank: #821 of 826 in TX

Livability — Donna

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1411
• US rank: #24172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Donna, TX
• City population: 51,346
• Population (ZIP): 51,346

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 49% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.30%
• Current HPI: 243.3933
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $50,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $60,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $63,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $65,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $60,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,244 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.