1865 Jennings Way · Lakeside, FL 32068

$220,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,403 sqft · Townhouse · 33 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $239k · 7% under $176/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enter through the covered porch into the foyer, where a powder bath and convenient access to the garage are located. Continue into the open-concept main level, featuring a kitchen that flows into the dining area and family room. A door connects the main living space to the rear patio, extending the home's usable area outdoors. Upstairs, a centrally located laundry room adds everyday functionality. The primary bedroom includes a private bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms share a full bathroom. The layout is designed for comfort, efficiency, and flexibility to best fit your needs.

Key facts

• Neighborhood park
• Playground
• $176 HOA

Tags

• NEIGHBORHOOD PARK
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee of $176; Community amenities include a park and a playground

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; Off-street parking; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Property is attached
• Construction: Composition siding; Fiber cement exterior; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (secondary-level bedrooms noted)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $221k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Wilkinson Junior High School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 752 students, 100% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 35% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 610 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $204,985 (7.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.63%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,510
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1576 Jeremiah St	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,468 (+5%)	6mo	$245,990	$168	53
1568 Jeremiah St	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,468 (+5%)	6mo	$238,990	$163	53
1564 Jeremiah St	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,468 (+5%)	6mo	$238,990	$163	52
1580 Jeremiah St	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,468 (+5%)	7mo	$271,000	$185	52
1572 Jeremiah St	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,468 (+5%)	8mo	$259,000	$176	51
3839 Baxley Villas Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,604 (+14%)	1mo	$287,000	$179	41
3891 Baxley Villas Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,604 (+14%)	1mo	$259,990	$162	41
3875 Baxley Villas Ct	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,604 (+14%)	3mo	$269,990	$168	39
3849 Baxley Villas Ct	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,604 (+14%)	3mo	$285,000	$178	39
3861 Baxley Villas Ct	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,604 (+14%)	4mo	$280,000	$175	39
3873 Baxley Villas Ct	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,604 (+14%)	4mo	$269,900	$168	39
3877 Baxley Villas Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,604 (+14%)	4mo	$272,990	$170	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-40,286
• Equity at exit: $32,950

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-38,396
• Equity at exit: $19,107

Cash invested: $61,877 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 610
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,159
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$276 /mo · $3,315/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$176
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-84

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,156

Max offer price $208,860

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $-7	+0% $-84	+5% $-160	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-165	+0% $-84	+5% $-3	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-28	base $-84	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-199

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,248
• Closing costs: $6,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3861 Baxley Villas Ct Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,000	$1.25	16d	1	0.73mi
1469 Jeremiah St Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1468	$2,000	$1.36	25d	1	0.84mi
1854 Alberta Ct N Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,775	$1.49	25d	1	0.88mi
1871 Alberta Ct S Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1524	$1,720	$1.13	25d	1	0.96mi
1809 Penzance Pkwy Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,100	$1.23	6d	1	0.97mi
1685 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$1,900	$1.57	25d	1	1.00mi
1633 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1502	$1,900	$1.26	25d	1	1.02mi
1334 Camp Ridge Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,175	$1.41	25d	1	1.12mi
1706 Foggy Day Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1792	$2,200	$1.23	4d	1	1.25mi
1793 Foggy Day Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,100	$1.16	25d	1	1.37mi
3640 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1178	$1,710	$1.45	4d	1	1.37mi
1976 Hunters Trace Cir Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,880	$1.19	4d	1	1.43mi
3413 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,711	$1.30	22d	1	1.47mi
1568 Backwater Dr Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1594	$1,895	$1.19	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $176 · $2,112/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,990 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,990 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,990 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,990 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,990 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,990 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $220,990 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,990 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,990 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,990 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $244,990 Active
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $244,990 Active 605-char remark

    Show marketing remark (605 chars)

    Enter through the covered porch into the foyer, where a powder bath and convenient access to the garage are located. Continue into the open-concept main level, featuring a kitchen that flows into the dining area and family room. A door connects the main living space to the rear patio, extending the home's usable area outdoors. Upstairs, a centrally located laundry room adds everyday functionality. The primary bedroom includes a private bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms share a full bathroom. The layout is designed for comfort, efficiency, and flexibility to best fit your needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,379
• − Property taxes: −$3,315
• − Insurance: −$1,105
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − HOA: −$2,112
• − Depreciation: −$6,429
• Taxable loss: −$4,677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,122
• After-tax cash flow: $117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready townhome in Middleburg, FL is in excellent condition with modern appliances and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and interior could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Interior touch-ups — Freshens the interior and enhances value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Freshens the interior and enhances value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $244,990 realMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $244,990 Zillow