315 Lawrence St · Adrian, MI 49221

$80,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 1910 3,485 sqft lot Est $107k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready home with fresh paint and flooring throughout. This home is bigger on the inside than it looks. Two bedrooms on main floor and a third bedroom upstairs, along with a loft space provides plenty of options for storage, a play space, office space, or more. Welcome home!

Key facts

• 3,485 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 19 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No additional community amenities provided
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half story; Wood siding construction
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Above-grade finished area listed (880); Full basement
• Exterior features: Publicly maintained road; Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 35; Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliance list provided
• Bedrooms: Total of 6 rooms (bedroom breakdown not provided)
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $538 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 5.7% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#342 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Adrian School District (town): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #370 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.81%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $107,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 Berry St	0.09mi	4/1.5 (+1)	938 (+7%)	8mo	$130,000	$139	72
839 Dennis St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	938 (+7%)	3mo	$90,000	$96	66
121 W Beecher St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+14%)	6mo	$60,000	$60	59
536 Tabor St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	965 (+10%)	8mo	$117,500	$122	58
547 Tabor St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	974 (+11%)	11mo	$55,000	$56	52
209 Sarah St	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	916 (+4%)	11mo	$116,000	$127	47
831 E Maumee St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+14%)	1mo	$143,900	$143	46
637 W Beecher St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	975 (+11%)	5mo	$30,800	$32	44
210 Elm St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (+8%)	12mo	$33,000	$35	42
1169 Division St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	975 (+11%)	2mo	$160,000	$164	42
1157 Division St	0.70mi	3/1.0	975 (+11%)	12mo	$120,000	$123	40
1025 Frank St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,002 (+14%)	14mo	$111,300	$111	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $21,308
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $62,725
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49221

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,077/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $538

Break-even live

Break-even rent $687

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
413 E Maple Ave Unit 2 Adrian, MI	2.0	1.0	652	$1,200	$1.84	23d	1	0.68mi
413 E Maple Ave Unit 1 Adrian, MI	2.0	1.0	826	$1,500	$1.82	23d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $80,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $80,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $80,000 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $80,000 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $80,000 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   historical Active Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Move in ready home with fresh paint and flooring throughout. This home is bigger on the inside than it looks. Two bedrooms on main floor and a third bedroom upstairs, along with a loft space provides plenty of options for storage, a play space, office space, or more. Welcome home!

7. 2026-05-18
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Move in ready home with fresh paint and flooring throughout. This home is bigger on the inside than it looks. Two bedrooms on main floor and a third bedroom upstairs, along with a loft space provides plenty of options for storage, a play space, office space, or more. Welcome home!

8. 2026-05-15
   listed $80,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Move in ready home with fresh paint and flooring throughout. This home is bigger on the inside than it looks. Two bedrooms on main floor and a third bedroom upstairs, along with a loft space provides plenty of options for storage, a play space, office space, or more. Welcome home!

9. 2026-05-15
   listed $80,000 Active 281-char remark

   Show marketing remark (281 chars)

   Move in ready home with fresh paint and flooring throughout. This home is bigger on the inside than it looks. Two bedrooms on main floor and a third bedroom upstairs, along with a loft space provides plenty of options for storage, a play space, office space, or more. Welcome home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,077 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$78/yr (+$6/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,077
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $5,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,320
• After-tax cash flow: $5,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Adrian School District
• NCES district ID: 2601950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,288
• Composite: 25.33/100
• National rank: #7480
• State rank: #370 of 540 in MI

Livability — Adrian

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #8722

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adrian, MI
• City population: 41,041
• Population (ZIP): 41,041

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.64%
• Current HPI: 237.3796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-18 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $80,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $80,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,077 · -20.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.