6209 Yonder Ln · Midland, TX 79705

$278,010

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The 1,700 square-foot Paisley floor plan is a smart step up in space, with a layout that makes room for what's next. Brick exterior with covered front porchLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet and double vanityCovered back patio

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Brick exterior
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE OR QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN ISLAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 6209 Yonder Ln, Midland TX 79705; List price available
• Financial info: Listing status: Active

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Spec home, Plan name Paisley; Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,700

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,211 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.92%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-34,105
• Equity at exit: $41,452

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-18,767
• Equity at exit: $24,037

Cash invested: $77,843 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,672 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,170/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,432

Max offer price $278,010

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $382	-5% $286	+0% $190	+5% $94	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-21	-5% $84	+0% $190	+5% $295	+10% $401
Rate	-1.0pp $330	-0.5pp $260	base $190	+0.5pp $118	+1.0pp $44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,502
• Closing costs: $8,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6109 Buckthorn Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$2,900	$1.75	22d	1	0.15mi
6220 Kingsville St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,400	$1.83	14d	1	0.17mi
2908 Yellowhouse Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,650	$1.75	22d	1	0.19mi
5917 Praline St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$2,500	$2.00	22d	1	0.26mi
2716 River Bend Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,600	$1.71	45d	1	0.29mi
2808 Lighthouse Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$2,300	$1.97	45d	1	0.30mi
2912 Pitchfork Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1119	$2,100	$1.88	22d	1	0.31mi
5920 Woodpecker Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1669	$3,800	$2.28	45d	1	0.32mi
2808 Longfellow Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,400	$1.69	22d	1	0.32mi
2944 Hidalgo Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$3,800	$2.25	45d	1	0.37mi
2703 Ranch Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,350	$1.42	22d	1	0.49mi
6735 Draw Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,500	$1.22	45d	1	0.56mi
5817 Settler Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,600	$1.83	45d	1	0.57mi
2702 Southwest St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.62mi
6011 Purtis Creek Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1722	$2,900	$1.68	45d	1	0.64mi
2060 Acacia Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$3,100	$1.51	14d	1	0.64mi
6333 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	22d	1	0.72mi
6105 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,700	$1.90	45d	1	0.75mi
2409 Husk St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,800	$1.45	14d	1	0.85mi
2409 Husk St Unit 1 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	14d	1	0.85mi
6801 Baron Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$3,150	$1.53	14d	1	1.00mi
6914 Outlaw Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2123	$3,250	$1.53	14d	1	1.06mi
6812 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	14d	1	1.13mi
6809 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	14d	1	1.14mi
1708 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,550	$1.51	45d	1	1.15mi
1704 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,500	$1.67	22d	1	1.16mi
1621 Revolution Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	45d	1	1.22mi
1508 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,250	$1.43	14d	1	1.30mi
1501 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,750	$1.40	14d	1	1.32mi
1513 San Miguel Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	14d	1	1.36mi
1310 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,400	$1.73	22d	1	1.40mi
1507 Laguna Meadows Trl Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,600	$1.53	45d	1	1.43mi
1412 Mockingbird Ln Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$2,635	$2.75	14d	22	1.44mi
6706 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,800	$1.54	45d	1	1.46mi
1500 Laguna Meadows Trl Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1868	$2,500	$1.34	22d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-03
   remarks 440-char remark
2. 2026-06-03
   listed $278,010 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,573
• − Property taxes: −$4,170
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,565
• − Management: −$2,565
• − Depreciation: −$8,088
• Taxable loss: −$2,286
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$549
• After-tax cash flow: $2,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home with a modern design and open floor plan is ready for move-in. It offers a good condition score and has potential for further value increases through minor exterior and interior updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances security and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B