4316 S Kirkman Rd #1610 · Orlando, FL 32811

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · Condo public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1997 $521/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Gated community with 24 hour security. Gym, Fishing Pier

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fishing pier
• Gym

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• 24 HOUR SECURITY
• GYM
• FISHING PIER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $521 (total annual fees $6,252); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee $521 (includes pool, maintenance of structure and grounds, private road, security, sewer, trash, water); Association approval required; Community clubhouse and fitness center; Pets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Security: 24-hour guard (HOA amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Condominium; Residential property; One story (unit located on 2nd floor); North-facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation
• Exterior features: Balcony; Lake access with fishing pier

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (unit on 2nd floor)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-145 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (14.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 238 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,057/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,301 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.56%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-42,983
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.43×
• Total profit: $-70,065
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32811

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,057 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$259 /mo · $3,109/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$521
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,241

Max offer price $149,301

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4320 S Kirkman Rd #1508 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1042	$1,600	$1.54	21d	1	0.03mi
4312 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	10d	1	0.04mi
4312 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,300	$2.75	23d	1	0.04mi
4324 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	730	$2,700	$3.70	23d	1	0.05mi
4352 S Kirkman Rd #1203 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,000	$2.50	21d	1	0.07mi
4352 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$3,000	$3.11	2d	2	0.07mi
4368 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	730	$2,700	$3.70	23d	1	0.09mi
4368 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$2,700	$3.13	14d	2	0.09mi
4332 S Kirkman Rd #1003 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	729	$1,350	$1.85	3d	1	0.10mi
4356 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	996	$2,300	$2.31	23d	2	0.13mi
4401 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,774	$1.87	4d	9	0.16mi
5606 Blue Shadows Ct #10 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	963	$1,900	$1.97	23d	1	0.21mi
5628 Blue Shadows Ct Unit 2 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	23d	1	0.21mi
4323 Pinebark Ave Unit 77-1 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	963	$1,450	$1.51	17d	1	0.26mi
4448 Pinebark Ave Unit 56/1 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	965	$1,890	$1.96	23d	1	0.30mi
4448 Pinebark Ave Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	965	$1,890	$1.96	16d	1	0.32mi
6025 Oakshadow St Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,788	$1.88	1d	64	0.33mi
4434 Middlebrook Rd Unit 4 Orlando, FL	3.0	3.0	1447	$2,300	$1.59	23d	1	0.43mi
4356 Middlebrook Rd Unit 3 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.5	994	$1,395	$1.40	1d	1	0.43mi
4354 Middlebrook Rd #4354 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.5	848	$1,449	$1.71	7d	1	0.43mi
5501 Conroy Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	1.5	930	$1,439	$1.55	2d	3	0.44mi
4454 Middlebrook Rd #4454 Orlando, FL	1.0	1.5	848	$1,380	$1.63	23d	1	0.45mi
4618 Middlebrook Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	710	$1,999	$2.82	2d	28	0.51mi
5371 Bamboo Ct #401 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1285	$1,000	$0.78	23d	1	0.52mi
3361 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0	1411	$1,595	$1.13	23d	2	0.54mi
5349 Bamboo Ct #416 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1285	$2,150	$1.67	23d	1	0.56mi
3397 S Kirkman Rd #1418 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,995	$1.39	23d	1	0.56mi
3301 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1288	$1,773	$1.38	1d	21	0.56mi
3349 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	1.0	1.0	890	$1,350	$1.52	23d	1	0.57mi
3307 S Kirkman Rd #123 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1212	$1,550	$1.28	23d	1	0.60mi
5269 Middle Ct #130 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.5	1285	$1,800	$1.40	17d	1	0.61mi
3337 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1212	$1,595	$1.32	14d	1	0.63mi
3319 S Kirkman Rd #311 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,650	$1.45	16d	1	0.63mi
6421 Conroy Rd Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,970	$2.32	2d	21	0.63mi
5303 Indian Creek Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,500	$1.34	2d	1	0.64mi
3313 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,745	$1.22	3d	2	0.65mi
3313 S Kirkman Rd Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,745	$1.22	2d	2	0.65mi
4881 Cypress Woods Dr Orlando, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1268	$1,700	$1.34	23d	2	0.66mi
5055 Eaglesmere Dr Unit D-04 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.5	999	$1,800	$1.80	23d	1	0.69mi
6100 Stevenson Dr #208 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,900	$1.58	17d	1	0.70mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $521 · $6,252/yr
• Likely covers: gymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-04-14
    listed $175,000 Active
12. 2023-08-08
    soldstatus $200,000
13. 2016-08-04
    soldstatus $102,000
14. 2013-10-28
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,109
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,975
• − Management: −$1,975
• − HOA: −$6,252
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,054
• After-tax cash flow: $-692/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orlando, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,475
• Household income: $54,082
• Rent vs Own: 69.9% rent · 30.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2728.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 17% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Estonian 4% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 8% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.37%
• Current HPI: 284.9191
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.15%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+105.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,109 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.