19 Sherwood Ct · Silver Ridge, NJ 08757

$249,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 971 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1970 6,969 sqft lot Est $268k · 7% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If your looking for solitude, this Sussex model is located on a quiet cul-de-sac just close enough to shopping and transportation to be convenient, yet secluded enough to enjoy the country like atmosphere. If your looking for a well maintained affordable home, then this is the Sussex for you.

Key facts

• Community clubhouse
• Tree lined loop
• Medical facilities

Tags

• TREE LINED LOOP
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE
• MEDICAL FACILITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Silver Ridge Park East association; Quarterly association fee of $100; Association amenities include clubhouse and common areas (no pool)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: Sussex; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Multiple cooling units
• Interior features: AC units; Garage door opener
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#338 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Regional Middle School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #279 of 431 statewide, top 66%, 716 students, 37% FRL); Central Regional High School (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #312 of 399 statewide, top 79%, 1,606 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 509 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,349/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $249k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,861 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.56%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,996
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Sherwood Ln	0.04mi	2/1.0	1,083 (+12%)	4mo	$248,000	$229	75
57 Eton Rd	0.56mi	2/1.0	971 (0%)	2mo	$280,000	$288	72
9 Hamilton Ct	0.57mi	2/1.0	971 (0%)	2mo	$225,000	$232	72
63 Brakenbury Dr	0.58mi	2/1.0	971 (0%)	2mo	$265,000	$273	71
1 Cambridge Ct	0.46mi	2/1.0	944 (-3%)	3mo	$305,000	$323	71
1111 Waterberry Ct S	0.27mi	2/1.5	1,083 (+12%)	4mo	$299,000	$276	62
18 Bolingbroke Dr	0.40mi	2/1.5	1,074 (+11%)	2mo	$320,000	$298	60
1086 Edgebrook Dr S	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,083 (+12%)	3mo	$310,000	$286	57
1074 Edgebrook Dr S	0.51mi	2/1.0	1,074 (+11%)	2mo	$255,000	$237	56
11 Margarita St	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+12%)	3mo	$282,000	$258	54
14 Saint Pierri Ct	0.44mi	2/1.5	1,092 (+12%)	3mo	$295,000	$270	54
48 Harrington Dr S	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+13%)	3mo	$349,900	$318	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-27,190
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-6,757
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,473/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,087

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $348	-5% $277	+0% $207	+5% $136	+10% $66
Rent	-10% $21	-5% $114	+0% $207	+5% $300	+10% $392
Rate	-1.0pp $332	-0.5pp $270	base $207	+0.5pp $142	+1.0pp $77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 York St Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1105	$2,200	$1.99	0d	1	0.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 663-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $249,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,473 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,337 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,863/yr (+$155/mo · 75.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,473
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,255
• − Management: −$2,255
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$1,632
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$392
• After-tax cash flow: $2,873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Silver Ridge

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #338
• US rank: #10927

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Ridge, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+194.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $249,000 MOMLS
• 2013-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records
• 2012-12-28 Sold (MLS) $78,250 MOMLS
• 2012-07-18 Listed $84,500 MOMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,473 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.